Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on October 27 was 4881 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.46% compared with the average early trading price of 4585 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of October (October 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 12.05%.

On October 27, the spot market price of gold was 367.64 yuan / g, a decrease of 3.3% compared with the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market price at the beginning of October (10.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 6.38%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in October

Recently, the fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large. On the whole, silver is at a low level in the early stage, and the rebound is stronger.

List of dollar indexes

Overall, today’s precious metal price trend has little correlation with the US dollar index, mainly due to the general decline of metal plates and the conduction of market sentiment. The financial attributes of precious metals are weakened.

Recent policy focus

On Thursday, the United States will announce its gross domestic product (GDP);

On Friday, the United States will release the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation index;

The central bank can focus on Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision and issue a statement on monetary policy decision. Determine whether to continue to maintain the expansionary policy;

In the longer term, we can focus on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting from November 2 to 3.

Domestic cobalt price shocks stabilized this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price fluctuated and stabilized this week, and the cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted strongly. As of October 26, the cobalt price was 400800 yuan / ton, slightly higher than the cobalt price of 400200 yuan / ton last weekend (October 17), an increase of 0.15%. Cobalt prices rose slightly this week, and the overall cobalt Market stabilized.

Mobile phone shipments fell both month on month and month on month

According to the analysis report on the operation of the domestic mobile phone market in September 2021 released by the China Academy of communications and communications, the mobile phone shipment in the domestic market in September was 21.44 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, 24.306 million in August, and 11.8% in September; In the third quarter of 2021, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 7442.2, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. From January to September 2021, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 249 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Mobile phone sales fell both month on month and month on month for two consecutive months. Although mobile phone shipments continued to rise year-on-year from January to September, the future mobile phone market was full of fatigue, and the decline of mobile phone sales was bad for the cobalt market.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent strong performance of the new energy vehicle market remains, but the proportion of ternary batteries has declined, indicating that the cobalt market has not borrowed the dynamic wind of new energy vehicles, and the demand for cobalt has increased greatly; In terms of the performance of the mobile phone market, the mobile phone shipments have both declined for two consecutive months on a month on month basis, and the demand for cobalt at the mobile phone end has declined significantly. Although the continuous rise of the international cobalt price has stimulated the domestic cobalt price to rise, the weak performance at the demand end has insufficient impetus for the rise of the cobalt price, but in the long run, the rise in the demand of the cobalt market is inevitable, and the long-term rise of the cobalt market has sufficient support, Cobalt prices are expected to rise slightly in the future.

On October 25, the cryolite commodity index was 85.02, up 1.21 points from yesterday, down 16.00% from the highest point of 101.21 points in the cycle (October 31, 2011), and up 28.14% from the lowest point of 66.35 points on September 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

On October 25, the price trend of cryolite market in Henan rose. The average price of cryolite market was 7000 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.45% over the previous working day. The upstream raw materials were tight, the price market rose, the cost of cryolite increased, and the market kept up with the rise. Coupled with the impact of limited power and limited production, the production capacity of cryolite enterprises was low, and the manufacturers adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment, The market continued to be strong and upward. The cryolite manufacturer’s equipment starts normally, the enterprise inventory is low, the downstream demand is stable, the shipment is stable, the market supply is tight, and the enterprise cryolite price is high.

On October 22, the rare earth index was 633 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 36.70% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 133.58% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 655000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 795000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 675000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 12500 yuan / ton to 897500 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 817500 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.76 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 15000 yuan / ton to 2.74 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 3.545 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market increased, the recent procurement was general, and the price trend of praseodymium neodymium series mainly increased, Recently, the price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market has risen, the price of terbium has risen, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later stage.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on October 21 was 7225 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of October 21, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 565000 tons, an increase of 81500 tons over last Thursday, an increase of 16.86%, and an increase of 50000 tons over this Monday, an increase of 9.71%.

In terms of units, the 400000 ton syngas MEG unit of Rongxin in Inner Mongolia shut down due to failure today, and Tongliao gold coal in Inner Mongolia shut down on October 20. The restart time is to be determined.

The overall fundamental support of MEG is weakened. The inventory is low, the inventory has accumulated slightly recently, and the unloading at East China port has accelerated slightly, but a large number of goods still haven’t arrived. At present, the pilotage has not been significantly improved, and the arrival is expected to be delayed in the later stage. The external price of ethylene glycol fell for two consecutive days, and the external atmosphere continued to fall in the afternoon today. Recently, the ship’s offer was around us $875 / ton, and there was no substantive offer. Another important factor is coal, whose price has fallen sharply recently, and the price of ethylene glycol has also been deeply adjusted.

Forecast: short term MEG is dominated by weak shocks.