Trade name: Isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (July 24th): 7633.33 yuan/ton

On July 24, the price of domestic Isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, 200 yuan/ton higher than that on July 21, up 2.69%, down 1.29% year on year. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream market of Neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing Isobutyraldehyde. The trading of Isobutyraldehyde market improved, and the market price rose in shock.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market price will rise in shock, mainly finishing. The average market price is around 7800 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isopropanol fluctuated and increased this week. Last Friday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6870 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 7170 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 4.37%.

The price of isopropanol fluctuated and increased this week. At present, the export situation of isopropanol orders is good. The domestic trading situation is good. The domestic isopropanol market is relatively active, with upstream acetone market prices rising, and cost support driving up the price of isopropanol market. Downstream inquiries are relatively active, and procurement is on demand. The majority of Shandong isopropanol quotations are around 6750-7000 yuan/ton; Most quotations for Jiangsu isopropanol range from 7300 to 7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market has risen rapidly since July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the negotiated price of acetone market in East China was 5200-5250 yuan/ton on July 1, and the market price rose to 5850 yuan/ton on July 20, with a cumulative increase of 13.51%. Under the tight supply of goods in the market and the difficulty of improving in the short term, the enthusiasm of intermediate traders to enter the market has increased, the willingness of inventory has increased, and the inquiry atmosphere of major downstream factories to enter the market has improved significantly, The market center of gravity continues to rise.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was initially suppressed and then rose this week, with a slight overall decline. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 6608 yuan/ton, while the average price on the weekend is 6550 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.65%. Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that overall, international oil prices are uncertain, but downstream demand support is obvious. It is expected that the propylene market will be stronger in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that currently, export orders are good and domestic trading is active. The price of acetone has increased, and the raw material provides strong support for isopropanol. It is expected that isopropanol will operate steadily and improve in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the epoxy propane market fluctuated and rose in the first half of 2023. On January 1, 2023, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 8966.67 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9600.00 yuan/ton, with a market increase of 7.06% within six months.

First quarter: In January, the cost support was average, with no pressure on the supply side, and the demand side mainly needed to follow up. Before the holiday, downstream stocking was concentrated, and the epoxy propane market rose narrowly. In February, the raw material propylene experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, leading to an increase in the price of raw material liquid chlorine and cost support. Some units underwent load reduction and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. The demand side remained on the sidelines to follow up, and the epoxy propane market was operating strongly. In March, there was no pressure on the supply side, supporting the rise of market prices. In the latter half of the year, cost support weakened, and shipments from factories in production were average. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the epoxy propane market was weak and organized.

Q2: The cost side had little impact in April, while the demand side remained flat and followed up, resulting in a narrow downward trend in the market. In May, the epoxy propane market fluctuated slightly. In the first half of the month, there were some fluctuations on the supply side, and the market supply and demand pattern was tight. The demand side watched and followed moderately, while the supply side had no pressure to support the strong operation of the epoxy propane market. In the second half of the month, as the price of raw material propylene fell, the raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated at a low level. In addition, the supply side capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded, and the demand side reduced and followed up, leading to a weakening of the epoxy propane market. In June, the demand side mainly followed up with a moderate amount of rigid demand, while changes in supply side devices affected the market, causing fluctuations and declines in the epoxy propane market.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30, the average spot price of domestic propylene was 6518.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.03% from the 7244.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

Entering July, the epoxy propane market has stabilized and organized, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Currently, there is some support for the cost side, with the supply side being mainly stable. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may be on the sidelines for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon rose first and then fell. Due to the expectation of limited electricity due to high temperature weather, the resumption of production in Sichuan region is slow, and silicon factories continue to suffer losses, leading to a rebound in the price of metal silicon. However, the downward quotation from major factories in Xinjiang has dragged down market sentiment, and silicon prices have fallen again. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 13630 yuan/ton, down 0.80% on a week on month basis. In the futures market, SI2309 rose or fell by 3.37% throughout the week, closing at 13665 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13000-13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Port of Tianjin is 12900-13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, with an average of 114050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13500-13700 yuan/ton, with an average of 13600 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 13800-14100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13950 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of July 13th, there were 315 silicon metal furnaces operating, with an overall start-up rate of 42.76%, an increase of 5 furnaces compared to the previous month. Further response from silicon factories in the northwest region, some companies in Sichuan have delayed resuming production due to restrictions on film production, while the number of furnaces opened in Yunnan remains stable. The overall number of furnaces has increased slightly, and the supply is still relatively loose.

In terms of demand:

This week, the price of polycrystalline silicon has bottomed out and stabilized, with the mainstream range of 60-75000 yuan/ton for single crystal dense materials of grade one solar energy. Recently, the supply pressure in the silicon material market has eased, but demand is relatively weak, and prices have clearly bottomed out. It is expected that prices will still hover low in the near future, and the probability of an upward trend in the short term is not high.

The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is 13660 yuan/ton, and DMC prices continue to decline. The imbalance between supply and demand of organic silicon remains unchanged, and some individual factories plan to undergo maintenance. The weekly operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry remained flat, as the terminal entered the off-season and the procurement of metal silicon slightly weakened.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there is currently some interference from high temperature power restrictions on the supply side, and due to cost inversion, silicon factories have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, the impact of limited films is limited, and the overall supply side of metal silicon is increasing, while the demand side is still sluggish. Coupled with the large overall inventory volume, silicon prices are being suppressed.

Cobalt prices have fallen from their high levels this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of July 14th, the cobalt price was 304100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to July 7th, when the cobalt price was 301300 yuan/ton; The cobalt price decreased by 0.49% compared to 305600 yuan/ton on July 11th. Downstream demand support still exists, and the news of the landing of collection and storage cannot be confirmed. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the support for the continuous rise of cobalt prices is limited. This week, domestic cobalt prices have retreated from their high levels.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 32.8% and 35.2%, and a market share of 30.7%. The sales of new energy vehicles have significantly increased, and the demand for cobalt in the market has increased. Downstream customers still have purchasing enthusiasm, and traders have a strong willingness to negotiate.

International cobalt price rise slows down

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in July, MB cobalt prices fluctuated and rose, but the rise in cobalt prices slowed down. In July, the international market entered the summer break stage, and there was a large demand for electrolytic cobalt replenishment in the international market. The rise in international cobalt prices slowed down, and the upward momentum of domestic cobalt prices weakened.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of Business Society, believes that new energy vehicles are growing steadily, the demand for cobalt is growing, and in terms of supply, the United States House of Representatives has proposed a bill to develop a U.S. national strategy to ensure the Supply chain security of Congo’s cobalt minerals, or affect domestic cobalt raw material supply. The news of cobalt storage has stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, but the implementation of cobalt storage has not been confirmed yet, providing limited support for the continued rise of cobalt prices. Overall, the rebound in demand is difficult to exceed expectations, and the supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced. The support for the rise in cobalt prices is limited, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate strongly in the future.