1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 22, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% compared to the initial price of 21100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and an increase of 17.27% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 26000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.98% compared to the beginning of the month price of 24766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 1.30% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of chloroform continued to rise, rising by 9.31% during the week. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable and advanced, while the upstream raw material cost of R22 continued to rise. The remaining quota quantity of enterprises was generally low, and the domestic downstream demand was relatively stable. The market supply and demand entered a stalemate, and the overall domestic R22 market price remained stable and advanced this week.

Supported by the rebound in demand for foreign trade orders, the domestic R134a price continued to rise in September. With the stabilizing trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid prices, downstream trading entities in China are more cautious in demand, and the market supply and demand game shows that the overall domestic R134a price remained stable and advanced this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded from the bottom and remained stable overall. A slight increase in raw material costs will provide some support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, and manufacturers’ attitude towards price increases remains unchanged. In the short term, there is still some room for domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a prices to rise. Domestic traders have poor willingness to stock up, and downstream procurement is more cautious. The market supply and demand game is constantly intensifying, and the overall space for refrigerant prices to continue to rise is limited.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 21, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was set at 14920 yuan/ton. Compared with September 16 (organic silicon DMC reference 14760 yuan/ton), the price increased by 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.15-9.21), the overall domestic silicone DMC market showed a slight upward trend. Since the beginning of September, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has continued to move upwards as a whole. As we enter this week, the overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market continues to climb slightly. At the beginning of the week, the organic silicon DMC of Shandong’s large factories remained stable at around 15000 yuan/ton. With the continuous increase in costs, the organic silicon DMC factories have strong confidence in the market, and some factories continue to narrow the increase in the price of organic silicon DMC, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. As the weekend approaches, Shandong’s major factories have seen a slight decline in their quotations, while other factories and suppliers have remained stable in their quotations. The overall silicone DMC market is still operating at a high level. As of September 21st, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 14800-15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is still good, with some orders scheduled for delivery and some downstream orders starting to digest raw materials. The overall market demand is stabilizing, and the organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly be on a high level for consolidation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is in a weak state. From September 13th to 20th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16983 yuan/ton to 16933 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.89%. Recently, the market demand side has followed up relatively generally, with relatively limited price boosting power. Downstream demand is mainly focused on rigid demand, and traders remain in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year device in Dongcao Ruian has been completed and the device is operating normally. The current maintenance devices, including the 1.1 million ton/year device in Yantai Wanhua, will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 15th, with an estimated maintenance period of about 40 days. The overall supply has recovered. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, the raw materials of pure benzene, crude oil, and styrene are relatively strong, and the price of Eastern pure benzene is rapidly rising. However, there is still a resistance attitude towards purchasing high priced raw materials in the downstream; As of September 20th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 8717.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market price continues to be high, and the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise. Cost support continues to strengthen, and some downstream companies are starting to stock up before holidays. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is active, and some factories have maintenance plans in October. The basic situation of aniline is good, supporting the continuous increase in prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 13700.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high costs as the support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

Recently, the domestic spandex market has maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 18th, the price of 40D spandex was 34250 yuan/ton, and the industry’s overall construction started at around 72%. The cost support has become loose, and there has been a slight rebound in the downstream.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D/ 30D/ 40D

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./35000

Henan/ 37000./35500./33000

Fujian/ 37000./34000./32500

Jiangsu/ 39500./37500./36500

In the raw material market, there have been imported sources of goods arriving at the port recently, and traders have increased their enthusiasm for shipping. The mainstream quotation in the pure MDI market has slightly declined, and the mainstream negotiation for spot goods in the East China region is 22300-22500 yuan/ton by wire transfer in barrels for self pickup. The overall operating rate of the domestic PTMEG industry has slightly rebounded to over 77%, with a molecular weight of 1800 quoted at 21000 yuan/ton.

As the market enters the “Golden Nine” consumption peak season, terminal orders in the chemical fiber industry have rebounded, and the operating load of the weaving industry has started to slightly rebound due to this impact. Among them, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 65%. In terms of textile industry exports, the decline in China’s textile and clothing exports narrowed in August, with textile and clothing exports reaching 27.86 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.2%, and a month on month increase of 2.8%. Among them, textile exports reached 11.69 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.3%, and a month on month increase of 4.8%. Clothing exports reached 16.17 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.7%, and a month on month increase of 1.3%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current narrow adjustment in the cost end price of spandex has led to good downstream sales, but with the gradual release of demand during the peak season, it is difficult for demand to rise further. At the same time, in terms of orders, small orders are the main focus, and downstream enterprises are just in need of restocking, so stocking is more cautious, so there is still more uncertainty. It is expected that the short-term market situation for spandex will be dominated by wait-and-see consolidation.