On August 3, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, the market of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable on August 3, and the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable. As of August 3, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 10950 yuan / ton on August 2 of the previous trading day.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been adjusted weakly, the price of fluorite has fluctuated and increased, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has increased slightly; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream fell, the price of cryolite stabilized, and the demand in the downstream warmed up. Overall, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride remains, and the upward momentum is increased.

Aftermarket forecast

The cost is stabilizing, the demand is stable, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is still there, and the upward momentum is increasing, and the aluminum fluoride market will fluctuate and adjust in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China was 996.67 yuan / ton on August 2, up 7.55% from the previous working day. The market rebounded and rose, and the quotation of Shandong refinery was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton.

Last week, the sulfur market continued to decline broadly, the price fell to a low level, the manufacturer’s shipment increased, the inventory pressure weakened, and the downstream active replenishment operation was beneficial to the sulfur market to a certain extent, boosting the market mentality. The manufacturer raised its quotation according to its own shipment situation. However, due to the overall weak situation and limited demand, it is expected that the sulfur market will be adjusted and increased in a narrow range, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

At the beginning of the month, the information on the floor was very limited. The domestic MIBK market was adjusted and operated. The floor demand was generally flat, and the negotiation reference was 10200-10400 yuan / ton. Today, the acetone market at the raw material end is strong. The two major factories in East China raised 100 yuan / ton to 4900 yuan / ton, and the negotiated value of the whole East China market is 4900 yuan / ton. Domestic factories may have maintenance plans in August, because despite the high level in Hong Kong, it is expected that the supply chain will decrease in August, and the raw material propanone market will be strong in August. However, the strength of the raw material end has not affected the downstream MIBK market, mainly due to the lack of terminal orders and the steady progress of the cargo carriers. In fact, Xu paid attention to the actual order negotiation in the field.

There is no pressure on enterprise inventory for the time being, orders are dominant, and the circulation volume of intermediate trade is limited. The shippers offer steadily, and the downstream just needs to follow up. The short-term MIBK market operates in shock, and the negotiation reference is 10200-10300 yuan / ton.

441 * silicon price trend

As of July 29, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of 441 × metal silicon in China was 17990 yuan / ton, down 0.72% from last week. Metallic silicon showed signs of declining this week. Although the quotations of some silicon factories remained firm, the prices of metallurgical grade silicon were loosened and lowered under the pressure of downstream aluminum alloy users.

On the 22nd, the prices of 441# silicon in various regions are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 17900-18100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 17900-18100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 17700-17800 yuan / ton, with an average of 17750 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 17500-17700 yuan / ton, with an average of 17600 yuan / ton; Shanghai #441 metal silicon price range is 18500-18700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18600 yuan / ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Supply side

At present, the production cost of silicon plant is high, the contradiction between power supply is prominent, and the electricity price is higher than that in previous years. At the same time, the price of silicon coal and electrode remains high. The price of silicon coal is about 2100 yuan / ton, and the price of electrode is about 16000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the cost side support of metal silicon is strong.

Demand side

The price of organosilicon DMC fell weakly, with the mainstream price falling by 20000 yuan / ton, the price of aluminum alloy falling by 800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of 17000 yuan / ton. The overall order shortage of the two downstream products led to the reduction of enterprise profits and the weakening of operating rate, thus suppressing the price of metal silicon.

The market price of polysilicon is 278333.34 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The future production capacity has been basically realized on the silicon price.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of silicon is obviously supported by the cost side, and the willingness of silicon manufacturers to support the price is also strong. However, the poor performance of downstream aluminum alloy and silicone has led to weak demand for metallic silicon, and there are serious differences between upstream and downstream. It is expected that the trend of returning home in the short term will show a game situation.

On July 28, the rare earth index was 760 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 24.53% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 180.44% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, and the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 12500 yuan / ton to 985000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 7500 yuan / ton to 820000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 865000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1065000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1155000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 860000 yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide was 13.85 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.5 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 2.315 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal fell by 30000 yuan / ton to 3.08 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 2.31 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market fell, traders were still active, metal factories were cautious and just needed to follow up, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell slightly, the price trend of terbium series was temporarily stable, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar banned exports, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will decline slightly in the later period.