Both supply and demand are weak, and the POM market is frozen before the festival

Price trend



In January, the POM market in China maintained a stalemate operation, and the overall performance of prices was stable. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 16, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 13933.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.


Cause analysis


In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose in mid-January. It can be seen from the figure below that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuated slightly. In the near future, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand has weakened significantly, and some formaldehyde manufacturers have had holidays in advance, and the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much.


Supply: In January, the operating rate of POM enterprises in China continued to decline at a high level, and the industry load was around 87%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, and the inventory position is low, but the gross profit level per ton of processing profit has dropped to about 2450 yuan.


Demand: The load of POM industry has dropped recently, and the market supply is still abundant. The manufacturer’s ex-works price is firm, and under its guidance, the traders’ mentality is supported to some extent, but the demand is general, and the on-site shipments are mostly negotiated based on actual orders. Terminal enterprises have a general enthusiasm for stock preparation, and the release of demand for stock preparation before the holiday is slow, with a slight lag in follow-up.


Aftermarket forecast


In the middle of January, the POM market remained stagnant. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced at a high level, and the overall supply is abundant. The ex-factory price of domestic materials is stagnant, the pressure on inventory is moderate, and the demand is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory, and most of the goods are scattered orders. The momentum in the market is gradually reduced, and the industry has many holiday and delisting arrangements. It is expected that the POM market will turn into weak operation due to weak demand in the short term.