1、 Market Overview
This week, the sulfur market continued to decline in the early stage, and after a deep correction, it gradually stopped falling and stabilized. On November 5th, the benchmark price of sulfur was reported at 5274.25 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 1.31% compared to 5344.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.
2、 Fundamental analysis
（1） Cost and inventory side: Building a rigid bottom with limited downward space
The current market is in a deep inverted pattern, with high international costs and low port inventories, creating a rigid bottom for sulfur spot prices that cannot fall, and compressing the space for significant deep declines. The cost side and low inventory provide bottom support for the market, and after the full release of short positions in the early stage, the effectiveness of bottom support gradually becomes prominent, restricting prices from continuing to decline significantly.
（2） Demand side: Weak rigid demand, lacking sustained upward momentum
The demand side constrains the upward trend of the market, with phosphate fertilizer in the off-season and weak downstream demand, making it difficult to provide sustained support for essential needs and drive prices to continue rising. The pressure above the market continues to exist, and even with support at the bottom, the bullish momentum is still limited, making it difficult to break out of the trending upward trend.
（3） Market sentiment: rational operation by industry players, long short tug of war
The market mentality tends to be cautious and rational, with conservative operations and a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. The market has entered a stage of stagnation and tug of war. After a deep pullback in the early stage, bearish forces have been somewhat digested, but a consistent bullish expectation has not yet been formed, and the market maintains a bottom oscillation pattern.
III. Market analysis and judgment
Overall, the sulfur market is currently in a bottom sawing stage, with cost and low inventory forming bottom support and limiting downward space. However, weak demand in the downstream off-season is suppressing upward momentum, and there is currently no trend market. In the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a low volatility operation, with a focus on continuously tracking changes in external market costs, port inventories, and improvements in downstream production and purchasing demand for phosphate fertilizers, in order to observe whether this can trigger a market direction switch.
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