According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on April 23 was 97.30, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 31.79% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 points (2021-11-01), and an increase of 15.39% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to April 1st, 2019 to present)

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market for polyaluminum chloride has been declining for more than three consecutive months and is still continuing its downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the week of April 17-23, 2023, the solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China continued to fluctuate slightly and decline. On April 17, the market reported 1828.75 yuan/ton, while on April 23, the market reported 1800 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.57%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient spot inventory. Downstream procurement demand continues to be weak, and market transactions are average. The market for polyaluminum chloride continues to be weak.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market remained stable at around 198 yuan/ton from April 17th to 23rd. From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has significantly declined, and cost support is insufficient; The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. It is expected that hydrochloric acid will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, domestic liquefied natural gas prices remained volatile and upward from April 17th to 23rd. Among them, on April 17th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4206 yuan/ton, and on April 23rd, the average price was 4524 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.56%. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has been improving, and downstream stocking demand is constantly increasing. The increase in raw gas prices has led to positive cost support and a strong bullish atmosphere in the industry. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to rise in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: The market for raw material hydrochloric acid has remained stable in the near future, with increased fuel costs and increased cost support. However, due to the current abundant stock of polyaluminum chloride in the market, downstream demand continues to be weak under the current economic situation, and market transactions continue to be weak. It is expected that the future market for polyaluminum chloride will continue to decline slightly in a stable manner.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Friday (April 14th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has remained high and stable. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has dropped, and the market for raw material methanol is relatively strong. The cost support is limited. The downstream pesticide, rubber, leather, and pharmaceutical industries purchase goods according to market demand, with rigid demand being the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On April 18, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly, 13.33 yuan/ton, 5.03% lower than that on April 17, 79.11% lower than that on the same period last year; Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on April 18th was 2540.83, a decrease of 0.81% compared to April 1st (2561.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, and market transactions are mainly based on demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8139.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% compared to April 1st at 7636.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton.

As of April 18th, the mainstream factory price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7914.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08% compared to April 1st at 7604.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

On April 18th, the naphtha commodity index was 100.45, an increase of 0.15 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.42% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.81% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In April, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and increased, and the terminal restructuring just needed replenishment. Some ethylene demand was concentrated and released, and refineries were actively shipping, resulting in good market trading.

The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen. On the one hand, on April 2nd, Saudi Arabia, together with several major oil producing countries, announced a voluntary reduction of over 1.6 million barrels per day from May to the end of 2023 outside the OPEC+agreement. This news has affected a significant increase in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased, boosting international oil prices. Data released by the US Department of Labor shows a decrease in US March CPI data, which means that the pace of inflation in the US has slowed down, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased. Investors expect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle to come to an end, which has affected the trend of international oil prices. Finally, the strong demand for crude oil in China has further strengthened the market’s bullish expectations.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to rise in April. On April 1st, the price of toluene was 7080.00 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, it was 7590.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.20%. The market news has strong support, and there is a strong positive atmosphere in the toluene market. The attitude of the industry towards high prices remains unchanged. The price of mixed xylene continues to rise, with a price of 7570 yuan/ton on April 1st and 7880 yuan/ton on April 18th, an increase of 4.10%. The price of PX has increased. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.10%. Recently, the overall operation of the PX device has been stable, and the supply of goods on site is normal. The sales situation is good, the market is stable, and the price trend is temporarily stable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the price of refined naphtha in April has fluctuated and increased, mainly due to the increase in international crude oil prices and the urgent need for terminal restructuring replenishment. Some ethylene demand has been released in a concentrated manner, but currently international crude oil prices have fallen. The release of terminal demand has been basically completed in the early stage, and refinery inventory is low, with active shipments. It is expected that refined naphtha will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business society, the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium market was 3136 yuan/ton on April 10, and 3126 yuan/ton on April 17. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 0.32% this week.

According to the data from the business society, the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3987 yuan/ton on April 10, and the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3943 yuan/ton on April 17. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 1.11% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have fallen, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is sluggish, with few new orders traded. As of April 17th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3100 yuan/ton, the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3150 yuan/ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 3050-3150 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

The price of diammonium phosphate has dropped this week. The prices of raw materials continue to weaken, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is light, with small purchases being the main focus, and market trading performance is average. As of April 17th, 64% of the diammonium market in Hubei region has quoted around 3950 yuan/ton, while 64% of the diammonium market in Yungui region has quoted around 3880-4200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction has been negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur has dropped this week. The sulfur market in East China continues to be weak and downward, with domestic refineries operating normally and market supply stable. The end industry has entered a off-season, with weak downstream demand and poor refinery sales. Enterprise quotations have been lowered to stimulate shipments, but downstream purchasing is limited and the market lacks positive support, resulting in a weak sulfur trend.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market this week was slightly weak and moving downwards. The overall downstream demand side of the domestic phosphorus ore market is showing a weakening trend. Due to the weak and downward trend of the downstream yellow phosphorus market, the trading atmosphere in the yellow phosphorus market is light, and the demand support for phosphorus ore from below has become loose. Therefore, some phosphorus ore enterprises in Yunnan region continue to lower the price of whole phosphorus ore this week, with a decrease of around 10-50 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the price of ammonium phosphate raw materials has weakened recently, resulting in a bearish cost side. At present, the performance of terminal demand is insufficient, and the procurement volume has decreased. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is poor. It is expected that the weak and volatile operation of ammonium phosphate prices will be the main trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data from Business Society, as of April 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7137 yuan/ton, which is 7450 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on April 10th. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased by 4.19%.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of April 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7350 yuan/ton, which is 2.22% lower than the reference average price of 7516 yuan/ton on April 10th.

2、 Market analysis

Phosphoric acid prices continued to decline this week. At present, the phosphoric acid market continues to operate weakly. Raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus continue to have a weak market, with prices falling and cost support weak. Downstream demand remains weak, with a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of April 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6850-7200 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6900-7200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6750-8000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is not good, and there is light demand on the market. Some enterprises are parking, and the operating rate of yellow phosphorus is slowly decreasing. The on-site inventory is still acceptable, and the supply and demand are still relatively stagnant. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and the actual order will be discussed in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with moderate stocking and a focus on immediate demand. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 26000-29000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market this week was slightly weak and moving downwards. The overall downstream demand side of the domestic phosphorus ore market is showing a weakening trend. Due to the weak and downward trend of the downstream yellow phosphorus market, the trading atmosphere in the yellow phosphorus market is light, and the demand support for phosphorus ore from below has become loose. Therefore, some phosphorus ore enterprises in Yunnan region continue to lower the price of whole phosphorus ore this week, with a decrease of around 10-50 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the current market trend of phosphoric acid raw materials is not good, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will continue to be weak in the short term due to the uncertainty. It is suggested to wait and see the trend of raw materials.