According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle. From October 1st to October 13th, 2025, the price of butadiene was reduced from 8886.67 yuan/ton to 8380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7%. The overall performance of the domestic butadiene market in this cycle is weak, with a wide range of ex factory prices for major refineries in China. The overall performance of downstream demand is poor, and the trend of the synthetic rubber market is weak. The enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak. The actual transaction performance in the market is poor, and there is a lack of demand support, resulting in a weak overall performance of the butadiene market. As of October 13th, the delivery price to the Shandong market is between 8500-8600 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 10th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.90 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract is $62.73 per barrel. During this cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. Russia and Ukraine have tense geopolitical factors, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have stimulated the crude oil market to rise; On the other hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Palestinian Israeli situation, coupled with weakened US demand, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariff issues, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8800 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China is weak and declining. Currently, downstream terminals are inquiring on demand, and the ex factory price of Shunding rubber has been reduced by 300 yuan/ton after the holiday. Market transactions are light, and merchant offers are weak and declining. As of October 13th, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are around 11300 to 11500 yuan/ton, while some private brands are priced around 11000 to 11350 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: There has been no significant increase in downstream demand in the near future, and overall market expectations remain weak. With the intention of purchasing for essential needs, the spot market is generally weak, and there is a lack of positive factors to boost the market. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will be weak and volatile in the short term, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.
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