Trade name: TDI

Latest price (October 20): 14950.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the trend of domestic TDI market is strong. The distribution market in East China is waiting and sorting, and the market price increases. The quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market is about 14500-14700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 15000-15200 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. At present, although the units of Wanhua chemical and Gansu Yinguang have returned to normal, the actual supply in the market is relatively small. In addition, the weekly guidance price of Shanghai factory has been raised this week. In the downstream, the terminal products are in the stage of digesting inventory, and the overall just need to purchase. The operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Aftermarket forecast: from the perspective of supply and demand performance, the aftermarket TDI market will wait and see consolidation, and operate stably in the short term. Pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

On October 19, the price of aluminum fluoride rose

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 11000.00 yuan / ton on October 19, up 8.91% from 10100.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; The trend of aluminum fluoride continued to rise.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the monitoring of business society, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose in October, and the cost of aluminum fluoride rose; On the 19th, the rising trend of aluminum fluoride stabilized, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride weakened.

According to the monitoring of business society, the high price of electrolytic aluminum rose in October. On October 18, the aluminum commodity index was 134.77, an increase of 2.59 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 148.56% over the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). Aluminum prices hit a new high, and the demand for aluminum fluoride remains strong.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the recent rise in the cost of aluminum fluoride has slowed down, the rising power of aluminum fluoride has weakened, the aluminum price has reached a new high, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is high. With the intensification of power restriction, the start-up of aluminum fluoride enterprises has dropped slightly, and the supply of aluminum fluoride has decreased. It is expected that the rising power of aluminum fluoride will remain in the future, and the price of aluminum fluoride will rise slightly.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the current price of PTA rose slightly today (October 18). The average price in the domestic market was 5543 yuan / ton, up 0.53% yuan / ton compared with the previous day, up 60.63% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed 5568, up 76, or 1.38%.

With the gradual restart of some PTA units and sufficient spot supply, the overall operating load of domestic PTA units has increased to more than 72%. Among them, the 3.75 million ton unit of Yisheng Dalian was discharged on October 15, and the load has been increased at the weekend; Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit began to increase the load on October 15. At present, it is basically normal.

International crude oil remained at a high level, which boosted PTA costs. As of October 15, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.28/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.86/barrel. In the short term, winter demand will continue to be good, and the oil market may run strong. In addition, unplanned production reduction and shutdown events occurred in PX units in many Asian countries, and the PX market price (CFR China) was US $969-971 / ton, with a daily increase of US $17 / ton.

During the rotating maintenance and opening of the downstream polyester unit, some units recovered slightly after the production reduction of some units, and the domestic comprehensive load rose to about 80%. In addition, driven by the limited power production policy and the start of terminal demand, the destocking is obvious, and the profit situation has been repaired. In terms of price, the mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose about 100-200 yuan today. In the terminal market, affected by the continuous rise of raw materials, the resistance of downstream enterprises is gradually heating up, mainly taking goods cautiously.

Business analysts believe that from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply increases, the demand follow-up is limited, and there is an accumulation trend in short-term PTA. However, crude oil still has an upward driving force, which supports PTA well. It is expected that PTA market will still maintain a narrow upward trend.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose sharply after the festival (10.8-10.15). According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 15, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China was 14880 yuan / ton, up 12.56% from 13220 yuan / ton before the festival.

During the festival, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the domestic chemical market rose after the festival. Domestic polybutadiene rubber manufacturers also frequently raised the ex factory price of polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 15, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 14700 yuan / ton, an increase of 1800 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival; The market offer has risen sharply, but the span is large. According to the understanding of business society, the mainstream price in Shunding market such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan and Sichuan is around 14700 ~ 15500 yuan / ton.

Since October, the start-up of polybutadiene rubber has changed little, and the supply side is basically stable.

Natural rubber prices rose sharply after the festival, forming a favorable atmosphere for CIS polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 15, the price of domestic natural rubber was 13716 yuan / ton, up 4.04% from 13184 yuan / ton before the festival.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the rising price of natural rubber will benefit cis-polybutadiene rubber. At present, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber is high, but the downstream is in conflict with the high price and the transaction is deadlocked. It is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will be difficult to rise again in the later stage.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (October 14): 8710.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on the 14th, the acetic acid market fell. The average price of acetic acid in East China decreased by 160 yuan / ton, down 1.80%. The downstream operation is low, the demand is general, and the response to high price acetic acid is weak. Traders purchase on demand, and the actual transactions are mainly negotiated. The market transaction is not smooth, the inventory of acetic acid manufacturers accumulates, the market price is high and down, and the on-site operators are partial to stalemate on the market mentality.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand is mainly rational. Under the condition of gradual recovery of domestic acetic acid plants, the market inventory is accumulated. In order to maintain shipment, the enterprise is expected to sort out the weak future acetic acid market, and pay more attention to the downstream transaction.