1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 144033.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 13.84%.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 6 times, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, US President Trump arrived in Beijing by special plane and began his visit to China, followed by discussions on tariffs and other related matters; The US PPI surged 1.4% month on month in April, after the March data was also revised upwards to a growth rate of 0.7%.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in April was 35250 tons, a decrease of 5.59% month on month and 3.29% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for May is 33280 tons, a decrease of 5.59% month on month and 7.54% year-on-year
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The weak performance of stainless steel highlights the mentality of steel mills to suppress raw material prices; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, with nickel sulfate prices mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the supply pressure of refined nickel on the real end is not reduced, and the market resources are sufficient. However, due to the constraints of high raw material prices, the refined production schedule in May is expected to slightly decline. The intermediate products of nickel sulfate raw materials have been partially reduced in production, but downstream demand for ternary materials has fallen significantly. Due to the impact of policies and structural crowding out of iron and lithium, there has been no significant increase in orders from ternary precursor and positive electrode material enterprises, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. Overall, macro and Indonesian policies continue to be subject to repeated disturbances, with cost bottoms rising under the support of raw materials. Fundamental constraints are mainly due to the current supply pressure of refined nickel combined with insufficient inventory digestion. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly remain in a range of fluctuations.
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