On July 21, the quotation range of 1# lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 15100-15250 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15175 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 20th, the metal market closed up across the board. In recent days, the continued weakness of the US dollar index and the macro concerns about European natural gas supply boosted the stock market, and the metal market was boosted and rose across the board. Lun lead and Shanghai lead rose by more than 1%. In the morning of the 21st, Shanghai lead continued its nighttime trend and continued to rise. As of the close of the 21st, the main 2208 contract of Shanghai lead closed up 1.23%.

In terms of fundamentals, there has been little change in supply recently. Refineries have successively completed maintenance and resumed production, and the output has rebounded recently. In terms of primary lead, it has not been recovered due to power rationing in Anhui. In the downstream, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the coming peak season, battery sales have improved to a certain extent, lead prices have declined in the early stage, and some downstream actively purchase. At present, the social inventory of lead ingots has declined as a whole. On the whole, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable. The demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to decline, boosting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have some room to rise under the demand boost.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2430 yuan / ton on July 20, up 3.46% from the previous trading day. On July 20, the main contract of domestic methanol futures m2209 closed at 2435 yuan / ton in late trading, up 96 yuan / ton or 2.35% from the closing of the previous trading day. The oil price is relatively strong. Yankuang Guohong, the main manufacturer, plans to overhaul the device, which is expected to drive the methanol market on the supply side. The overall market mentality is firm and wait-and-see, but the supply side is still relatively abundant at present. From the demand side, the downstream just needs to purchase. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is mainly volatile.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1733.33 yuan / ton on the 11th, down 1.89% from the previous working day. The quotation of Shandong refinery was stable and small, and some refineries were reduced by 50 yuan / ton.

At present, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the shipment of enterprises is poor, there is inventory pressure, there is a low-cost supply in the market, the downstream purchase is cautious, the enterprise quotation is weak and downward, the sulfur support is weak, the short-term sulfur market is weak and mainly sorted out, and specific attention is paid to the downstream follow-up.

On July 18, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17325 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. The inventory of major factories is not under pressure, the mentality of supporting the market is dominated, the downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market is general, a small number of just need to follow up, the shippers make profits to negotiate shipping, the atmosphere of on-site trading is still light, and the mentality of the operators is mainly stalemate and wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16900-17400 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17200-17700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be weak and the price range will fluctuate. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on July 15 was 96.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.66% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 16.15% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

Commodity market: according to the data monitoring of business agency, this week (July 11-16), the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in China is about 15757.14 yuan / ton. The production of the main manufacturer is normal, and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell weakly this week. As of July 15, the price of acrylonitrile was 10580 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from 10700 yuan / ton last Friday. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at a low price. At present, the cost pressure of supply area restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: on July 15, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 10666.67 yuan / ton, down 5.88% from Monday’s price and 24.35% from June 15. Recently, the raw material propylene market is mainly consolidated, the cost side support is general, and the acrylic acid operating rate is lower than that in the early stage, but the market support is limited, mainly because the demand side performance is light, the transaction is just needed, the downstream procurement is cautious and low-cost procurement is mainly, the market mentality is insufficient, and the acrylic acid market is under pressure. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream trends.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG price continued to rise this week. The average domestic LNG price was 5766 yuan / ton on July 11 and 5798 yuan / ton on July 15. Domestic LNG prices rose 0.55% this week. Recently, the number of overhaul liquid plants has increased, and the trend of LNG market is stable and positive. However, the market demand is weak, waiting for the release of terminal demand. It is expected that in the short term, the price of liquefied natural gas will remain stable and the consolidation operation will prevail.

Aftermarket forecast: this week, the cost of raw materials continued to decline, cost support weakened, the market spot inventory was sufficient, the market mentality was bearish, and the transaction was general. It is expected that the aftermarket polyacrylamide market will not change much, and there is a great possibility of stability and weakness.