1、 Price trend

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton, which was 0.92% lower than the average price of 9050 yuan/ton on January 9.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 9083 yuan/ton, which was stable this week compared with the average price of 9083 yuan/ton on January 9.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of January 13, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8650-9000 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 9200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 9300 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 8250-9500 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of the yellow phosphorus market before the festival is basically completed. Many downstream and traders have started to take holidays. There are shutdown plans during the Spring Festival, and there is no purchase plan for yellow phosphorus in the short term. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is light, with cautious delivery and more wait-and-see. The market after the Spring Festival. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 32000-33500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole remained stable at a high level. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall news of the domestic phosphate ore market is calm, the price of phosphate ore has not fluctuated significantly, and the overall market is in high consolidation. Mining enterprises in some regions of the country have stopped mining, mainly receiving pre-orders after the Spring Festival, and the stock preparation in the downstream before the Spring Festival has basically ended. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is quiet and mild.

Demand side:

Downstream demand for phosphoric acid was weak this week, and some downstream enterprises have stopped work for holidays, and terminal procurement has decreased. The phosphoric acid market is stagnant, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been slightly reduced recently, and the support of the cost side has weakened. Before the festival, the demand for phosphoric acid terminals weakened, and the number of new units on the site was relatively small. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be mainly stabilized and operated in the short term, and there will be no major changes before the holiday.

According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, as of January 11, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9100.00 yuan/ton, which was 0.37% higher than that of last Friday (January 6).

The market price of epichlorohydrin has risen recently. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been stable, the price of raw material glycerin has been stable, the impact of cost is limited, the downstream stock is prepared before the festival, the enthusiasm of inquiry and purchase has been increased, the spot supply in Jiangsu and Shandong markets is tight, and the enterprises are in a price attitude, and the focus of the epichlorohydrin market negotiation is up.

For upstream propylene, the reference price of propylene was 7240.60 on January 10, down 0.06% from January 1 (7244.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, the reference price of epoxy resin was 15233.33 on January 10, down 3.79% from January 1 (15833.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business agency, the impact of cost is not significant at present, and the support of supply and demand is still strong. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be strong in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

After the New Year’s Day, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise. As of January 9, the market negotiation had increased to 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and it was heard that the market bulk orders had been traded to 18600 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national average price on January 2 was 14766 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it had increased to 17533 yuan/ton, with a wide increase of 18.7%.

From the perspective of supply, the current operating rate of the MIBK industry is 40%, and the continuous rise of the MIBK market is mainly supported by the supply side tension. After the shutdown of the large factory, the market expects that the amount of cash circulation resources will be tightened, and the commodity holders have a positive attitude, high expectations for the future, and the driving mood will not be reduced. The quotation is high, and the small order bulk goods on the market reach 18600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the supply side tension will continue in January, and MIBK will have no intention to make profits.

From the perspective of demand, there are few large downstream orders to negotiate, mainly because small orders just need to be purchased, and the participation of middlemen has also increased. The downstream factories have orders just need to purchase raw materials near the end of the year, coupled with the increase in logistics costs, and the arrival prices are high everywhere. It is expected that the short-term supply is tight, and it is difficult to have the intention of making profits. It is expected that many small downstream orders just need to be followed up before the festival.

From the perspective of cost, raw acetone continued to decline broadly. Although acetone in East China rose slightly by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, and the East China market negotiated at 4650 yuan/ton, the overall impact on its downstream was not significant. MIBK plant costs were low, and MIBK profit space was good. Although the downstream MIBK market continued to rise, the low industrial operating rate had little demand for raw acetone. At present, the correlation between acetone and downstream MIBK was low, The low cost makes MIBK profitable.

From the perspective of the business agency, the short term market supply tension will continue to affect the MIBK market and support the market to continue to maintain the price position. However, the downstream price pursuit sentiment is limited, the large orders are rare, and the small orders just need to follow up, and the purchase intention is weakened, and there is resistance to the high price level. The business agency expects that the future market rise will be limited, and pays attention to the purchase situation before the festival.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market rose slightly in the first ten days of January, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of January 9, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 17400 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.29% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A weak finishing operation in early January. At present, the price of bisphenol A has gradually approached the cost line after a sharp decline in the early stage. The continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. The downstream demand side continued to decline, the negotiation atmosphere was empty, and the spot price fell. It is expected that the market will be mainly sorted and operated in a narrow range under the support of cost in the short term.

In terms of supply: the load of domestic PC enterprises has risen in a narrow range recently, with the overall operating rate close to 60%. At the beginning of the year, the industry’s processing profit rose, the average monthly operating rate showed an upward trend, and the pressure on the supply side remained. The flow of goods in the field is general, and enterprises and merchants are cautious.

Demand: In the first ten days of January, the starting position of PC terminal enterprises declined, and the production just needed to be maintained. The wait-and-see attitude of the operators is heavy, and the stock situation before the holiday is poor, and the actual orders are mainly scattered small orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of January, the PC market rose in a narrow range, and the upstream bisphenol A was in a weak consolidation, operating at a low level, which did not support the PC cost. The load of domestic polymerization plants was boosted by profits, and the pressure on the supply side remained unchanged. On the whole, there is still a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, and the market trading is normal. It is expected that the PC market will turn weak again in the near future.

This week’s (12.30-1.6) trichloromethane market fluctuated and consolidated. According to the data of the business agency, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong Province was 2275 yuan/ton as of January 6, up 1.68% from 2237 yuan/ton last Friday, and showing a volatile trend in the week. There was no significant increase in the demand for chloroform, the industry started up slightly, the factory price of enterprises was adjusted narrowly, and the market mainstream offer fluctuated slightly.

 
This week (12.30-1.6), the methane chloride industry started to improve.

This week (12.30-1.6), the spot market of methanol rose first and then fell slightly, with little change in the cost of chloroform. According to the business community, as of January 6, the spot price of methanol was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from 2660 yuan/ton last Friday; The high point in the cycle is 2708 yuan/ton.

In the low consumption season, the downstream refrigerant market was weak and the low price was temporarily stable, the export of enterprises was sluggish, the plant started at a low level, and the support for chloroform was weak.

Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the pressure on the supply side has increased slightly, while the demand side is weak, but the cost side has been supported in the near future. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.