From June 15th to 22nd, the domestic BDO price dropped from 7933 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.05% during the period, a month on month drop of 6.59%, and a year-on-year drop of 7.80%. Recently, with multiple device maintenance and load reduction measures, there has been an increase in favorable conditions for the supply side, supporting the stability of the market for suppliers. However, due to weak follow-up of terminal demand and poor cost transmission, downstream industries are often struggling to negotiate raw material prices. The BDO market supply and demand negotiation game has led to another decline in the market.
On the supply side, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined to below 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of goods. The trend of the raw material side is relatively strong, and the profit loss is intensifying. And the premium transaction of online bidding supports the stable market mentality of suppliers. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost and calcium carbide, the domestic price of calcium carbide has hit bottom and rebounded. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, downstream stocking enthusiasm has increased. In order to alleviate the pressure on transportation capacity, the waiting for unloading and storage has been strengthened, and the overall market has entered the stage of destocking. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol has significantly declined, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts has led to an increase in future import expectations. Coupled with weak spot fundamentals, prices have plummeted sharply, and downstream buyers are cautious and cautious in their attitude of buying up rather than buying down, resulting in a poor market trading atmosphere. The raw material calcium carbide market is on the rise, while the methanol market is plummeting, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the performance of terminal demand is sluggish, and downstream industries are offering discounts for shipments. The market is fluctuating and falling, and there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. Under the pressure of supply and demand, downstream industries experience a decrease in load, resulting in a reduction in the amount of raw material digestion. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: Strong operation of raw material calcium carbide, low-level oscillation of methanol, and reduced cost pressure on BDO; The downstream PTMEG and PBT industries have experienced a decline in production and a decrease in demand. Overall, Business Society’s BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will remain stagnant after a downturn.
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