From April 1st to 13th, 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market experienced a slight decline, with prices gradually decreasing from an initial 168000 yuan/ton to a final 166000 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 1.19%. In early April 2026, the domestic antimony ingot market showed an overall operating characteristic of “high volatility and slight decline”. The market played a fierce game of long and short forces, and the supply and demand sides presented a pattern of “tight supply but periodic looseness, weak demand and no obvious increase”. Coupled with limited transmission of international market warming, the price of antimony ingots ultimately fell slightly.
International market: multiple factors providing support for volatility and stabilization
The overall trend of international antimony prices continuing to rebound this cycle is somewhat linked to the domestic market, but the upward space is limited. The overseas market is affected by geopolitical disturbances and potential supply side contraction, resulting in a fluctuating upward trend in prices. The release of essential procurement has provided some support to the market. At the same time, some overseas mining operations are restricted, which also provides bottom support for international antimony prices. However, the overall global terminal demand is weak, and there is a shortage of orders in downstream industries overseas. Coupled with the cautious mentality of some market entities after the price correction in the early stage, the international antimony price lacks upward momentum, and the overall high volatility pattern is maintained. The linkage between domestic and foreign markets has been strengthened, but the transmission effect is relatively limited.
Supply side: overall rigidity is relatively tight, stage wise looseness
The domestic supply of antimony ingots in this cycle presents the characteristics of “overall tightness and phased looseness”, with both core support and short-term drag factors coexisting. From the perspective of raw material supply, domestic antimony mining is subject to the dual constraints of stricter environmental control and tightened mining quotas. Small mines in major production areas such as Hunan and Guangxi have a higher proportion of closures, and the decline in resource grade in core mining areas has led to an increase in mining costs, making it difficult to achieve substantial growth in production; Although the import volume of antimony ore and concentrate increased significantly year-on-year in the first quarter, the import increment did not meet market expectations due to supply fluctuations from major importing countries such as Russia and Myanmar, making it difficult to effectively alleviate the domestic raw material shortage. On the production side, the domestic antimony ingot production increased significantly in March compared to the previous month, leading to a slight accumulation of market inventory in early April. Some smelting enterprises maintained low operating rates due to previous profit compression and unstable raw material supply, and a few even chose to reduce production to avoid risks. In terms of market mentality, leading companies in the industry have maintained firm quotations, and most holders of goods adhere to a high price stance. However, some small and medium-sized merchants have been affected by risk aversion and have engaged in profitable shipping behavior, with low-priced goods flowing into the market, further exacerbating price fluctuations and causing a certain drag on the current antimony price. In addition, the new gold facility in Hunan has been put into operation in the first quarter of 2026, adding effective production capacity. Although it has not been fully released in the short term, it will gradually change the domestic supply pattern in the long term.
Demand side: Weakness as the main core, insufficient downstream support
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
The sustained weakness in demand is the core cause of the slight decline in antimony prices in the current period. Among them, the photovoltaic and antimony oxide related fields, as the core sectors of antimony demand, have performed less than expected, and the overall purchasing atmosphere is light, making it difficult to form effective support for the market.
Antimony oxide: As the core deep processing product of the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide is the mainstream category, mainly used in the field of flame retardants, and also extended to photovoltaic glass, electronic materials and other scenarios. Its market trend is strongly linked with antimony ingots. The continued disturbance of geopolitical conflicts after the year has driven up the prices of related products such as plastics and bromine, resulting in a sharp increase in cost pressure in the flame retardant industry and a significant decline in order volume. As a flame retardant synergist, the demand for antimony oxide is highly linked to the flame retardant industry. Due to the decline in downstream orders, the demand for antimony oxide has also weakened, and related companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards procurement, resulting in few actual transactions. In addition, although the demand for traditional antimony oxide applications such as lead-acid batteries and polyester catalysts has remained stable, there has not been a significant increase, making it difficult to offset the decline in demand in core areas. At the same time, domestic antimony product exports have not shown a significant rebound, coupled with the supply-demand mismatch caused by the increase in raw material imports in the first quarter, further suppressing the demand confidence in the antimony oxide field.
Photovoltaic: As a core demand area for antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass industry has recently shown weak performance, which has significantly dragged down the demand for antimony products. Since April, orders in the photovoltaic glass industry have been consistently low, with production and sales rates remaining low for a long time. The industry’s inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high of nearly 50 days. Some companies have planned to suspend production and maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure. Affected by this, the procurement strategy of enterprises for antimony products such as sodium antimonate tends to be conservative, only maintaining basic essential inventory replenishment, without large-scale new procurement plans, and with a serious shortage of new demand, it is difficult to hedge the downward pressure on antimony prices.
Market outlook: Taking into account both supply and demand as well as international market dynamics, the domestic antimony ingot market is expected to maintain a stable but weak trend with narrow fluctuations in the short term. Factors such as the rebound in international antimony prices, tight domestic supply, and rising prices from leading enterprises will provide bottom support for prices; However, factors such as slow recovery of downstream demand, high inventory in core downstream industries, and market risk aversion will limit the upward space for prices. In the medium term, if the overseas geopolitical situation eases and overseas and domestic demand gradually recovers, antimony prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate strongly; If demand remains weak and low-priced goods continue to flow out, it cannot be ruled out that prices may continue to decline slightly. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the overseas geopolitical situation, the progress of destocking in the photovoltaic glass industry, downstream purchasing sentiment, and the release of production capacity by leading enterprises.
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