Market trend
In the past week (April 8-14), the PA66 market has slowed down first and then surged, continuing to fluctuate at a high level in the first half of the week and accelerating again in the second half. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the benchmark price of PA66 has risen from 22966.67 yuan/ton on April 7th to 25100 yuan/ton on April 14th, with a cumulative increase of 20.29% since April, reaching its highest price in a year.
influencing factors
From a cost perspective, the raw material side maintained a high consolidation, and the execution price of hexamethylenediamine by NVIDIA in April has been raised to 26000 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. The cost pressure is directly transmitted to PA66. Another core raw material, adipic acid, was driven by the previous rise in oil prices, with a cumulative increase of over 50% in the first quarter. Although the benchmark price of adipic acid slightly decreased by 0.63% in mid April compared to the beginning of the month, it still operated at a relatively high historical level overall. Despite the recent easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the early energy premium has been deeply embedded in the industrial chain, making it difficult for the short-term cost center to shift downwards.
From the perspective of supply and demand, there has been a recent decrease in imported goods on the supply side, with tight spot circulation in the market and strong reluctance among traders to sell. Both manufacturers and traders have overall low inventory levels. Recently, some enterprises have seen a decrease in their operating load, which has provided support for prices. On the demand side, the overall performance is weak, and the downstream textile industry has a low acceptance of high prices. They generally adopt the strategy of “small order demand, on-demand procurement”, with few large purchases and insufficient trading activity, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”.
Future forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market is expected to maintain high volatility, and there is limited room for a significant unilateral price increase in the short term. The strong cost support and weak demand form a game, and the price trend will highly depend on changes in raw materials and the recovery progress of downstream orders. If there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, high prices or suppression of production will lead to the continuation of the “price but no market” situation.
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