With the easing of the situation in the Middle East and the disappearance of crude oil premiums, domestic PTA prices have rapidly rebounded in recent times. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 14th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.79% from a week ago.
The cost side remains the core driving factor, and crude oil fluctuations directly affect market sentiment. On April 8th, the international crude oil market experienced an epic plunge, with WTI and Brent crude oil both falling below the $100/barrel integer mark. WTI’s daily decline exceeded 16%. The core driving force was the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the rapid recovery of the expected navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeding expectations. The market concentrated on clearing the previous geopolitical risk premium, and crude oil and refined oil futures fell sharply simultaneously. At present, there is a slight rebound in the repair.
In April, the industry entered the spring maintenance stage, with leading enterprises gradually shutting down their facilities. The industry’s operating rate has fallen to around 80%, and domestic PTA facilities have entered large-scale maintenance. Domestic supply expectations have decreased, and the performance of the supply side is relatively strong. Inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the tight supply of raw materials in April continues. Some units may still undergo unplanned maintenance, and the tight circulation of spot goods provides support for prices. And there was no new PTA production capacity added throughout the year, and the pressure of long-term supply easing disappeared.
On the demand side, the performance is relatively weak. Currently, the textile industry is in a traditional off-season with insufficient foreign trade orders. The weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continues to operate at a low level, and the accumulation of finished products and rigid demand procurement in the polyester sector are the main factors, which has formed a significant negative feedback on high priced PTA and restricted the upward space of prices. But with the steady increase in production in industries such as soft drinks and the gradual digestion of previous stockpiling, demand will moderately recover. From May to June, we are gradually entering the traditional peak consumption season, and the demand for replenishing inventory is expected to be released. The supply-demand structure may enter a tight balance state. But if raw material prices continue to run at high levels, downstream purchasing intentions may still be suppressed, and there is uncertainty about the extent of demand improvement.
Looking at the future, according to the Business Society Spot News, the current PTA 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average, indicating a downward trend.
In terms of location, it has been at a low level in the past 30 days, but at a medium high level in the past year, indicating that PTA prices may experience a downward trend. We still need to pay close attention to the maintenance progress of PTA units, the trend of crude oil, and the recovery of downstream peak seasons.
| http://www.thiourea.net |