First, the price trend
According to the data of the business community, the price of cobalt in July fluctuated and fell by 5.74%. As of July 31, the average price of cobalt was 498,166.66 yuan / ton, compared with the average price of cobalt at the beginning of the month, 52,8500.00 yuan / ton, the price of cobalt fell by 30,333.34 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.74%, an increase of 24.70% over the same period last year.
Second, the market analysis
Product aspect
In July, the average price of domestic metal cobalt market fell. In July, the price of cobalt sheet (content ≥99.8%) of Wuxi Stainless Steel Trading Center fell. As of July 31, the price of cobalt was 485000-518,000 yuan/ton, which was 535000-568000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the price dropped by 50,000 yuan/ton. The spot cobalt price in the London LEM market fluctuated and fell from $74,500-75,000/ton at the beginning of July to $69,500-70,000/ton, down $5,000/ton. In July, the cobalt market fluctuated and fell. Although there was a short-term rise in the price of cobalt, it was difficult for the enemy to fall.
Policies and regulations
In July, 21 new energy vehicle policies were introduced at the national level. Among them, the Ministry of Finance announced that new energy vehicles are exempt from vehicle and vessel tax, energy-saving vehicles are halved, the Ministry of Communications has intensified the preparation of closed-circuit testing technical documents for self-driving vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a three-year action plan, and the National Standards Committee has Method: National Standards for Soliciting Opinions, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Passenger car companies launch policy opinions such as “double points” transactions. The government concentrated on the new energy vehicle policy in July and vigorously promoted the development of new energy vehicles. The development of new energy vehicles has formed a favorable demand for cobalt market. However, due to the lag of the policy, the market will not respond to the policy in the short term. In the long run, the cobalt market is still optimistic.
Following the US $200 billion tariff, US President Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Friday that he was prepared to impose tariffs on $505 billion of Chinese imports. This is equivalent to all the goods that China exports to the United States. Trump’s remarks will intensify the Sino-US trade war or lead to an escalation of the global trade war. The escalation of the trade war will seriously affect future economic expectations. The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to decline across the board. The growth of cobalt demand will be dragged down sharply. The rise in cobalt prices does not have sufficient support and momentum.
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Data statistics
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 86,000 and 84,000, respectively, an increase of 31.7% and 42.9% over the same period of the previous year. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 413,000 and 412,000 respectively, an increase of 94.9% and 111.5% over the same period of the previous year. The performance of new energy vehicles is still strong, but the growth rate has slowed down compared with the previous period. Strong new energy vehicles have brought growth momentum to cobalt demand, but the slowdown in demand has dealt a fatal blow to the cobalt market. Since the cobalt price in 2017 has risen sharply, there has been a large amount of samarium cobalt for sale in the cobalt market. The courage to produce a large amount of cobalt is mainly due to the strong performance of new energy vehicles. The performance of new energy vehicles is slightly lower than expected. The cobalt market will bear a lot of pressure to sell cobalt, which will affect the rise of cobalt prices.
international firms
Since Matsushita was unable to judge the batteries made of cobalt from Cuba, how many of the batteries entered the US market. Under the influence of US trade sanctions against Cuba, Matsushita’s supply of batteries to Tesla will be affected. Trade sanctions affect the circulation of materials, which increases the cost of cobalt circulation, and promotes the rise of cobalt prices in disguise.
Third, the outlook outlook
In July, the market of cobalt market fluctuated and fell. At the beginning of July, the price of cobalt rose slightly, and it was intended to stop falling. But as time progressed, the market reaction reflected that the rise in cobalt prices was only a false appearance, and the short-term rise was difficult for the enemy to fall. According to the analysis of the data analysts of the business community, the new energy vehicles performed well in June and July, which guaranteed the basic demand of the cobalt market. However, the growth rate of new energy vehicles began to slow down, limiting the strength and speed of the rebound of cobalt prices. The Sino-US trade war continues to heat up, and the deterioration of the international trade environment has made the future macroeconomic development weak, and the risk of negative demand for cobalt in the market has increased. At the same time, trade wars and trade sanctions have also increased the risk of cobalt circulation, which may increase the cost of cobalt circulation and promote the rise of cobalt prices in disguise. It is predicted that the price of cobalt will be adjusted in the future, and the risk of falling cobalt price will increase in the short term. August is a period worthy of attention. The trend of cobalt price in the second half of the year may give a clear signal in August. Investors are worth noting that there will be a more obvious ups and downs in late August.
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