1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 9200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8533.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 7.25%. Weekend prices fell 47.65% year-on-year. On May 21, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 43.32, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 43.82% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have significantly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6870.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.91%. There is a downward trend in prices over the weekend, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%. The price of upstream raw material market rose slightly, with general cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was positively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 10766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.24%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late May may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market is showing a downward trend, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Some manufacturers have resumed production, resulting in an increase in isobutyraldehyde flux. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on May 15th this week was 2400 yuan/ton, and on May 19th it was 2233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.94% in price.

On May 15th, mainstream enterprises in East China quoted prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China quoted prices ranging from 1800 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, the concentrated nitric acid market is mainly dominated by order sales, and the market atmosphere is cold. There is an urgent need for positive support, with a focus on market transactions.

During the period of 5.15-5.19, upstream liquid ammonia increased by 0.83%, downstream aniline prices decreased by 4.23%, TDI prices decreased by 7.5%, and potassium nitrate prices decreased by 1.4%. Although the price of raw material liquid ammonia has increased, the downstream prices of potassium nitrate, aniline, and TDI have all decreased. In addition, the downstream demand for nitric acid is weak, but the demand for pesticides, pickling, and other industries is sluggish. The price of nitric acid continues to decline, and nitric acid analysts at Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may be mainly volatile and weak.

Price trend

In May, the PA66 market in China underwent a narrow adjustment. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on May 16th was 20766.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+2.13% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Last week, the PA66 market underwent a narrow adjustment, and overall, the spot prices of various brands have increased over the past half month. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently below 66%, which has decreased compared to the previous period. The contraction of supply has formed a certain support for the spot market, but the overall market supply is still abundant, and the price increase of PA66 is limited. The pricing operation of enterprises is stable, and inventory pressure is average. On the upstream side, the raw material of adipic acid is stable in terms of hexamethylene diamine, while the adipic acid is fluctuating in operation. A large number of overhauled devices will alleviate the weakness of demand. In the future, it may continue to be bearish due to the weakness of crude oil. The PA66 raw material end has average support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises need to follow up on their purchases. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue to consolidate its market in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the spot price of PA66 remained stable. The raw material market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, providing general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise has decreased, supply has tightened, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that in the short term, PA66 may be supported by suppliers and tend to be more organized and operated.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of petroleum coke produced by the local refiners declined as a whole this week. On May 14, the average price of Shandong market was 1926.50 yuan/ton, down 1.66% from the price of 1959.00 yuan/ton on May 8.

On May 14, the petroleum coke commodity index was 148.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.57% from the cycle’s highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 122.56% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refinery petroleum coke rose and fell with each other. Driven by downstream demand and the reduction of regional supply, the transaction of locally refined petroleum coke was good. Some refineries have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. At present, the port petroleum coke inventory is at a long-term high level, which cannot be changed in the short term, and the port petroleum coke inventory release is relatively slow.

This week’s international crude oil market was volatile, with poor performance in US economic data during the current price adjustment cycle. In addition, with the announcement of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, investors’ concerns about the possibility of interest rate hikes triggering an economic recession and a decrease in energy demand continue to rise, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession. The increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has put pressure on the oil market, and the increase in the U.S. crude oil inventory has depressed the international oil market.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The price of silicon metal continues to decline, and high inventory and sluggish demand remain important factors that constrain prices; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is declining, with an average price of 17896.67 yuan/ton as of May 14th; Carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, have a high enthusiasm for entering the market, and partially support the local refining petroleum coke market.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that the petroleum coke inventory at the port is currently at a long-term high level, while the petroleum coke inventory at the short port is released relatively slowly. Some refining enterprises have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Some downstream companies just need to purchase, which to some extent supports the local petroleum coke refining market. It is expected that the local petroleum coke refining will be dominated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium market was 2937 yuan/ton on May 8, and the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium market was 2887 yuan/ton on May 12. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 1.70% this week.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3893 yuan/ton on May 8, and the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3893 yuan/ton on May 12. The price of diammonium phosphate market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell and the market continued to weaken. The price of raw material phosphate rock has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand is weak, and there are relatively few new orders in the market, resulting in a continuous decline in the focus of monoammonium transactions. As of May 12th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2800 yuan/ton, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2850 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

This week, the weak price of diammonium phosphate was sorted and operated. The price of raw material phosphate rock has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. The downstream demand performance is flat, with a small amount of procurement following up, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is weak. The international market situation remains poor this week. As of May 12th, the market price of 64% ammonium chloride in Hubei region is around 3600-3700 yuan/ton, the outbound price of 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 4000 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur has steadily increased this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, the market supply is stable, the end industry trading is sluggish, and downstream demand is limited. The sulfur refinery is actively shipping, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. Some manufacturers adjust their prices based on their own inventory and shipping situation, and the short-term sulfur market is waiting and organizing and operating.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has been weak and declining this week, with the overall focus of the market exploring downward. At present, although the overall support for the supply side of phosphate rock in China is still acceptable, the overall operating rate downstream of the phosphate rock industry chain is relatively low, and the demand for phosphate rock in some regions has weakened. The overall atmosphere in phosphate rock yards is average, and some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by around 20-50 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts from Business Society, the recent price reduction of raw material phosphate rock has resulted in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand continues to be weak, and market trading volume is relatively low. In the absence of positive market conditions, it is expected that the ammonium phosphate market will continue to be weak in the short term, with a downward trend being the main trend.