I. price trend
According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been declining in the near future. As of October 30, the quotation of the enterprise is about 2800 yuan / ton, down 18.84% from the beginning of the month. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2600 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shandong is about 2700-2850 yuan / ton; the quotation in Hebei is about 2850 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shaanxi is about 2600 yuan / ton; the quotation in Jiangsu is 2700-2. 800 yuan / ton, 2950-3050 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 3000-3050 yuan / ton in South China.
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II. Cause analysis
Product: affected by the weak downstream demand, the recent decline of domestic acetic acid market has not decreased. In Central China, in order to reduce the storage pressure, the enterprise’s shipping intention is strong, and the quotation continues to decrease. Although Tianjin Bohua has frequent maintenance in the near future, how many orders the enterprise will ship has no significant impact on the supply of acetic acid in North China, so the price of acetic acid in the region continues to fall with the market; vinegar in East China Acid enterprises have stable production and abundant spot supply in the market. However, the long-term demand in the downstream market is poor and the negotiation at the export end is limited. In addition, the low price of acetic acid in the field is under pressure, so the price of acetic acid in the field continues to decline.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the downstream receiving mood of methanol market is still poor, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the market is mainly going down, and the on-site trading is light. At present, about 2158 yuan / ton is insufficient to support the price of acetic acid; the trading atmosphere of domestic acetate, vinyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other industries is in a downturn, and under the situation that the raw material acetic acid continues to decline, the industry is bearish; PTA City The demand at the downstream of the plant is light, and the industry’s gas buying is flat. The demand for acetic acid market will be increased when new units are put into operation in the near future.
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International: due to the stable methanol price and relatively balanced supply and demand of acetic acid in North America, the acetic acid market has been in stable operation in the near future, with a current price of about 620 US dollars / ton; the supply and demand contradiction in Asian acetic acid market is obvious, with a recent decline, with a current price of 380-435 US dollars / ton; the supply in European acetic acid market has declined slightly, with a recent high price of about 675 euros / ton.
III. future forecast
According to the acetic acid analyst of business agency, the recent domestic acetic acid market supply-demand contradiction is increasingly prominent, coupled with the lack of raw material price support, and multiple negative factors lead to the continuous weakening of acetic acid price. At present, the profit space of enterprises is insufficient, and the decline is slowing down. Some downstream markets may buy at the bottom, but there is no obvious sign of improvement. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will still operate in a weak position in a short period of time.
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