1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 120316.67 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the beginning of the week and down 5.31% year-on-year.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
On a macro level, the suspension of balance sheet tightening by the Federal Reserve and the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the week triggered a divergence in global liquidity expectations, and the US dollar index fell below the 100 mark in response; The unexpected deterioration of ADP employment data in the United States during the week has pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December to 90%, accelerating the weakening of the US dollar, and coupled with the release of trillions of liquidity by the People’s Bank of China, providing emotional support for commodities.
On the supply side, the global nickel supply presents a pattern of “abundant total but differentiated structure”. Indonesia, as a core driving force for global supply growth, continues to release its nickel iron and hydrometallurgical intermediate production capacity, which is the main source of market surplus pressure. However, there is a temporary tension in the upstream raw material end, and the main nickel ore supplier, the Philippines, has tightened its sea freight ore supply due to the impact of cyclical climate patterns.
On the demand side: The stainless steel industry, a traditional consumer sector, is closely related to the prosperity of industries such as construction and real estate, and its demand continues to be sluggish. The consumption growth of nickel in the field of new energy vehicles has fallen short of expectations. Due to the advantage of lower cost lithium iron phosphate batteries in market competition, the expansion of high nickel ternary power batteries is limited, which has suppressed the consumption growth rate of upstream nickel sulfate and related nickel raw materials. The demand for nickel plates in the fields of alloys, electroplating, etc. is relatively rigid but limited in volume, which cannot drive overall demand.
In summary, with the continuous release of production capacity in Indonesia, the pattern of oversupply in the global nickel market has not changed, while traditional demand areas such as stainless steel have entered a seasonal off-season, making it difficult for actual consumption to sustainably digest high inventory levels. It is expected that the short-term high volatility trend of nickel prices will be the main trend.
| http://www.thiourea.net |