This week, the high level of plasticizer DOP fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizer products have skyrocketed after the holiday, and the prices of plasticizers have fallen from their high points this week. As of May 11th, the price of DOP was 10041.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.42% compared to the price of 9709.17 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 6th, the price of 10750 yuan/ton decreased by 6.59%. After the holiday, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol skyrocketed, and the prices of plasticizers rose accordingly. As the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol fell, the prices of plasticizers fell from a high point.

The high price of isooctanol has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell after the holiday, and the high price of isooctanol fell back this week. As of May 11th, the price of isooctanol was 9850 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.24% compared to the price of 9100 yuan/ton on May 1st; The price of isooctanol decreased by 3.27% compared to 10183.33 yuan/ton on May 8th. After the holiday, the prices of isooctanol enterprises skyrocketed, causing difficulties in shipping isooctanol. This week, the high price of isooctanol fell, the cost of plasticizer products decreased, and the upward momentum of plasticizers weakened, increasing downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 11th, the price of n-butanol was 7866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.77% compared to the price of n-butanol on May 1st, which was 7166.67 yuan/ton; The price of n-butanol decreased by 5.60% compared to 8333.33 yuan/ton on May 7th. After the holiday, n-butanol surged, and downstream demand was weak. This week, the high price of n-butanol fell, and the downward pressure on plasticizer prices increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that after the holiday, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol have skyrocketed, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer products. As a result, the prices of plasticizer products have skyrocketed. This week, the high prices of isooctanol and n-butanol have fallen, leading to a decrease in plasticizer costs. In the future, supply of isooctanol and n-butanol will resume this week, and the cost of plasticizer raw materials will fall. However, there is still a weak demand for plasticizers, and it is expected that plasticizer prices will weaken and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 55% of domestic powdered monoammonium was 3037 yuan/ton on May 1, and the average price of 55% of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2937 yuan/ton on May 8. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 3.29% this week.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3893 yuan/ton on May 1, and the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3893 yuan/ton on May 8. The price of diammonium phosphate market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate decreased, and the operating rate of manufacturers decreased. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have declined, resulting in insufficient cost support. Currently in the off-season of demand, trading on the market is light. As of May 8th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2750-2850 yuan/ton, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 2750-3000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

This week, the price of diammonium phosphate remained stable, and the operating rate of manufacturers decreased. Raw material prices continue to weaken, and cost support weakens. Insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The supply of goods in the diammonium market is tight, and the market is light, with weak consolidation and operation. As of May 8th, the market price of 64% ammonium chloride in Hubei region is around 3850-3950 yuan/ton, the outbound price of 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 4000 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the price of sulfur rose this week and then fell back. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and the end industry’s trading volume is average. Downstream demand support is insufficient, and the sulfur refinery is temporarily stable in shipping. There is a lack of positive news on the market, and the short-term sulfur market is on the sidelines.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the price of domestic phosphorus ore market fell this week. Some phosphate ore manufacturers have suspended or reduced production, resulting in weakened downstream demand and a small amount of procurement. It is expected that the weak market will continue in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the price of ammonium phosphate raw materials has continued to weaken recently, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders on the market. It is expected that the market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business society, as of May 6, 2023, the market price reference of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8666 yuan/ton, which was 67 yuan/ton lower than that on May 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8733 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.76%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the first week of May (5.1-5.6), the overall domestic propylene glycol market remained stable, with a weak consolidation operation. After returning from the May Day Labor Day holiday, the propylene glycol market in most regions of China has remained stable, with little change in market conditions compared to before the holiday. The narrow price reduction of some propylene glycol factories has driven the overall market to remain stable, moderate, and weak. As of May 6, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 8500-8800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is average, and downstream demand is relatively light. New orders are mostly just in need of negotiation. The propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly continue to consolidate and operate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on April 1st was 7991 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6920 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid price decreased by 13.41%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China on April 1st was 8216 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price fell by 15.42%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market fell continuously in April. The market price of raw yellow phosphorus and phosphorus ore fell this month, the weak market remained, and the cost support was insufficient. Market demand is weak, trading is light, and bearish on the market is the main trend. Both cost and demand are weak, and domestic phosphoric acid prices have continuously decreased. As of April 30th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6450-7500 yuan/ton.

