Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business community, the spot mainstream market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China on November 18 was 12040 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous trading day, down 10.42% year on year.

Industrial factor: According to the monitoring of the business agency, since the price of natural latex fell to the annual lowest point of 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, the spot price of natural latex rebounded on the basis of the bottom range and driven by the futures market in November, rising by 4.42% in the first half of the year. In terms of spot goods, the supply side has a strong supply, the spot price of Thai rubber latex has dropped to a new low at the end of the year, the main domestic ports have imported rubber to the port, the inventory has continued to increase, and the spot circulation is abundant. From the demand side, the downstream tire enterprises have great pressure on tire supply, the finished products are stored in warehouses, and the domestic and foreign demand is sluggish. It is naturally difficult for the product enterprises to increase the purchase orders for raw rubber, and it will take time to improve the rubber procurement. Latex prices in Southeast Asian production areas, domestic markets and the US dollar rubber market are still hovering at a low range. Although rubber prices have rebounded, the turnover is relatively light. The market generally expects the supply impact of domestic adhesive tape to be cut off soon.

macroscopic:

On November 17, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. According to the analysis, the signs of economic recession in Europe and the United States are becoming more and more clear, which may lead to a decline in global demand and become the shadow of the oil market for a long time. In the short term, OPEC still plays a leading role in regulating the slow growth of shale oil in the United States. In the later period, it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce production, which will support oil prices. At the same time, the EU’s oil ban on Russia is coming into effect, and the expectation of tight supply is still in the short term. In general, the short-term supply and demand game in the oil market is intensified, which will maintain a volatile pattern; Medium to long term or facing downward pressure.

Industry hotspot:

1. According to the latest October report issued by ANRPC, the global gum output in October is expected to increase by 5.1% to 1.435 million tons, 3.2% higher than that of last month; The consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 1.2% to 1.301 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the previous month. According to the report, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points again in early November 2022 to combat inflation, the rise of the economy and borrowing costs may be restrained. It is expected that the global demand for natural rubber will slow down this year, but the global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow.

2. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 73.216 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% year on year. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 3.7% over the same period of last year to 71286.7 million.

3. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association on October 10, China’s auto production and sales reached 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October, down 2.7% and 4% month on month, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles respectively reached 22.242 million and 21.975 million, up 7.9% and 4.6% year on year, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to September. In October, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.334 million and 2.231 million, down 3.1% and 4.3% month on month, up 16.9% and 10.7% year on year.

4. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, China imported 643000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2022, an increase of 25.6% compared with 512000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to October, China imported 5.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 7.1% compared with 5.475 million tons in the same period of 2021.

Future market forecast: according to the production law of natural rubber, the cutting of domestic full latex will be stopped successively next month. In the short term, it is difficult for natural rubber to rise substantially under the condition of loose spot supply and poor improvement of order demand; In the medium term, natural rubber is about to enter the annual low production area. The market expects that the cessation of cutting of domestic rubber is a very important positive factor for the market. According to the seasonal characteristics, upward price expectations are more common in the future market.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate stopped rising this week, and some enterprises’ quotations fell slightly. As of November 17, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 587000 yuan/ton, down 0.68% compared with the average price of 591000 yuan/ton on November 13. On November 17, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 604000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared with the average price of 609000 yuan/ton on November 13.

According to the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices have stopped rising and retreated this week, but only a few enterprises have slightly lowered their prices, and most prices are still stable. Recently, due to the news that the battery factory plans to reduce production, the purchase of lithium salt will be reduced, and the sharp drop in the price of lithium carbonate in domestic electronic disk will lead to pessimism in the lithium carbonate market. In the early stage, there was also a large volume of lithium carbonate stocking enterprises. Recently, large quantities of lithium carbonate imported from South America arrived in Hong Kong, and the market supply gap was timely supplemented, making the price loose and downward.

