1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the average price of LNG in Inner Mongolia was 4806 yuan/ton, down 2.91% from the average price of 4950 yuan/ton on November 7.

2、 Market analysis

The weak domestic LNG market continued this week, and the price continued to decline. At present, the market demand is weak and the trading and investment are flat. The price fell sharply in the air, which was bad for the domestic gas market. Although the heating season is coming, the temperature is relatively high in recent days, and the demand has not improved. The liquid plant has discharged more inventory and reduced the price. After successive price reductions, the market in some regions rebounded slightly. Due to the control of the epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia, the shipment is not smooth, and the market continues to decline.

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on November 11:

Region./Quote

Inner Mongolia/. 4650-5000 yuan/ton

Shaanxi/. 4900-5200 yuan/ton

Shanxi/. 5050-5200 yuan/ton

Ningxia/. 5100-5200 yuan/ton

Hebei/. 5300-5450 yuan/ton

Henan/. 5450-5600 yuan/ton

Sichuan/. 5150-5400 yuan/ton

Shandong/. 5700-5800 yuan/ton

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that due to the sluggish terminal demand in recent days, the market for LNG continues to run weak due to oversupply on the market. The industry held a wait-and-see attitude, with gains and losses in various regions of China. Although the cost has some support, the demand side has not improved, and the LNG market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 9): 2519 yuan/ton

On November 9, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, unchanged from that on November 8, with a year-on-year drop of 6.22%. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) is about 1630 yuan/ton, the price drops slightly, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150,000 tons.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2530 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 8, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7500 yuan/ton, which was 366 yuan/ton lower than the reference average price of n-butanol on November 4 before the festival (7866 yuan/ton), a decline of 4.66%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a broad rise under the support of both supply and demand. As of last weekend (November 4), the n-butanol market rose to a high level, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton. On the following 5 and 6 days, the overall market was consolidated at a high level. In this week, the n-butanol market in Shandong started to fall back at a high level, with a cumulative decline of more than 4% over the past two days. As of November 8, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China has been around 7400-7600 yuan/ton, and the price has decreased by 300-500 yuan/ton this week.

The main influencing factor of the high and down trend of the n-butanol market comes from the demand. In this week, the downstream of n-butanol mainly consumes the raw materials in the early inventory, and the overall market demand returns to a stable level. Therefore, compared with the beginning of the month, the demand for n-butanol is less supportive. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the deals are mostly small.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the inventory of n-butanol in the plant is relatively controllable, the supply side has relatively stable support for the n-butanol market, and the raw propylene market rebounds at a low level, which also supports the cost side. The fluctuation of the n-butanol market is also a normal fall after the demand side returns to calm. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst of the business community believes that, in the short term, it is expected that, under the condition that the market is still supported in terms of supply and cost, The risk of the n-butanol market continuing to decline significantly is small, and the market will tend to stabilize and consolidate. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly on the 7th, with the spot price of 66433.33 yuan/ton, 2.81% higher than the previous trading day and 5.55% lower than the same period last year.

The US unemployment rate recorded 3.7% in October, higher than the expected 3.6%. The rising expectation of the US economic recession restricted the space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, led the US dollar index to fall sharply, and copper prices rebounded sharply after a long period of pressure. Supply side disturbances frequently superimpose geopolitical risks, and the new copper mine output since 2022 is lower than expected. The global exchange copper inventory continued to decline. The domestic refined copper inventory was at a historical low level, and it was difficult to see obvious accumulation in a short time. The supply and demand of refined copper was in a tight state. However, domestic downstream consumption is weak, and Russian copper may turn to our country under the rising voice of European ban on imports, and the supply and demand may be slowing down. In the short term, supported by low inventories, copper prices are expected to rise mainly due to shocks.

1、 Price trend:

In early November, the domestic PA6 market fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 14233.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and 14166.67 yuan/ton on November 5. The range of increase and decrease within the week was -0.47%, which was -16.83% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

This week, the PA6 market turned down, and the slice price was generally lowered. Upstream caprolactam market weakened, and PA6 cost side support weakened. At present, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants has been adjusted by a narrow margin, and the overall industrial load is below 70%. The tightening on the supply side is insufficient, the supply side of PA6 is still abundant, and the profit of aggregation enterprises is average. In the early stage, the traditional peak season of “Silver Ten” was not as large as expected, there were many goods on the market, and the slice competition was strong. The high price goods were generally not available. In terms of demand, nylon filament of terminal enterprises started at a high level, while other downstream enterprises were in a fair load position. However, most of them have low enthusiasm for digesting the inventory in the early stage and purchasing, and they tend to be wait-and-see. At present, the operators have no strong confidence in the future market, and the number of traders giving up profits and taking orders has increased.

3、 Future market forecast:

This week, the spot price of PA6 fell, the market of caprolactam became weaker, and the cost support of PA6 was not strong. The demand is relatively lagging behind, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is heavy. At present, the market guidance is empty, and it is expected that the market of PA6 will be weak in the short term.