After the New Year’s Day, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise. As of January 9, the market negotiation had increased to 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and it was heard that the market bulk orders had been traded to 18600 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national average price on January 2 was 14766 yuan/ton, and on January 9, it had increased to 17533 yuan/ton, with a wide increase of 18.7%.

From the perspective of supply, the current operating rate of the MIBK industry is 40%, and the continuous rise of the MIBK market is mainly supported by the supply side tension. After the shutdown of the large factory, the market expects that the amount of cash circulation resources will be tightened, and the commodity holders have a positive attitude, high expectations for the future, and the driving mood will not be reduced. The quotation is high, and the small order bulk goods on the market reach 18600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the supply side tension will continue in January, and MIBK will have no intention to make profits.

From the perspective of demand, there are few large downstream orders to negotiate, mainly because small orders just need to be purchased, and the participation of middlemen has also increased. The downstream factories have orders just need to purchase raw materials near the end of the year, coupled with the increase in logistics costs, and the arrival prices are high everywhere. It is expected that the short-term supply is tight, and it is difficult to have the intention of making profits. It is expected that many small downstream orders just need to be followed up before the festival.

From the perspective of cost, raw acetone continued to decline broadly. Although acetone in East China rose slightly by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, and the East China market negotiated at 4650 yuan/ton, the overall impact on its downstream was not significant. MIBK plant costs were low, and MIBK profit space was good. Although the downstream MIBK market continued to rise, the low industrial operating rate had little demand for raw acetone. At present, the correlation between acetone and downstream MIBK was low, The low cost makes MIBK profitable.

From the perspective of the business agency, the short term market supply tension will continue to affect the MIBK market and support the market to continue to maintain the price position. However, the downstream price pursuit sentiment is limited, the large orders are rare, and the small orders just need to follow up, and the purchase intention is weakened, and there is resistance to the high price level. The business agency expects that the future market rise will be limited, and pays attention to the purchase situation before the festival.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market rose slightly in the first ten days of January, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of January 9, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 17400 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.29% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A weak finishing operation in early January. At present, the price of bisphenol A has gradually approached the cost line after a sharp decline in the early stage. The continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. The downstream demand side continued to decline, the negotiation atmosphere was empty, and the spot price fell. It is expected that the market will be mainly sorted and operated in a narrow range under the support of cost in the short term.

In terms of supply: the load of domestic PC enterprises has risen in a narrow range recently, with the overall operating rate close to 60%. At the beginning of the year, the industry’s processing profit rose, the average monthly operating rate showed an upward trend, and the pressure on the supply side remained. The flow of goods in the field is general, and enterprises and merchants are cautious.

Demand: In the first ten days of January, the starting position of PC terminal enterprises declined, and the production just needed to be maintained. The wait-and-see attitude of the operators is heavy, and the stock situation before the holiday is poor, and the actual orders are mainly scattered small orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of January, the PC market rose in a narrow range, and the upstream bisphenol A was in a weak consolidation, operating at a low level, which did not support the PC cost. The load of domestic polymerization plants was boosted by profits, and the pressure on the supply side remained unchanged. On the whole, there is still a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, and the market trading is normal. It is expected that the PC market will turn weak again in the near future.

This week’s (12.30-1.6) trichloromethane market fluctuated and consolidated. According to the data of the business agency, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong Province was 2275 yuan/ton as of January 6, up 1.68% from 2237 yuan/ton last Friday, and showing a volatile trend in the week. There was no significant increase in the demand for chloroform, the industry started up slightly, the factory price of enterprises was adjusted narrowly, and the market mainstream offer fluctuated slightly.

 
This week (12.30-1.6), the methane chloride industry started to improve.

This week (12.30-1.6), the spot market of methanol rose first and then fell slightly, with little change in the cost of chloroform. According to the business community, as of January 6, the spot price of methanol was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from 2660 yuan/ton last Friday; The high point in the cycle is 2708 yuan/ton.

In the low consumption season, the downstream refrigerant market was weak and the low price was temporarily stable, the export of enterprises was sluggish, the plant started at a low level, and the support for chloroform was weak.

Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the pressure on the supply side has increased slightly, while the demand side is weak, but the cost side has been supported in the near future. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong Province on January 4 was 3829 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous trading day and 18.66% year on year. On January 4, the main asphalt futures contract 2306 closed at 3789 yuan/ton, down 96, or 2.47%, from the previous trading day.

The decline of crude oil price has a certain impact on the asphalt futures market. In terms of spot asphalt, the spot asphalt mainly maintains stable and strong operation. During the New Year’s Day holiday, the price of Sinopec refineries was raised, and the price of asphalt was raised in some places, driving the domestic asphalt price up significantly. There is a demand for acceleration in some regions, and the market transaction is optimistic.

In the short term, the domestic spot asphalt market is dominated by strong operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market fell steadily in December, and the price fell continuously until after New Year’s Day. At the beginning of December, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 766 yuan/ton. On January 2, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 720 yuan/ton, down 6.09%.

Downward terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline

Since December, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other industries has declined, the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined, and the turnover has been flat. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline in a weak way, mainly by more than 3%, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to 740 yuan/ton. During the New Year’s Day holiday, the demand of the terminal industry was still sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to operate in a weak way, with the overall price weakening to 720 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an analyst of hydrogen peroxide from the business community, believes that the demand is low, and the hydrogen peroxide market will still be weak in the future.