According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of October 18, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 998 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 970 yuan/ton), the price increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89%.

After the National Day holiday, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has slightly increased. Entering this week, the overall high consolidation operation of the phosphorus ore market has not changed much in terms of supply and demand. The overall supply of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in some regions is still tight, while downstream demand remains stable, with most of the orders already in demand and pre orders. Currently, the overall price of phosphorus ore in the field has not changed much. As of October 18, the domestic 30 grade phosphorus ore market price reference is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is mild, and downstream demand is relatively stable. Winter warehousing has not been fully opened yet. Although the supply side can still provide some support to the market, the phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall rise and fall of the domestic phosphate ore market is limited, and the market will mostly operate at high levels for consolidation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly increased. As of the 17th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3781.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.68% compared to the 8th, and the price is currently at a high level within the year.

Supply side: Frequent safety inspections, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, some areas have encountered mining accidents, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. Some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines, The shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, making it difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations. The spot supply of fluorite is tight, and the price trend of fluorite market is deceiving money.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid procurement is not active, refrigerant market is temporarily stable

The recent trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid prices has been mainly stable, with the mainstream prices negotiated in various regions of the country ranging from 11400 to 11800 yuan/ton. Recently, some units are still in shutdown, with hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, but resistance to high priced raw materials has increased, and procurement is not active. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have reported serious losses, and downstream resistance has intensified, To some extent, it limits the growth of the fluorite market.

The market for downstream refrigerant products in the terminal is mainly stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 is temporarily stable. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, with stable prices and strong reluctance to sell. However, the situation of new orders is not ideal, coupled with strong costs, and the actual changes in the export market are not significant. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 27000-29000 yuan/ton. The recent trend of refrigerant market is mainly stable, and the refrigerant operating rate remains low. For upstream raw material procurement, on-demand procurement is the main trend, which is negative for the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, The fluorite market remains at a high level.

Future Market Forecast: It is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines in the near future, and some mines have ceased production to undergo safety inspections. However, the purchasing sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is poor, and the upstream and downstream game situation is intensifying. Business Society analyst Chen Ling believes that the upward trend of fluorite will be hindered in the future, and the price trend of fluorite will mainly fluctuate.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of October 16, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8600 yuan/ton. Compared with October 6, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 8850 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82%.

Firstly, looking back at September, the domestic butanone market as a whole saw a broad upward trend. On the eve of the Double Festival, downstream demand and inventory were good, and the smooth transmission of supply and demand on the market pushed the price of butanone to a high point. After the double holiday, the butanone market returned to calm, and the trading atmosphere on the market was quiet. New orders were limited, and the overall butanone market began to decline and decline. As of October 16th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8300-8700 yuan/ton. Compared to before the holiday, the price will be reduced by around 100-300 yuan/ton.

Factors influencing the decline of butanone market after the holiday:

In terms of demand: The downstream demand for butanone after the holiday is not good, with the downstream mainly digesting early stage raw materials. The procurement of on-site stocking is limited, and a new round of centralized stocking has not yet started. The overall performance of on-site demand is flat. Although the raw material side still provides some support to the butanone market, it is constrained by insufficient demand. After the holiday, the butanone market started to decline from a high level.

On the supply side: After the holiday, the shipment of butanone in the market was slow, and the supply and demand transmission showed a stalemate. There was a partial accumulation of inventory on the market, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market was also weak.

In terms of device operation: After the holiday, there was little change in the operating rate of the butanone field. Although the parking equipment in the early stage has not been restored, the operation of the large factory is in a stable state, and the overall operating rate of the field is maintained at around 70%. Therefore, the market has not been effectively boosted in terms of device operation and capacity utilization.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market of Butanone

At present, the downstream demand for butanone is still not very clear, and the inability to follow up on demand in a timely manner has affected the mentality of the industry. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market, and some downstream sentiment is relatively bearish. The slight rebound in carbon tetrachloride after raw material ether can still provide some support to the market, but it is still crucial to wait for demand guidance in the future. According to the butanone data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the butanone market will mostly adjust and operate in a weak and narrow range, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the latest news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is weak and declining. From October 7th to 13th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16383 yuan/ton to 15833 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.36% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 6.77%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.42%. The overall follow-up ability of the aggregated MDI market is relatively average, and the market tends to weaken and consolidate. The monthly settlement price has a slightly average driving force on the overall market, and the market trading atmosphere is weak.

On the supply side, after the holiday, some devices may have low negative operation due to adjusting the devices to solve some minor problems. The supply is expected to decrease slightly compared to the holiday period, and the overall supply rhythm will maintain a state of first increasing and then decreasing next month. The supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene, and the pure benzene market first fell and then rose. With the previous decline in pure benzene prices, some customers entered the market to stock up on dips, and the transaction pace improved. Supported by the significant upward trend of crude oil in a single day, pure benzene negotiations rebounded slightly. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has been horizontally sorted out, and the enthusiasm for downstream stocking has weakened. Currently, factories are shipping normally, and after the holiday, the spot available for overseas sales has decreased, which is beneficial for the price of aniline. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall support capacity of the demand side is relatively average. Although there is some support in the cold industry, the overall inventory reserve is prepared in the early stage, with short-term consumption of inventory as the main factor, and the ability to follow up on new orders is relatively average. The follow-up of the pipeline and spraying industries is relatively limited, with some inhibitory effects on the market and limited follow-up capabilities. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.

According to future predictions, the supply of goods in the domestic aggregated MDI market is relatively limited, and the overall buying momentum on the demand side is weak, with insufficient support. But as prices decline, the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere may strengthen. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 7th to 12th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9725 yuan/ton to 9637 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.09% during the cycle. The price decreased by 4.78% month on month and 4.01% year-on-year. The raw material pure benzene is experiencing weak fluctuations, with major production enterprises lowering their listing prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. Due to the weak industry mentality, the focus of market transactions has weakened.

Cost side, raw material pure benzene, domestic pure benzene market volatility consolidation. Sinopec has lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 150 yuan to implement a price of 7850 yuan/ton, and all refineries along the river and coast will implement this price uniformly. This price will be effective from October 11th. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. After the National Day holiday, the market price of caprolactam fell. During and after the holiday, the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall price center fell compared to before the holiday. The caprolactam market fluctuated with costs, and downstream demand side confidence was weak. After the holiday, downstream enterprises chose to purchase at a lower price, and the spot price center of caprolactam fell compared to before the holiday. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material market may operate in a volatile manner, with unstable cost support, little change in the spot circulation of cyclohexanone, weak balance between market supply and demand, and near the profit and loss line. The cyclohexanone analyst from the Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.