During the week, the operating load of Zhejiang Petrochemical gradually increased, and the overall supply was abundant. Although the contract demand was relatively stable, the spot market trading was not smooth, and local inventory pressure still existed. The market remained deadlocked and watched. As of August 22nd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8200-8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 8050-8150 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.
Abundant supply:
During the week, the operating load of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520000 ton acrylonitrile plant in the East China market gradually increased, and it will gradually recover to around 95% this week. Daqing Petrochemical’s 80000 ton acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance for about 24 days on August 20th. The overall capacity utilization rate has improved, and the supply is still saturated, but the spot buying gas continues to be insufficient, and local enterprise inventories have risen. According to statistics, as of August 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 73.26%, an increase of 0.81% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output was about 81900 tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons compared to the previous cycle. As of August 20th, the total inventory was around 46000 tons, an increase of+0.05 million tons from last week.
Insufficient demand:
The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the capacity utilization rate of ABS is 71.10%, unchanged from last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 74.09%, which is -2.79% compared to last week. Daqing Petrochemical is undergoing maintenance; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 53.54%, an increase of 5.90% compared to last week, and facilities in Anhui, Henan and other places resumed operation. The procurement of raw material acrylonitrile is still insufficient, and the spot trading atmosphere in the market is still average.
Cost reduction:
During the cycle, upstream propylene prices fluctuated and fell, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production decreased. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices remained stable, and the production loss situation slightly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8808 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -1.44%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -558 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 74 yuan/ton.
Overall, there is ample supply, continuous shortage of spot buying gas combined with cost decline, and a lack of effective positive fundamentals to promote it. However, as the end of month settlement approaches, overall supplier offers remain stable, and the market deadlock is difficult to break. It is expected that the weakness will continue in the short term.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market price fluctuated narrowly. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.40% compared to the beginning of the month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene has fallen, and the cost support of epoxy propane has weakened. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6548.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Some factories in Shandong have smooth shipments, but inventory is tight, and there is a positive attitude towards pushing up the epoxy propane market. It is expected that the market price of epoxy propane will mainly fluctuate and operate strongly in the short term.
On the demand side: downstream essential procurement of epoxy propane is the main focus, with average new order volume and some low-priced transactions still acceptable. Due to poor demand transmission and insufficient driving force for the rise of epoxy propane, it is expected that the epoxy propane market price will mainly fluctuate narrowly in the near future.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of epoxy propane in the market is tight, and raw material prices have also declined. In addition, downstream markets have a strong demand for purchasing, and the trading atmosphere is average, which limits the market’s upward momentum. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and upstream and downstream supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and fell in mid August, with some brand products experiencing price reductions. As of August 20th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7215 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.03% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In mid August, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe eased, and market concerns about unstable crude oil supply weakened. At the same time, OPEC+production expectations were clear, and there were certain negative factors in international oil prices. The trend of propane follows that of crude oil, and the cost support of PDH manufacturing enterprises has declined. The supply of propylene has tightened and then loosened, coupled with insufficient demand follow-up, causing prices to rise first and then fall synchronously within the range. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials within the range show a loosening trend in cost support.
Supply side:
In mid August, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with a small increase. The overall industry load level within the range has narrowly increased to 78%, with a weekly average total output of over 780000 tons. The current on-site supply remains abundant, with inventory levels approaching over 830000 tons and slow digestion. Overall, there has been no improvement in the support for spot prices from the PP supply side, and there are still many pressures.
In terms of demand:
In mid August, the trend of low season consumption of polypropylene continued, and the demand for PP remained weak, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. Merchants have a low willingness to stock up in advance, with a focus on scattered small orders and contract delivery for new orders on site, and a preference for on-demand operations. The liquidity of the supply is average, and the release speed of PP demand remains slow. As we approach the end of August, the peak and off peak seasons are about to change. Although downstream enterprises have low loads, there is a potential willingness to build warehouses in areas such as plastic weaving, construction, and agriculture. However, the current macro guidance is not clear, and in the pattern of weak exports and domestic demand, the demand side of PP does not provide strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
In mid August, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and fell. Fundamentally speaking, there are signs of loosening in the upstream raw material market, and overall support for PP has weakened. The industry load is high, stable, and slightly rising, with expectations of loose supply in the future, and consumption is at a low season level. The current supply-demand contradiction is difficult to improve, and the mentality of industry players is bearish. It is expected that the PP market will continue to remain stagnant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has risen. On August 18th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 525 points, up 18 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.86% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 93.73% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all significantly increased. As of the 19th, the price of neodymium oxide was 650000 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.18% since August; The price of neodymium metal is 777500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 17.80%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 642500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 18.43%; The price of praseodymium metal is 765000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 14.18%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 762500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.97%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 625000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20.19%.
In August, the domestic light rare earth market prices rose significantly, and the domestic light rare earth market supply was relatively tight. There were macro news leaks, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products may further tighten, exacerbating market expectations of shortages. As a result, the light rare earth market prices rose significantly. The booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has driven downstream magnetic material factories to see a significant increase in orders in the fourth quarter. In addition, sufficient orders from magnetic material manufacturers have boosted domestic demand for light rare earths, leading to an upward trend in the light rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have shown positive purchasing sentiment, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident; In addition, the long-term growth trend of terminal demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines, and other devices remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in the terminal is expected to continue to increase, and the market trend of light rare earths is expected to rise in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a downward trend since August. As of August 18th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month.
In terms of PTA equipment, Taihua and Hainan have shut down, while Weilian and Jiaxing have restarted. The shutdown of the equipment has been reduced for continued maintenance, and the overall supply has rebounded. The 3.2 million ton unit of Hailun Petrochemical was tested and discharged at the end of July, gradually increasing its load, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained around 76%.
The peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term. As of August 15th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.80 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.85 per barrel.
The space for downstream polyester load recovery is limited, and under the constraint of high weaving inventory, seasonal hoarding has not shown significant improvement. Polyester factories still have expectations for the traditional peak season, but it is difficult to achieve sustained replenishment without widespread demand recovery. Maintain a wait-and-see atmosphere overall, with a focus on essential procurement.
Business analysts believe that the current PTA new plant is put into operation, with a slight increase in the supply side. In addition, the international oil price performance is sluggish, the cost center continues to decline, and coupled with the overall weak trend of commodities, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate and decline.