1、 Price trend
On October 31st, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was referenced at 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton or 5.66% compared to October 1st (reference price of cyclohexanone was 10600 yuan/ton).
In October, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong region first stabilized and then rose, followed by a slight correction, and the overall upward trend came to an end. During the National Day holiday, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong remained stable at around 10600 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong quickly rose and continued to rise. By mid month, the market entered a high-level consolidation stage. As the end of the month approached, the price of cyclohexanone slightly fell to around 11200 yuan/ton. As of October 31st, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 11150-11250 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Supply side: In October, some domestic cyclohexanone supporting facilities underwent maintenance and load reduction, leading to a decline in industry production. The market’s spot circulation tightened, factory inventory was low, and there was a strong willingness to raise prices, providing a core driving force for price increases.
In terms of demand: In the first half of the month, downstream factories of cyclohexanone, such as caprolactam, coatings, solvents, etc., urgently need to follow up. During the low price stage, they will concentrate on replenishing inventory and increase transaction volume, which will provide strong support for the market; After the price reaches a high level, downstream procurement tends to be cautious, the willingness to chase high prices weakens, and the pace of purchasing slows down.
Market mentality: The news of tight supply has led to a strong bullish atmosphere in the market, with traders being reluctant to sell and actively following the rise; After the market surged, market sentiment cooled down and prices slightly loosened.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is relatively weak. After the market price rises to a high level, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement may be suppressed. In addition, at the end of the month, the cost raw material market has declined, and the cost bottom support has loosened. The overall positive support may be loosened. It is expected that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will continue to follow the trend at the end of the month, and there is a possibility of a high-level decline in the market. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.
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