According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, after a week of stalemate, the butadiene market continued to rise. From February 1 to 16, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9282 yuan/ton to 9868 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.32% in the cycle, a year-on-year increase of 22.73%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.19%.

Sinopec, the main domestic manufacturer, has pushed up the guiding price, slightly increased the export volume and the news of device maintenance, which has significantly boosted the domestic butadiene market atmosphere. At the same time, the external market has slightly increased, the short-term butadiene market supply level has been strong, and the downstream rubber market has also slightly increased. The market atmosphere has been rising, but the demand side still needs to be further opened.

On the cost side, in the same period, the international crude oil price has a trend of rising in a narrow range, while naphtha has a trend of high volatility. On February 16, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil and naphtha of the business agency was $85.58/barrel and 7951.50 yuan/ton respectively, up 1.28% and 1.05% from the beginning of this month ($84.50/barrel). The cost of butadiene was slightly positive.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec’s sales companies was increased by 400 yuan/ton to implement 10000 yuan/ton. The 250000 t/a butadiene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II and the 64000 t/a butadiene unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal Co., Ltd. were temporarily shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The supply-side production enterprises intend to drive up the market, while the utilization rate of the unit capacity decreases, and the butadiene supply side is favorable.

In terms of external market: the closing price of butadiene in Asia was stable on February 15: the FOB price in South Korea was 1195-1205 US dollars/ton; China CFR 1175-1185 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 715-725 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 735-745 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea/ 1195-1205 US dollars/ton/ 0 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ 1175-1185 US dollars/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ USD 715-725/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 735-745 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton

It is predicted that the recent butadiene market will be boosted by exports and the high guiding price of Sinopec, and the traders’ quotations will mainly rise. The overall market atmosphere is strong. However, the growth of downstream synthetic rubber is limited, and the demand of terminal has no obvious signs of improvement for the time being. According to the game between supply and demand, the butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be sorted out at a high level in the short term

Domestic cobalt price fell on February 14

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 14, the domestic cobalt price was 289100 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the February 13 cobalt price of 289500 yuan/ton. On February 14, the domestic cobalt price continued to decline slightly.

Analysis points

The price of cobalt in LME market declined slightly, the price of MB cobalt stabilized, and the decline of international cobalt price slowed down; In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell on a month-on-month basis. With the recovery of the domestic economy, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to rebound in the future, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rebound; The cobalt price is close to the cost line, and the decline space of cobalt price is limited.

Aftermarket expectation

High expectations and low reality, the supply of cobalt price is sufficient and the demand is insufficient, and the cobalt price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Society, on the 13th, the average price of nickel spot market was 214150 yuan/ton, down 4.57% from the previous trading day and up 21.48% year on year.

The US dollar rose, the base metal closed down, and the nickel dropped 5.83% in the next week. The Philippines is still in the rainy season, the supply shortage at the mine end is high, and the price of nickel iron is high. From the perspective of the nickel iron – stainless steel industry chain, the output of stainless steel increased in February, and the demand has warmed up. However, the problem of nickel iron reflux in Indonesia has led to loose supply and demand of nickel iron, and the inventory of stainless steel has further increased. In the new energy sector, some new energy enterprises have increased their purchase of nickel sulfate, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate have tightened, but the news of the production of electrodeposited nickel in Qingshan has flowed out, The excess pressure of nickel sulfate was relieved. In the short term, the nickel price still maintained a broad volatility trend.

DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 10, the average price of DOTP was 10050 yuan/ton, down 6.51% from the average price of 10750 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend. The price of raw materials fell and the demand was weak, and the downward pressure on the price of DOTP increased.

The price of raw materials fell sharply this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 10, the price of isooctanol was 9733.33 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the price of isooctanol of 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 5. Downstream demand was weak this week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, and the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 10, the PTA price was 5618.18 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from the price of 5763.64 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend; Compared with the price of 5617.73 yuan/ton on February 6, the price increased by 0.01%. The cost support is insufficient, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the PTA demand is weak, the PTA price is stable this week, the DOTP cost support is insufficient, and the downward pressure of DOTP in the future is still there.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell sharply this week, the price of PTA stabilized, the price of plasticizer DOTP raw material fell, the demand for DOTP was weak, and the cost fell. It is expected that DOTP will fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1233 yuan/ton on February 3 and 1230 yuan/ton on February 9. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 0.27% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell first and then rose this week. Due to the increase in downstream demand and the low inventory in the site, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate increased this week. The operating rate of domestic enterprises continued to increase, the supply of domestic enterprises increased, and the price of domestic ammonium sulfate decreased. The export order of ammonium sulfate was limited this week, and the international market performance was weak. As of February 9, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1350 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex-factory price in Shandong is 1120-1220 yuan/ton.

The market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. The market of raw materials is stable for the time being, and there is no change in the cost side. At present, the compound fertilizer market is progressing steadily, and the transactions on the market are weak, and dealers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate from the Business Agency believe that the market price of ammonium sulfate has been fluctuating recently. The domestic market demand is stable, while the foreign market is weak. There is no major change in the supply side, and the downstream purchases as required. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to fluctuate and operate in the short term.