1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average domestic hips price on June 30 was 12533.33 yuan / ton, down from 13233.33 yuan / ton price at the beginning of the month, with a decrease of 5.29% in the month, and the average price of hips on July 5 was 12600 yuan / T, down 2.83% on a month-on-month basis.

2、 Market analysis

In June, hips market prices continued to decline, only in the end of the month there was a small rebound operation, the market weak operation dominated. In June, demand was light, raw styrene was volatile, cost side support fell, and affected by power limit in some regions. Some regions were affected by the trading and investment. Hips prices continued to decline. Near the end of the month, raw styrene rebounded and rose, driving the price of hips to rise. On July 5, hips market remained stable and rose sporadically. At present, the cost side support is still available, but the shipping situation is relatively general, the sales pressure of the enterprise increases, the mentality of the enterprise is negative, and the price fluctuation is limited. At present, the supply of CITIC Guoan equipment overhaul may be reduced, but the downstream demand is not enough to boost. The market of hips is mainly consolidation under the pull of supply and demand. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is about 12400-15300 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of GPPS is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and the overall price fluctuation of PS market is not large.

International crude oil market, on July 2, the international oil price was not changed much. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was USD 75.16/barrel, down slightly by 0.07 dollars. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at 76.16 US dollars / barrel, up 0.38 US dollars or 0.5%. OPEC + resumed supply policy talks Friday, with some of the remaining members still unresolved and oil prices fluctuated slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the end price of styrene is 9125 yuan / ton, down from the price of 9666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 5.6% in the month. On July 5, the reference price of styrene was 9612.50, up 3.78% compared with 9262.50 on July 1. The supply of pure benzene will be eased in July, and the high level of pure benzene is expected to be reversed. In the early stage, the restart of styrene short stop unit and production of Gulei Petrochemical have picked up, while demand will continue to be weak in the off-season, and the price fluctuation of styrene is expected to be weak in the later period.

3、 Post market forecast

According to the business agency, in July, the raw styrene fluctuated strongly, and the hips market fluctuated with it. However, the demand in the downstream of the off-season was limited, which was insufficient to boost the market. Under the pull of supply and demand, it is expected that the market of hips will be mainly consolidation and the price fluctuates slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material at the beginning of this week was 11250 yuan / ton, while the average price of EPS ordinary material at the weekend was 10775 yuan / ton, down 4.22% and up 33.02% compared with the same period of this year.

2、 Market analysis

The strong rise of pure benzene led to the rebound of styrene, and the cost support improved. Some businesses replenished goods moderately, but the terminal demand was poor. The overall transaction turned better, but not as good as last week. As of July 1, Jiangsu’s common material was 10600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.95% on a month on month basis, and its fuel was 11100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.91% on a month on month basis.

On the cost side, pure benzene supports the price of styrene, but the domestic supply of styrene may increase. In addition, the demand for downstream hard rubber is difficult to recover significantly. On the supply side, most of the EPS units will be shut down in the early stage or resume work in early July, and the output is expected to increase slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the demand for home appliances is weak, and it may be difficult for the downstream packaging industry to recover significantly. It is expected that the EPS market will weaken slightly next week.

Aluminum fluoride market price fell

In June, aluminum fluoride prices fell, and aluminum fluoride market was weak and stable. According to the data of business agency, the domestic aluminum fluoride price on June 30 was 8433.33 yuan / ton, down 3.07% from the price of 8700.00 yuan / ton on June 1. Aluminum fluoride fell.

The price fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum stabilized

According to the monitoring of business society, the high price of electrolytic aluminum stabilized in June, the demand of aluminum market recovered, export increased year-on-year, overseas demand recovered, social inventory decreased, market supply was tight, and the state was throwing aluminum ingots into storage, and the supply of aluminum ingots was relieved. The aluminum electrolysis market stabilized, aluminum fluoride downstream market fell, aluminum fluoride Market Volatility stability.

Overview and forecast of market

The analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business society believe that the price trend of aluminum fluoride raw materials is stable temporarily, the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable, and the power of aluminum fluoride rising is still in existence; The downstream aluminum price fluctuated and the demand for electrolytic aluminum increased, but some of the demand was replenished by national reserve, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was stable in general. Overall, the downward pressure of the subsequent aluminum fluoride market has weakened the momentum of the rise.

In June, the spandex market rose rapidly. As of June 30, the price was 75200 yuan / ton, 8.36% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 138.73% higher than that at the beginning of the month, reaching a new high in the past decade. The current market supply is tight, especially in June, spandex industry started to maintain a high level of about 90%, although the production capacity remains stable, but the inventory level continues to drop to a historical low.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the global consumer’s home time has generally increased, and the corresponding demand for leisure and sports clothing products has increased. Spandex is an important raw material for weaving all kinds of lightweight and comfortable elastic fabrics. The content of spandex in these garments is generally high, which leads to the increase of demand for spandex. In addition, the overall demand is strong, the application field of spandex is expanding, and there is a huge growth space in medical, automotive interior and other differentiated industries. It is estimated that the future demand for spandex will have a stable growth rate of 6% – 10%, and the supply of spandex will be orderly.

According to statistics, by 2020, the total effective production capacity of spandex in China will reach 890000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. From 2021 to 2022, new production capacity is also concentrated in Huafeng Chemical, Xiaoxing, Xinxiang Chemical fiber, Taihe new material and other leading enterprises. In 2020, the domestic production of spandex will be about 800000 tons, with an average operating rate of about 90%. In 2020, China’s Spandex export is about 65000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the apparent consumption is about 750000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. In the first five months of this year, the export volume of spandex was about 40500 tons, up 58% over the same period last year.

In addition, the strong rise of raw material end is also an important reason to drive the price of spandex up all the way. This year, affected by environmental protection, PTMEG industry chain is very hot. The market price of PTMEG is 1800 molecular weight, and the mainstream factory offers around 38000 yuan / ton, while the mainstream offer in the same period last year is 14000-15000 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of pure MDI in East China market was 19600-20000 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels, and the quotation in the same period last year was 13600-14200 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Both domestic demand and export are favorable to promote the development of spandex industry. It is difficult to improve the short-term supply shortage of spandex itself, and some factories still have the intention to explore. Superimposed raw material side support performance is acceptable, business community analysts expect the spandex market is expected to maintain a strong short term, later still need to pay attention to the cost side and terminal demand changes.

On June 29, the cryolite commodity index was 77.13, down 0.91 points from yesterday, down 23.79% from 101.21 points (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.25% from 66.35 points, the lowest point on September 5, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

The market price of cryolite in Henan was down, with an average price of 6350 yuan / ton on the 29th, down 1.17% from the previous working day, according to the data from the business club’s block list. The ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 6000-6800 yuan / ton, down by 300 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong Province is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The price fluctuation was caused by the price adjustment of individual enterprises. The overall operation of the market was mainly stable. The domestic cryolite manufacturers started their equipment normally, operated smoothly, and the inventory of the enterprises was acceptable. Most of the downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market trading was mainly discussed.

The cryolite product analyst of business news agency thinks: at present, the supply of cryolite market is fair, and the downstream demand is stable. In addition, we learned from the enterprise that the production capacity of cryolite enterprises is low, the raw materials are tight, the price is not likely to rise in a short time, the cryolite price is on the high side, the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, and the market mentality is stable and wait-and-see. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable for the time being, focusing on the market demand.