Price analysis of this week (7.2-7.9, the same below)

This week, the price of silicon remained stable and rose slightly in some areas. According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silicon metal in mainstream areas on the 9th was 14425.00 yuan / ton, 0.41% higher than last week, up about 400 yuan / ton from the same period last month.

On September 9, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port area is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14700 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Tianjin port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of ᦇ 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 14300-14500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14400 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Sichuan is 14100-14300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14200 yuan / ton; Fujian ᦇ 441 metal trading range 13400-13600 yuan / ton, the average price of 13500 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Shanghai is 15100-15300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan / ton.

Market this week

At the downstream end, the domestic silicone DMC market has a good trading atmosphere, and the upstream and downstream support each other. The overall silicone DMC will still maintain a high level of operation. As of August 8, the factory reference of silicone DMC in mainstream areas is around 30500 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the resumption of production of Yunnan silicon plants continued. Some silicon plants in Chongqing stopped production for maintenance in July, and some silicon plants in Sichuan were affected by environmental protection policies, which increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week, but did not affect the production of most silicon plants.

Future forecast

Under the active support of downstream transaction, the possibility of silicon price falling in the near future is not great, and it is expected that it will run at a high level in the short term.

Domestic cobalt prices continue to rise

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the cobalt market continued to trend in June in July, and the price of cobalt rose. As of July 9, the cobalt price was 371666.66 yuan / ton, up 5.89% compared with that of 351000.00 yuan / ton on June 1; The cobalt price rose 8.46% compared with the price of cobalt on June 17, 342666.66 yuan / ton; The price of cobalt rose by 1.55% from the price of 366000.00 yuan / ton on July 1. After the first half of the storage, cobalt City ushered in an outbreak in the second half.

Co market supply

According to the data of Customs network, in may2021, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials amounted to 73 million tons of metal tons, a 31% decrease on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 95% year on year. From January to may 2021, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials amounted to 39000 tons of metal tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year. Affected by the blockade of ports in South Africa in 20 years, the import of cobalt raw materials decreased sharply in May of 20 years. In May of 21, the import volume of cobalt raw materials rose sharply year on year, 31% lower than that of April, the import of cobalt raw materials decreased significantly and the supply increment of cobalt Market decreased. In March, the cobalt price fell sharply, the domestic cobalt market was more active in import, and the stock of domestic cobalt market accumulated. Meanwhile, the sharp decline of cobalt price in March made some enterprises delay the purchase of cobalt raw materials, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased month on month in May. With the stable cobalt price, the expected return of cobalt raw materials to Hong Kong in June. And in the first quarter, the domestic cobalt market has accumulated enough stock, and it is expected that the supply of cobalt market is sufficient in the future, and the supply is short of demand.

Sales volume of new energy vehicles

According to statistics of the passenger Union, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 227000 in June, an increase of 14.7% on May, an increase of 165.7% year on year; In June, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 223000, an increase of 169.9% year-on-year, and a 19.2% increase on May. From January to June, new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale 1.87 million, an increase of 231.5% year-on-year. From January to June, new energy vehicles retail 1.01 million, an increase of 218.9% year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market has performed strongly, and demand in cobalt is expected to rise.

The impact of the epidemic in South Africa

On novel coronavirus pneumonia, South Africa President Rama Fossae announced in June 27th that when South Africa’s national television address was released, the South African government decided to raise the level of “blockade order” from three to four for the current third wave of new severe pneumonia. The South African government continuously upgraded the “blockade order” level within one month, which affected the economic operation in South Africa, affected the operation of South Africa’s ports and logistics transportation, and restricted the departure of goods. The transportation of cobalt raw materials is limited, and the supply of cobalt market may be short-term.

A summary of the market

Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles rose sharply in June, the fastest growth was the brand using lithium iron phosphate. On the contrary, the growth rate of ternary battery vehicles was low, and the demand of cobalt market was not obvious; In the first quarter, the import of cobalt raw materials in China increased greatly, and the stock of cobalt market was abundant. In April and may, the continuous low cobalt price stimulated the import of cobalt raw materials. It is expected that the import data of cobalt raw materials in the market will increase rapidly in the future, and the supply of cobalt market is sufficient.

