On July 27, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 190500-193500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 192000 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the 26th, most LME London metals rose, only London tin and London nickel fell, of which London tin fell 0.69%. The domestic metal market generally fell at night, with Shanghai tin falling more than 1%. In terms of inventory, the latest data of London tin inventory on the 26th was 3670 tons, a new high in the past year, dragging down London tin.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the overall start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low, with fewer orders. In terms of the market, the delivery of the contract in the spot market this week has been completed, the overall performance of the market supply is relatively sufficient, the market transaction is general, and most of the goods are shipped at a discount. The recent trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

On July 26, the rare earth index was 769 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 23.63% from the peak of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 183.76% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, and the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium rose. The price of metal praseodymium and neodymium rose by 12500 yuan / ton to 997500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 827500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 870000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1090000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 865000 yuan / ton, and the price of terbium oxide rose by 50000 yuan / ton to 13.8 million yuan / ton, The price of metal terbium rose by 50000 yuan / ton to 17.5 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.33 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.11 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.31 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price rose slightly, and the activity of traders increased. Metal factories were cautious and just needed to follow up. The price trend of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market was temporarily stable, the price of terbium was higher, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar banned exports, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will rise slightly in the later period.

On July 25, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3587.50 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from the previous working day. Last week, the acetic acid market fell weakly. On Monday, the domestic market waited to be sorted out, and the downstream demand was weak. The market entry purchase just needed to follow up. The trading atmosphere in the market was general, and the decline slowed down. Enterprises mainly gave up profits and sold goods. The supply and demand in the market were deadlocked, and the operators were cautious about entering the market. The short-term acetic acid market consolidation and operation, with specific attention to market transactions.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on July 22 was 116.42, down 1.35 points from yesterday, down 18.38% from the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 38.07% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business agency showed that this week (July 18-22), the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride was volatile and reduced by 2.55%, and the mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride at the beginning of the week was 2210 yuan / ton, and the main quotation at the weekend was 2153.75 yuan / ton. Domestic manufacturers have normal production, sufficient spot inventory, insufficient cost support, weak demand, empty market mentality, and some manufacturers reduce prices to promote transactions.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business agency showed that this week (July 18-23), the average market price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell from 226.67 yuan / ton to 196.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 14.49% year-on-year. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently fallen slightly, the cost support is general, the downstream market is short, and the enthusiasm for procurement has weakened. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid has recently fallen slightly.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 5802 yuan / ton on July 18 and 6110 yuan / ton on July 22. This week, the bidding price of feed gas was raised, which gave favorable support to liquefied natural gas. The continuous rise of foreign gas has also driven the continuous rise of domestic liquefied natural gas. The willingness to replenish natural gas has increased under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down in the downstream. According to the analysis, the recent LNG market trend is concentrated higher, and the market is running better. In the case of good demand release, low-cost liquid plants may continue to raise prices, and it is expected that the price of liquefied natural gas will continue to dominate in the short term.

Future forecast: in the near future, the supporting force of raw material costs is weak, market confidence is insufficient, downstream demand continues to be light, and transactions are general. It is expected that the future polyaluminum chloride market will be stable and weak.

On July 21, the quotation range of 1# lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 15100-15250 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15175 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 20th, the metal market closed up across the board. In recent days, the continued weakness of the US dollar index and the macro concerns about European natural gas supply boosted the stock market, and the metal market was boosted and rose across the board. Lun lead and Shanghai lead rose by more than 1%. In the morning of the 21st, Shanghai lead continued its nighttime trend and continued to rise. As of the close of the 21st, the main 2208 contract of Shanghai lead closed up 1.23%.

In terms of fundamentals, there has been little change in supply recently. Refineries have successively completed maintenance and resumed production, and the output has rebounded recently. In terms of primary lead, it has not been recovered due to power rationing in Anhui. In the downstream, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the coming peak season, battery sales have improved to a certain extent, lead prices have declined in the early stage, and some downstream actively purchase. At present, the social inventory of lead ingots has declined as a whole. On the whole, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable. The demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to decline, boosting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have some room to rise under the demand boost.