Market of raw material phosphate rock. In April, the domestic phosphorus ore market overall showed a weak downward trend. In early April, due to the downward trend of the yellow phosphorus market in the downstream of the industrial chain, downstream operations began at a reduced rate. The demand for phosphate ore in some regions of China became loose, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market was strong. Some mining companies lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by around 10-30 yuan/ton. Subsequently, in mid April, the phosphorus ore market as a whole remained weak and stable, and towards the end of the month, some mining companies in Sichuan region adjusted their phosphorus ore prices downwards by around 10-20 yuan/ton.

Market situation of raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus market fell sharply in April. In the early part of this month, the manufacturer mainly issued preliminary orders and mostly did not provide external quotations. The market trading situation is light, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the enthusiasm for buying is not high, the high-end price is difficult to clinch a deal, and the market price is reduced. At the end of this month, most of the yellow phosphorus enterprises have cost inversion, and most of the enterprises in production have reduced their production load. Some enterprises have stopped production, and can still receive orders and ship goods normally. However, they do not provide external quotations, and will discuss the actual orders in detail. As of April 30th, the quotation for Sichuan region is around 24000-25000 yuan/ton, while the quotation for Guizhou region is 28000 yuan. The actual transaction is negotiated separately.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society phosphoric acid analysts believe that the post holiday consolidation of the phosphoric acid market is mainly wait-and-see, with fewer downstream purchases and a weak transaction atmosphere. The market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is still in a downward consolidation trend, and the confidence in the phosphoric acid industry is insufficient. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be weak in the short term, and the main focus will be on consolidation and operation.

The metal silicon market is weak and seeking stability in April. At the beginning of the month, there was strong pessimism in the metal silicon market, and the demand side was sluggish. Silicon prices were still constantly exploring low. In the middle and late stages, the sentiment of reducing production in the northwest has fermented, providing support for prices. As the end of the month approaches, the southwest region is about to enter a flood season, with electricity prices moving downwards and the cost of metal silicon expected to decrease. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 28th, the national quotation for metal silicon was 16140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.44% from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

On the supply side

It is understood that as of April 21, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 41.64%, with 299 furnaces opened, 147 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 20 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 36 furnaces opened in Yunnan. This month, the electricity price in the northwest region was increased from 0.38 yuan/kWh to 0.42 yuan/kWh. Due to high costs, many silicon companies have maintenance plans. There is a possibility for electricity prices to be lowered after the May Day holiday in the southwest region. Some silicon factories plan to resume production, but currently the price of metal silicon is at a low level, and the willingness of factories to resume work is not strong.

Inventory aspect

As of April 21, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three regions was 119000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the end of last month. Among them, Kunming Port is more obvious in terms of inbound shipments, while Southwest Silicon Enterprises have generally experienced cost inversion, resulting in a decrease in inbound shipments.

In terms of demand

Downstream polycrystalline silicon prices are weak, with the mainstream range of single crystal density reaching 1700-185000 yuan/ton. The supply of polycrystalline silicon was abundant in April, and the operating rate of enterprises remained at a medium high level. Although two enterprises underwent equipment maintenance during the month, the production still increased compared to last month, and the support for metal silicon demand is still acceptable.

In April, the organic silicon DMC market was operating weakly, with a reference price of 15080 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is also weak and hovering. The price is at the cost line, and most companies are wait-and-see about metal silicon, with a few companies just in need of procurement.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not strong, and most of them are buying at low prices. The metal silicon industry still faces pressure from oversupply. After the May Day holiday, it will enter a flat water period and the electricity price will be lowered to a certain extent. However, the water level in the south is still low, and the short-term electricity price reduction may not be as expected. The sentiment for resuming production in the southwest is relatively low. Therefore, without significant positive news support, it is expected that the short-term silicon price will be weak and maintain stable operation.