Baijiaxin, an analyst with data from business society, thinks that the import of cobalt raw materials has not declined significantly at present, and the supply of cobalt Market in China is sufficient; The new energy vehicles sales of the demand end increased greatly, while the demand of cobalt market increased; The supply and demand relationship of cobalt city is still not unbalanced, but the South African epidemic has increased the risk of short-term shortage of cobalt, which stimulated the high cobalt price. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt Market in the future is expected to rise. The South African epidemic situation makes the supply shortage risk of cobalt market increase. At the same time, due to the abundant stock of the domestic cobalt market, the risk of supply shortage in the domestic cobalt market is limited, the space for cobalt price rise is limited, and the impact of cobalt price is difficult to hit 400000.

After a 15% rise in June, the price of silicone DMC remained high in July. According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 8, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 30566 yuan / ton, which was increased by 3900 yuan / ton or 14.62% compared with June 1 (26666 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the price trend of silicone DMC products by the business community that the market of silicone DMC in China rose sharply in June, with a rise of 15% in the whole month. At the beginning of June, silicone DMC started a steady upward path under the support of high raw materials. Then, there was an emergency in Xinjiang. Most people in the industry believed that the emergency would bring more tension to the market in the short term. Therefore, the market trend of silicone DMC in the later period was mostly bullish. Therefore, the lower reaches were in a positive state of hoarding under the fear of rising, Trading atmosphere.

With the support of various favorable factors, silicone DMC rose sharply after the Dragon Boat Festival. The biggest increase of silicone DMC in monomer factory after the festival reached 3000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, on June 17, the average price of silicone DMC exceeded 30000 yuan / ton, with reference to 30733 yuan / ton, and the high-end offer of silicone DMC was around 31600 yuan / ton. In late June, the market of silicone DMC was stable after a slight decline.

In July, the silicone DMC continued to operate at a high and stable level. As of July 8, the factory reference value of silicone DMC in mainstream areas was around 30500 yuan / ton, and the overall market price remained at a high level.

Upstream, in June, silicon metal market rose as a whole, into July, the market continued to explore a small margin. On July 7, the mainstream price of silicon metal was 14408.33 yuan / ton; Compared with the same period last month, it increased by 2.97%. From the perspective of raw materials, most of the coal plants have been shut down for a century, and the safety inspection after the accident in the coal industry has been superimposed. Most of the main supply areas of coal mines are out of stock. From the export point of view, due to the shortage of domestic supply, foreign downstream trade actively replenished, and the price of export trade sheet rose accordingly.

Future trend forecast

At present, the orders of monomer factories are mostly scheduled until mid July. Affected by the high price of raw materials, the downstream demand may be slightly weakened in the future, but the inventory pressure of silicone DMC is still small. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that the silicone DMC market will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on July 7, the nickel price fell slightly, with the spot price of 134666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from the previous day, up 5.1% from the beginning of the year, and up 25.99% from the same period last year. Shanghai nickel main opening at 138010 yuan, after the opening fell sharply to close at 135480 yuan, down 1.84%. LME3 closed at 18275 yuan, up 1.42%.

The strong US dollar put pressure on metals, and lunni fell to a two-week low of 2.22% overnight; The profit of ferronickel plant rebounded, the purchasing demand slowed down, the spot transaction of refined nickel was weak, and most businesses mainly stayed on the sidelines. The supply side of domestic nickel mines is tight, and the consumption growth of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, and the consumption of nickel sulfate has improved. Although the actual demand for downstream stainless steel is good, Indonesia’s ferronickel supply and new stainless steel production capacity will still exert pressure on nickel price. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will fluctuate widely.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the figure above, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4616.67 yuan / ton on June 28 to 4600.00 yuan / ton on July 2, down 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.36%, up 80.22% year on year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 120.52 on July 2.

The upstream support is better, and the downstream purchase intention is strengthened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend is 4650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide offer this weekend for 4450 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer fell 50 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. Shenmu’s quotation this week is 1400 yuan / ton; This week’s quotation is 1450 yuan / ton; The price of bulk material is 1500 yuan / ton this week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation increased from 8937.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.70%, 44.00% over the same period last year. This week, the price of PVC rose slightly, the market turned better, the maintenance of PVC was completed, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream calcium carbide increased. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream demand increased, with a slight rise in the future

In the first ten days of July, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market turned better and the demand increased. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in early July.