Price trends:
On August 10, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 53.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 20.13% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).
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II. Market analysis:
This week (8.05-8.09) the domestic hydrobenzene market fell. The average domestic market price was 4900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 4850 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 1.02%.
Domestic market: Hydrobenzene enterprises started relatively stable this week, and the domestic market except Shanxi, Hebei and Henan basically started normal. The tender price of crude benzol in the main producing area dropped sharply this week, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton. Market participants were short-sighted. The enthusiasm of entering the market downstream was not high and the transaction was limited. It further suppressed the hydrobenzene market. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic hydrobenzene market in Shandong was 4500-4550 yuan/ton, and the market fell by about 200-250 yuan/ton.
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Industry chain: crude oil rebounded on Thursday after falling this week. By Friday’s close, Brent was 5.93% lower than last Friday, while WTI was 2.34%. Influenced by the trade war at the beginning of the week, market concerns about slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand revived. EIA again lowered its global oil demand forecast and international oil prices fell. On Wednesday, EIA released data showing that U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks had increased and international stocks had plunged as of August 2. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia said it would take measures to stabilize the oil market and stop oil prices falling and rebounding. Pure benzene: Sinopec lowered the listing price of 100 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton of pure benzene on the 5th and 8th respectively; Sinopec lowered the price next day by 250 yuan/ton compared with last week. This week, about 156,000 tons of pure benzene were in stock at the port, up from last week. Influenced by bad news such as crude oil, pure benzol and the softer downstream market, the traders are cautious and wait-and-see in the downstream market. Crude Benzene: There are many negative factors in the market this week, pure benzene outer plate and international crude oil are lower. The market is generally bearish on Sinopec pure benzene future market. In macro aspect, RMB exchange rate breaks 7, friction escalation, pure benzene outer plate continues to decline, market mentality is not good, and the pressure on manufacturers to move goods increases. Demand: downstream hydrobenzene enterprises start relatively stable, but at present manufacturers are not very motivated to purchase, and have digested pre-inventory. In Shanxi, Henan and Hebei, the start-up rate of some hydrobenzene enterprises has not been restored, the downstream demand is limited, and crude benzene lacks downstream support. Supply side: This week, coking enterprises started stably, with a steady start-up rate of about 7-80%. The market is relatively abundant, and there is pressure on coking enterprises to deliver goods.
3. Trend forecast:
Pure benzene and international oil prices both fell this week, the market mentality is not good, pure benzene market inside and outside the market continues to hang upside down short market, although hydrobenzene or dragged by the industrial chain, is expected to weaken next week.
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