1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of domestic ammonium sulfate on January 1 was 1243 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the reference average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 686 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 44.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken in the first half of 2023, with prices falling continuously. In the first half of the year, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market continued to be weak, with a small amount of downstream procurement and excessive pressure on prices, resulting in weak new orders. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation is sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has significantly decreased, with domestic grade ammonium sulfate following the downward trend. The continuous weakening of urea prices in the first half of the year has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 30th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 670 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 700 yuan/ton.

According to the K-bar chart from January to June 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate price decreased significantly in the first half of the year. The largest decline occurred in March, with a maximum decline of -21.79%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society believe that due to the recent rise in urea prices, which is beneficial for the ammonium sulfate market, the price of ammonium sulfate has started to rise significantly. However, market demand is still weak, and new orders have limited transactions. It is expected that the high price of ammonium sulfate will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since July, the hydrogen peroxide market has been continuously rising significantly. As of July 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 960 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.55% compared to the beginning of the month.

Lido supports the continuous upward trend of hydrogen peroxide market

Since July, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, with active market transactions and an increase in sales. Major hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised their prices one after another, with mainstream prices rising to 960 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton.

Business Society Hydrogen Peroxide Analysts believe that supply is tightening, terminal demand is supporting, and there is still room for improvement in the future hydrogen peroxide market.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a negative trend in the first week of July. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 19166.67 yuan/ton on July 7th, with a decrease of -2.54% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands have declined. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at over 60%, which is relatively flat compared to the previous period. The coexistence of enterprise construction and maintenance shows a trend of rotating negative reduction, but the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in inventory, negative corporate confidence, and a decrease in pricing operations. In terms of upstream, the domestic Adipic acid market continued to decline, and the low start and low demand continued to play a game, increasing the decline. In terms of Hexamethylenediamine, major international manufacturers have significantly reduced the factory price, which is obviously bad for the spot of PA66. The raw material side of PA66 has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production. Buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

At the beginning of July, the spot price of PA66 fell. The price of raw materials has weakened, which has poor support for the cost of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and the supply support is not obvious. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak consolidation market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is in a weak position. From June 29th to July 6th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11497 yuan/ton to 11364 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 1.16%, with a month on month increase of 1.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.42%.

Although some equipment maintenance, load reduction, and agent replacement may release the end of July maintenance news, the supply side has a favorable inventory to support the supplier’s market growth; But the demand side is in the traditional off-season, and most downstream industries are under cost pressure, which suppresses procurement enthusiasm. The pressure on supply and demand has increased, and holding manufacturers have discussed shipping attitudes, resulting in a downward trend in the focus range of actual orders.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the news of a major inspection at the end of July showed an increase in positive support from the supply side; Online bidding is trading at a relatively high level, and the supplier’s intention to defend the price still exists. Short term BDO supply is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak. On July 6th, the benchmark price for calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (2883.33 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is operating in a weak trend. On July 6th, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.95% compared to the beginning of this month (2180.00 yuan/ton). Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the performance of terminal demand is not good, and the upward transmission of orders is not smooth, which suppresses the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start work. The main focus is on maintaining contracts for raw material procurement, with scattered spot orders following up and strong bargaining sentiment. Short term BDO demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, BDO device maintenance and restart coexist, but the overall market supply has slightly decreased, and the supply side has a certain advantage, supporting the supplier’s strong market. There has been no significant improvement in terminal demand, suppressing downstream procurement enthusiasm. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

On July 5th, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose, with a daily increase of 2.45% in the main production area of Shandong, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society. The main reason is the tight supply, which has a positive impact.

Some devices in the northern region have entered the maintenance period, and the operating rate of enterprises has decreased. The superimposed import sources have significantly decreased compared to the previous month. The market atmosphere has significantly improved compared to the previous week, and the exploratory nature of dealer offers has increased. However, due to the small changes in the downstream urea market, downstream agricultural demand for fertilizer preparation is coming to an end, indicating that this increase is mostly driven by suppliers. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2700-2900 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that the tight supply trend of liquid ammonia in the near future will not be maintained for too long, as demand has not improved, and the retreat of agricultural demand will quell the contradiction of supply shortage. It is expected that there is not much upward space for liquid ammonia in the future.