DBP prices rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 6, the DBP price was 9587.50 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from 9775 yuan/ton on February 27. This week, the plasticizer DBP enterprises started to recover, the supply of DBP was stable, the basic support for the rise of raw material prices remained, and the price of DBP rose in shock this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of March 6, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8475 yuan/ton, up 1.80% from the price of 8325 yuan/ton on February 27. The price of o-xylene rose, and the willingness of phthalic anhydride to stand up was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose in shock this week, and the DBP had a strong upward momentum.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 6, the price of n-butanol was 7400 yuan/ton, up 5.21% from 7033.33 yuan/ton on February 27. This week, n-butanol enterprises started to recover, and n-butanol intra-field trading resumed. The price of n-butanol rose in shock this week, and the cost of DBP rose. The momentum of DBP rise in the future is large.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DBP data analysts of Business News Agency, plasticizer enterprises started to recover this week, and DBP supply was sufficient; In terms of raw materials, phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the price of n-butanol rose sharply, and the cost of DBP raw materials rose; In terms of demand, downstream customers are looking for bargains to replenish stocks, and the demand for DBP is slowly recovering this week. In the future, the demand for plasticizer DBP rose slowly and the price of DBP is expected to rise slightly.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black price was 11733 yuan/ton on March 3, and the domestic carbon black market price fluctuated slightly this month.

Cost side: The current high price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material has been consolidated, and some coke enterprises are limited to start operation due to the impact of environmental protection inspection. The supply of coke enterprises is reduced, and the supply of coal tar market is still tight, presenting a situation of tight supply and high price. Carbon black enterprises are under great pressure to receive goods. Most enterprises are in a loss situation, and the resistance to coal tar is rising. However, coke enterprises have a strong willingness to support the price, and it is expected that the decline of coal tar price will be limited..

Supply and demand: At present, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises is stable, and some carbon black enterprises plan to raise production. The market supply is sufficient.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the overall operating rate has increased, and the purchase is just needed, but there is still resistance to the current carbon black price, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

In general, the high price of high temperature coal tar as raw material supports the price of carbon black. At present, the demand for carbon black from downstream tire enterprises is increasing. On the whole, the favorable factors in the market occupy the top position. It is comprehensively estimated that the carbon black market will be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the PP market fluctuated and sorted out in February, with the number of wire drawing brands falling more or less. As of February 28, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7925 yuan/ton, up and down by – 0.52% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the propylene market rose and fell in February, with two peaks. The first peak appeared in the first ten days of February, because the price was relatively low, the downstream position was closed at a low level, and the upstream inventory was controllable. Supported by demand, the price of propylene in Shandong rose, but the demand was soon suppressed, and the price fell quickly. The second wave peak occurred in late February. Due to the frequent news of upstream parking, the supply side reduced expectations, and the news support, the price of propylene in Shandong Province was actively pushed up, but the downstream response was general, especially the serious loss in the polypropylene industry, and the start of construction fell to a low level, which was difficult to drive the demand for propylene, leading to a rapid fall in the price of propylene again. Propylene is currently supported by costs, and is expected to fall in a limited space in the short term, mainly due to weak shocks.

The price of propylene fluctuated and consolidated, which generally supported the cost side of PP. In terms of industry load, PP enterprises were affected by the weakening of profits in February, and the high starting point fell back, but the overall industry load reduction was limited, the supply was stable, and the supply of goods on the site was relatively sufficient. The supply pressure increased within the month, and the factory price of the manufacturer was reduced due to the continuous operation of the supplier to go to the warehouse. In terms of demand, in February, the resumption process of downstream PP enterprises in China was slow, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises was less than 40%, and the stock situation of the terminal enterprises was not as expected, and procurement was mainly based on demand.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 28, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell in a narrow range. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7900 yuan/ton, with a rise of – 1.46% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 7.42% year-on-year. At present, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, have a low load, and the demand of terminal enterprises is weak. The digestion speed of non-woven end products is general, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP is poor. The spot price market is similar to that of wire drawing material, and it is expected that it will remain volatile in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market fell significantly in February. As of February 28, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 9533.33 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease was – 4.67%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 1.89%. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials is more beneficial, and in February it fell back and stabilized. The overseas demand has no obvious boost, and the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the moment when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market fell in a narrow range in February. The price of raw material propylene fluctuated and the cost side support was general. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to be just needed to maintain production, and they need to digest the stock of raw materials before festivals after resuming work, so the demand release is weak. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 28 was 104.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 27.05% from the highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 23.40% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China fell sharply in February, with a monthly decline of about 2.22%: the market price was 1968.75 yuan/ton on the 1st and 1925 yuan/ton on the 28th. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the demand for downstream purchase orders is weak, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride support is insufficient, and the market price is mainly downward.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose slightly this month. The price of hydrochloric acid rose from 154.00 yuan/ton on February 1 to 166.00 yuan/ton on February 28, up 7.79%. The price at the end of the month fell 37.59% year-on-year. In general, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose sharply, the cost support was good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride was general. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell first and then rose in February: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 1 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly decrease of 0.13%; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 6090 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest price of the stage is 5724 yuan/ton on the 10th or so, with the monthly maximum amplitude of 6.01%. As the weather warms, demand decreases, market support weakens, and the market is temporarily negative, it is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to decline in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw material market is stable and slightly upward, but due to the continued weakness of downstream demand and the sufficient inventory of manufacturers from the year before, the supply is more than the demand is less, and the market support is unfavorable. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will continue to be weak in the near future.

Overview of trend of magnesium metal in February

In February, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 21200-22000 yuan/ton, and the average price in the cycle was 21753.09 yuan/ton, with a rise and fall of -2.88%. In the first half of the month, the demand recovered slowly and the price of raw material coke declined, while the price of magnesium gradually declined. The price of magnesium ingots fell to around 21100-21300 yuan/ton due to the downward quotation of magnesium manufacturers and the strong competitive atmosphere of manufacturers. In the later part of the month, the price of magnesium fluctuated. Due to the safety time of coal mines in Inner Mongolia, the price of raw coal and blue charcoal rose, and the price of some factories increased. At the end of the month, it is not ruled out that some magnesium factories need to return money due to the squeeze of supply, which will have a certain impact on the price.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the spot exchange of magnesium ingot market including tax was 21366.67 yuan/ton, down about 700 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, down 2.88%, down 53.55% from last year.

Ferrosilicon fell 4.41% in February

On the 27th, the average market price in Ningxia was 7804.29 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon market continued to decline in February, and the whole market has been in a downturn. In the early stage, due to the decline in the futures market and the reduction in the price of raw materials, the spot market of ferrosilicon continued to decline under the conditions of many adverse factors. However, in the afternoon of the 22nd, a sudden collapse accident occurred in the Alashan open-pit coal mine in Inner Mongolia. The price of lump coal in the affected areas accelerated and the price of blue charcoal also increased accordingly. This has supported the cost of magnesium ingots, and the market sentiment has also improved.

On the 27th, the mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in Shenmu market was 1250-1550 yuan/ton, and the coke surface was 900-1250 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in Fugu market is 1220-1600 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 940-1300 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the price center of magnesium ingot moved down in February, and the price of coal and blue coke moved up when affected by emergencies, but the downstream demand did not break through substantially and the price support of ferrosilicon for personal leave was insufficient. It is expected that the magnesium ingot market will operate in a weak and stable manner in the short term,