Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (May 6): 7525 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market is down today, and the average production price in Henan is down 1.63% from the previous working day. Affected by public health incidents, the logistics transportation is not smooth, the on-site freight is high, the manufacturers have difficulties in shipping, and the downstream purchase is limited. Individual enterprises have slightly reduced their quotation according to their own shipping clearance. At present, cryolite manufacturers have great pressure on production costs, lower enterprise operating rate and less inventory. Enterprises reflect the stability and improvement of downstream demand, and the wait-and-see mentality of operators.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market will be sorted out and wait-and-see, and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (May 5): 17550 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 1.27% compared with the previous working day, and the market is weak. Affected by public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, downstream demand purchase is limited, terminal industry is depressed, market trading is weak, suppliers store and repair plans for multiple sets of TDI devices, market supply is tight, and from the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market situation is mainly stalemate. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16700-17000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: wait and see the TDI market in the later stage, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise in April. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2700.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 2816.67 yuan / ton on April 29, an increase of 4.32% in the month.

Supported by the continuous rise in the price of upstream raw materials, in April, domestic sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers successively raised the ex factory price, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to continue to rise.

In April, the price of domestic soda ash rose by 3.86%, the price of sulfur rose by 5.91%, and the price of raw materials continued to rise. In the future, the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite will be strongly supported.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, it is expected that the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will continue to be strong in May.

It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream ex factory price of urea increased slightly this month: the price increased from 2963.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3046.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.80%, an increase of 40.37% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and there is still an upward trend at the end of the month.

On April 29, the urea commodity index was 141.67, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 2.01% from the highest point of 144.57 points in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 154.80% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In April, the price of urea rose slightly, with the highest increase of 0.75% in a single week. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased slightly this month:

The upstream support is good, the downstream demand is enhanced, and the urea price rises

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose slightly as a whole this month: the price of liquefied natural gas fell first and then rose. The price fell from 7374.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7208.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.25%, and a year-on-year increase of 135.81% compared with the same period last year.

The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4936.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 2.63%, up 30.25% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell broadly this month, from 11933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 10166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.80%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand in the South started and the industrial demand in the North increased. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers started maintenance in May, and the supply decreased. There is a small volume at the exit. India issued a new round of non quantitative urea bidding. Various factors continue to drive up the price of urea. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.

The demand for urea increased slightly in the upstream and strengthened in the downstream

The urea market may rise slightly in the middle and early ten days of May, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream cost of urea has been well supported recently, the downstream demand has increased, the urea supply has declined, the supply of chemical fertilizer is mainly guaranteed and the price is stable, and the urea rises slightly in the future.

Price trend in April

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, cryolite was sorted upward in April, and the price trend fell first and then rose. On April 29, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from 7550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall increase of 1.32% during the month and 19.53% year-on-year.

In April, the domestic cryolite market was sorted out on the sidelines. The cryolite raw materials were tight, the manufacturer’s cost pressure was high, the enterprise’s operating rate was reduced, the inventory was reduced, and the manufacturer’s quotation was mainly high. In the later stage, due to the impact of regional prevention and control, the logistics transportation was blocked, and the on-site freight increased. The downstream side needed stability and good. According to their own shipment, the enterprise raised the market quotation slightly. As of the 29th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7000-8600 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was increased by 300 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market is relatively strong. On April 29, the average price of soda ash was 2687.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.86% compared with the price of 2587.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, the price of soda ash was stable and small, the market trading atmosphere was mild, the downstream just needed to purchase, the decline of soda ash inventory was not obvious, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers increased.

The downstream aluminum price fluctuated downward in April. On April 29, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 20826.67 yuan / ton, down 8.41% from the average price of 22740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Affected by the emotional fermentation of public health factors and the expectation of interest rate increase policy in peripheral markets, the price of bulk commodities generally moved downward, the price of aluminum ingots in the spot market followed the decline, and the market demand was weak. However, the inventory of domestic mainstream society continued to accumulate, the aluminum price fell sharply, and the market fluctuated.

Future forecast

At present, the cryolite market is mainly high, the cryolite operating rate is low, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, the market supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. From the performance of supply and demand, it is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be high in the later stage, and the price will be stable temporarily.