The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the DBP price was 9537.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.53% compared to the price of 8787.50 yuan/ton on July 1. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, while DBP raw materials such as butanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP has increased, while PVC has continued to rise. The demand for plasticizers has rebounded, and the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and increased in July.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9983.33 yuan/ton on July 31, an increase of 6.77% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, resulting in an increase in the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials and a surge in plasticizer DBP prices.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97% compared to the price of 7316.67 yuan/ton on July 1. The supply of n-butanol has increased, and downstream demand has slightly rebounded. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has remained stable. The supply of n-butanol has increased, and demand has rebounded. In July, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizers has increased. In the future, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

PVC prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the PVC product market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 31, the PVC quotation was 5796.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.30% compared to the PVC price of 5505 yuan/ton on July 1. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, PVC costs have increased, and PVC prices have fluctuated and increased in July; The postponement of two policies in the “16 Financial Regulations” will help promote the completion and delivery of real estate projects, leading to an expected increase in PVC demand, a rebound in downstream demand, and an increase in the cost of plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of crude oil has increased, and the supply of butanol and octanol is tight. In July, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol fluctuated and increased, while the prices of ortho benzene and phthalic anhydride have increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP products has increased, and the driving force for DBP growth has increased; The price of PVC has risen, the demand for PVC continues to grow, the demand for plasticizers continues to rise, and the driving force for the price increase of plasticizer DBP has increased. In the future, as DBP costs rise and demand rebounds, it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

In July, the trichloromethane market first fell and then rose, and the overall market rose slightly. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 29, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2062 yuan/ton, 1.85% higher than 2025 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 14.58% higher than the cycle low of 1800 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol rose in shock, and the cost center of trichloromethane rebounded slightly; In the first ten days of the year, the centralized replenishment order of chloroform ended, and some R22 enterprises stopped for maintenance. The demand side of chloroform weakened again, and the price fell; In the middle of the year, driven by the high cost of methanol and liquid chlorine, the price of chloroform rebounded; The pressure on the supply side of chloroform is expected to increase in the next ten days, and the price will stabilize temporarily after rising.

In July, the methane chloride unit slightly decreased in the early stage of operation, and slightly increased after some units were restarted in the later stage. In the later stage, the supply pressure of the new Jiuhong unit is expected to increase again.

In July, the price of raw methanol rose in shock, and the cost of chloroform strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2281 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% from 2180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2137 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2314 yuan/ton.

The domestic downstream refrigerant R22 quota digestion schedule is expected to rise in advance of the price, but some enterprises stop for maintenance and start at a low level, and the demand for chloroform is just limited; Methane chloride is low before commencement and high after commencement, and chloroform supply is loose in the later period; In the short term, the supply and demand surface of chloroform is weak. Overall, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023, and the overall domestic demand for chloroform will be weak.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business society, the demand for chloroform at the end of the peak season is generally weak, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to increase in the later period, but the higher methanol price is supported by the cost side, and the chloroform market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

Product Name: Urea

Latest price (July 27th): 2545.71 yuan/ton

On July 27th, the comprehensive price of urea in China slightly increased, increasing by 80.71 yuan/ton or 3.27% compared to July 26th, with a year-on-year increase of 4.76%. The price of upstream Yangquan Anthracite (washing block) is about 1010 yuan/ton, rising slightly, with good cost support. International urea prices have risen, and India has released a new round of bidding information, driving up domestic urea prices. At the same time, agricultural demand is good, while industrial demand is mainly for procurement. Urea supply is sufficient, and manufacturers issue orders smoothly.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 2600 yuan/ton.

Recently (7.15-7.26), chloroform market rose first and then stabilized. According to the data of the business society, as of July 26, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong Province was 2050 yuan/ton, up 13.89% from 1800 yuan/ton in the middle of the month. On the whole, the rise in the early period was stable in the later period. The price of methanol as raw material decreased slightly, and the cost support of chloroform weakened slightly; In the off-season, some equipment maintenance enterprises in the downstream often make inquiries on demand, and the transaction in the trichloromethane market is flat; The recent commencement of methane chloride plant has slightly decreased, and the inventory of enterprises is low, which has promoted the price of chloroform to rise in the early stage; However, as the supply pressure of new units is expected to rise slightly in the later period, the trichloromethane market is suppressed.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the operation of methane chloride plants has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the later stage.

The price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost center of trichloromethane decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 26th, the spot price of methanol was 2255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.52% from the mid month price of 2314 yuan/ton.

Some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises’ parking and maintenance prices rose slightly, and their demand for chloroform was limited. In addition, the total production quota of R22 in 2023 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons. In the medium and long term, it is difficult to improve the demand support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business society, the overall domestic demand support for chloroform is weak at present, and the supply side is expected to increase, so the chloroform market is expected to decline slightly in the later period.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 25th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 8137 yuan/ton in the middle of the month. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 7900 to 8100 yuan/ton. The fluctuation in raw material prices has slightly increased, with limited support for acrylonitrile; The low starting point of downstream construction fluctuates slightly, resulting in limited demand for acrylonitrile; The supply side slightly declined, providing weak support for the acrylonitrile market. After rising in the first half of the month, the price of acrylonitrile has been sluggish and has slightly declined recently.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the operating rate of domestic acrylonitrile has slightly decreased to below 60%.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the raw material propylene market has experienced slight fluctuations and has risen, with weak cost support for acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 25th, the domestic propylene price was at 6595 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% from the mid-month price of 6520 yuan/ton. The low point during the cycle was 6458 yuan/ton, and the high point was 6595 yuan/ton.

It is understood that downstream ABS prices have risen this week, and the start of construction is around 8.2%; Part of the Nitrile rubber orchidization plant was restarted, and the industry started to increase slightly recently, while the acrylic fiber started to maintain a low level. Overall, the construction of downstream units in multiple industries of acrylonitrile is in a low and slightly fluctuating state, with demand supporting acrylonitrile but still weak in the short term.

Future Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that in the future, there will be slight relief in supply pressure, support in demand, but it is difficult to significantly strengthen, and limited cost support. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.