The cost has weakened significantly, and the focus of the domestic PTA market has shifted downwards this week (June 15-21). As of June 21st, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 6116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.51% from the beginning of the week.
The international oil price trend has declined. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.79 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.55 per barrel. The expectation of US Iran reconciliation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to ferment, and the geopolitical risk premium will further clear. Oil prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and the market will continue to compete with the progress of channel restart and the pace of increasing crude oil supply.
On the supply side, the industry’s operating rate this week was around 87%. The downstream polyester maintenance equipment is expected to restart, so the industrial inventory continues to decrease, providing support for market prices.
The leading downstream filament manufacturers have maintained the previous collaborative production reduction, and currently the direct spinning filament load is at a new low of 73% during the same period. At present, there are plans to restart the polyester factory next week, and there is no clear expectation of equipment shutdown. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will slightly increase next week. The downstream start-up rate of terminal demand has slightly rebounded, and there may be expectations of seasonal replenishment in the later stage.
Analysts believe that the current PTA market is facing weakened costs, slow supply recovery, and no significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the PTA market will remain weak in the short term.
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