However, with the understanding of the market, the current production status of battery plants in the lithium battery industry chain has not been adjusted. Most of the production is in a state of short supply and positive growth. The market demand for next year is optimistic, and the overall commencement of lithium battery midstream enterprises is still in full swing. However, as the peak impulse period of the battery factory has passed, this year’s new energy subsidy will completely decline. After the early centralized procurement, the procurement will gradually enter a dull period.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable. There are many factors affecting the market change in the near future. The price of lithium carbonate has stopped rising and dropped. The lithium hydroxide market is in a wait-and-see state. Enterprises still focus on long delivery orders. The spot supply in the market has also increased. The price stability is mainly maintained by shipping.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream has slightly increased. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the operating rate is stable. The overall market of lithium iron phosphate remains stable, medium and strong. The manufacturer supplies only old customers, but the number of new customers is limited.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business community believe that at present, due to the decline of subsidies for new energy this year, the market impulse in the fourth quarter is ahead of schedule. The rising price of lithium carbonate in the early stage has some relevance to the terminal impulse. Later, the downstream demand of the market gradually stabilizes, and the lithium carbonate market may enter the state of de stocking. However, supported by production costs, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 16, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7800.00 yuan/ton, down 2.5% compared with the same period last week. At present, the price of cyclohexane is stable and relatively strong, and the price has an upward trend in the short term. At present, the overall market opening rate is stable, the downstream purchase intention is general, and the purchase is mainly just needed.

The average price of domestic industrial grade cyclohexane is 7800.00 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 8000 yuan/ton. The overall market of cyclohexane is stable, and the price has an upward trend. At present, the purchasing atmosphere is OK, the supply side is normal, and the operating rate is stable. The latest prices of the enterprises are 7200 yuan/ton for Jinan Hengtong Chemical Co., Ltd. and 7200 yuan/ton for Shandong Lincheng Chemical Products Co., Ltd, Jinan Jutai Chemical Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan/ton, Shandong Yushu Chemical Co., Ltd. 7300 yuan/ton.

Chemical index: On November 15, the chemical index was 940 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 32.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.19% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from the business community believe that the cyclohexane market has an upward trend in the short term, and the mainstream price is around 8000 yuan.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 15, 2022, the market price reference of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton, and on November 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8250 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 150 yuan/ton, or 1.82%. On November 15, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the near future (11.7-11.15), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole has shown a weak decline. At present, propylene glycol market is generally supported effectively, which can be seen from the following two aspects:

1、 On the supply side, due to the limited turnover of new orders recently, propylene glycol gradually accumulates in the market, the pressure on the supply side increases, the supply and demand transmission is slow, and the supply side provides weak support to the propylene glycol market.

2、 In terms of demand, at present, the downstream demand of propylene glycol is more rigid and needs to be followed up. Replenishment and stocking are relatively cautious. The overall transaction of propylene glycol market is flat. Under the insufficient demand boost, some factories have slightly lowered the price of propylene glycol recently, by 100-200 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall supply and demand performance of propylene glycol field is weak. It is said that in the fourth quarter, the number of propylene glycol field devices may increase. With the increase of supply, the downstream wait-and-see mood may continue to be difficult to dispel, and the purchase will continue to be cautious. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is weak, and the operation is mainly adjusted. More attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of November 13 was 6760.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 0.45% higher than the price of 6730.00 yuan/ton on November 7.

On November 13, the fuel oil commodity index was 136.91, which was the same as yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle and 197.11% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of November 13, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6700 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6800 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6800 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6900 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell in shock. OPEC will start to reduce production in November. At that time, the crude oil production will decline, strongly supporting the oil price. EIA data shows that the US crude oil export volume has reached a record high, and the US total crude oil inventory has fallen to a nearly 21 year low, promoting the rise of crude oil prices. However, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices. The oil demand expectation in Asia is still uncertain. With the mid-term elections in the United States looming, the market’s worries about demand have depressed oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): as of November 9, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory had increased by 2.522 million barrels to a five week high of 21.471 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell by 1.132 million barrels to 13.518 million barrels, a more than six month low; Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased 465000 barrels to a four week high of 7.274 million barrels.

Future market forecast: The international crude oil price has fallen, which is bad for the domestic ship fuel market. But at present, the supply in the South is tight, the ship fuel price is high and firm, the market wait-and-see mood has increased, the deal is just in demand, and the ship fuel market is stable in the near future. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6800-6900 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.