The metal silicon market is weak and seeking stability in April. At the beginning of the month, there was strong pessimism in the metal silicon market, and the demand side was sluggish. Silicon prices were still constantly exploring low. In the middle and late stages, the sentiment of reducing production in the northwest has fermented, providing support for prices. As the end of the month approaches, the southwest region is about to enter a flood season, with electricity prices moving downwards and the cost of metal silicon expected to decrease. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 28th, the national quotation for metal silicon was 16140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.44% from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

On the supply side

It is understood that as of April 21, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 41.64%, with 299 furnaces opened, 147 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 20 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 36 furnaces opened in Yunnan. This month, the electricity price in the northwest region was increased from 0.38 yuan/kWh to 0.42 yuan/kWh. Due to high costs, many silicon companies have maintenance plans. There is a possibility for electricity prices to be lowered after the May Day holiday in the southwest region. Some silicon factories plan to resume production, but currently the price of metal silicon is at a low level, and the willingness of factories to resume work is not strong.

Inventory aspect

As of April 21, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three regions was 119000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the end of last month. Among them, Kunming Port is more obvious in terms of inbound shipments, while Southwest Silicon Enterprises have generally experienced cost inversion, resulting in a decrease in inbound shipments.

In terms of demand

Downstream polycrystalline silicon prices are weak, with the mainstream range of single crystal density reaching 1700-185000 yuan/ton. The supply of polycrystalline silicon was abundant in April, and the operating rate of enterprises remained at a medium high level. Although two enterprises underwent equipment maintenance during the month, the production still increased compared to last month, and the support for metal silicon demand is still acceptable.

In April, the organic silicon DMC market was operating weakly, with a reference price of 15080 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is also weak and hovering. The price is at the cost line, and most companies are wait-and-see about metal silicon, with a few companies just in need of procurement.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not strong, and most of them are buying at low prices. The metal silicon industry still faces pressure from oversupply. After the May Day holiday, it will enter a flat water period and the electricity price will be lowered to a certain extent. However, the water level in the south is still low, and the short-term electricity price reduction may not be as expected. The sentiment for resuming production in the southwest is relatively low. Therefore, without significant positive news support, it is expected that the short-term silicon price will be weak and maintain stable operation.

Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 27, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18580 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.40%. Compared to the beginning of the month (April 1), the aluminum price was 18676.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%.

In the long run, after the current high price has fallen, it has been fluctuating sideways within the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton. In mid April, aluminum prices improved, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton within the month, and starting to decline this week.

Overview of recent market trends and motivations

The insufficient precipitation in the southwest and northwest has triggered a trend of reduced production of electrolytic aluminum, driving up the early aluminum price market. Recently, the hype has been released. On the macro level, American consumer confidence has dropped to the lowest level since last July. Concerns about the banking crisis have flared again. The problem of the US debt ceiling is approaching. Domestic consumption data is weak, policy side stimulus is limited, and the global economic outlook is bleak. The overall performance of the consumer end is average, causing continuous pressure on aluminum prices, with aluminum prices dropping slightly from their high levels.

Clear inventory removal within the month

Inventory data: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly in April. Inventory data shows that as of April 24th, the social inventory of mainstream regions in China was 838000 tons, a decrease of 132000 tons compared to the inventory of 220000 tons removed on March 30th and the historical inventory of the same period in April 2022.

General export situation

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in March 2023, China exported 497400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 1.3778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. In March, China imported 205500 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 574800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

In terms of downstream aluminum products: In the first quarter of 2023, the total export volume of aluminum products in China was approximately 1.312 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%; The year-on-year decline in aluminum exports in March was significant, mainly due to a 23.5% year-on-year decrease in plate and strip exports. Other sectors recorded an increase year-on-year, with aluminum profile exports significantly increasing both month on month and year on year.

Domestic production slightly increased

The production of electrolytic aluminum in March was 3.367 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 10.102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.

The aluminum production in March was 5.789 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; The cumulative production from January to March was 14.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.

The aluminum alloy production in March was 1.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 3.129 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.

Future market forecast

From the supply side perspective, production remained stable in April, and inventory data showed a clear trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The main game point currently lies in the actual supply and demand changes in the later stage. It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate around 18800 yuan/ton in the short term, and we will be watching downstream consumption intensity in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from the Business Society, copper prices first fell, then rose, and then fell in April. At the beginning of the month, copper prices were 69680 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, copper prices fell to 67573.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 3.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.60%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, copper futures prices in April were generally higher than spot prices, with the main contract being the expected price in two months, and the overall copper market in April was bearish. Towards the end of the month, the main basis has increased, which is a bearish scenario for buying and hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell first and then opened in April, which corresponds to the rise and then fall of copper prices in April, and overall inventory is still at a historical low.

Macro aspect: In April, the overall overseas economic data was bleak, with the US CPI in March lower than expected and the PPI in March growing by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected. As the May interest rate meeting approaches and expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike continue to rise, the market is gradually starting to price the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut to be later than market expectations.

In terms of supply: The disturbance in the supply side of raw materials has decreased, the supply of copper concentrate is loose, new domestic production capacity has been put into operation, some smelters have been overhauled but raw materials have been replenished in advance, and the overall output is still increasing. In March, China’s electrolytic copper production reached 951400 tons, an increase of 43600 tons compared to the previous month, a growth rate of 4.8%, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, and an increase of 1900 tons compared to the expected 949500 tons. It is expected that China’s electrolytic copper production will reach 953900 tons in April. Processing fees have rebounded from a decline, and although some smelting enterprises have undergone maintenance, the supply of raw ore and cold materials is sufficient, and the smelting output remains high.

In terms of demand: March April is the traditional peak season for consumption, but the copper rod operating rate has continued to decline recently, and the overall copper material operating rate has not exceeded seasonal performance. Real estate shows a recovery, but recently there has been a decrease in home viewing. Considering lag, subsequent transactions may slow down; New energy vehicle companies have overdrawn their demand for raw materials due to subsidies for accelerating work before the recession, and the reduction in fuel prices has also suppressed some new energy consumption. The slowdown in new energy has affected the demand for copper foil and some copper rods; Air conditioning has high emissions but needs to be verified. After experiencing a sharp decline in copper prices in March and a brief surge in downstream orders, subsequent consumption was overdrawn in advance. After mid April, new orders significantly weakened, and there is a risk of further weakness in the future after entering the off-season.

Based on the above situation, in April, copper supply increased and overall demand was relatively strong, showing a sluggish peak season. High prices of copper continue to suppress demand performance, and the actual consumption power of the spot end has recovered less than in the first quarter. Downstream buying is not strong, spot trading is stagnant, and copper inventory destocking has slowed down. In May, entering the traditional consumption off-season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in May.

The price of ethylene oxide decreased in April

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 25, 2023, the average spot market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.72% compared to the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price center of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer has shifted downward. The production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high, and the demand for ethylene oxide is weakened.

Future Market Forecast

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the production capacity utilization rate of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high; The demand for ethylene oxide is expected to deteriorate. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend, with weak fluctuations being the main trend.

Product name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (April 24th): 3400 yuan/ton

On April 24, the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market rose slightly, 50 yuan/ton or 1.49% higher than that on April 21. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3100-3300 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton. The international potassium fertilizer market has slightly declined. The downstream market for potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has recently experienced a slight decline, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

In the future, domestic potassium chloride prices may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The import market value of potassium chloride is about 3200 yuan/ton.