According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 5 was 37.14, the same as yesterday, down 62.86% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 36.14% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of mainstream price of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021

Data monitoring shows that from the end of August to September 5, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to decrease slightly. It was reported as 12697.5 yuan / ton on Monday and 12525 yuan / ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.36%.

From the perspective of new rubber output: the new rubber in the main natural rubber production area this month is in the peak production season. Due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation, rainfall and shipping problems, the rubber import and export volume is not high, and the raw material prices in the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated and fell weekly. The data show that the glue price in Heai, Thailand last Friday was 48.7 baht / kg, down 2.8 baht / kg from the average price of the previous week; The price of cup glue was 44.45 baht / kg, down 2.78 baht / kg month on month. The price of glue in Yunnan is 12100 yuan / ton, and the price of cup glue is 11300 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton and 40 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week; The price of glue in Hainan was 12200 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price was 12320 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from the previous week.

From the downstream demand: first, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, the data statistics show that in the week of September 2, the weekly operating rate of domestic all steel tires was 50.13%, down 5.45% month on month and 24.31% compared with the same period in 2020; The weekly operating rate of semi steel tire was 54.66%, down 3.04% from the previous week and 15.46% from the same period in 2020. On August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. Secondly, from the automobile data, according to the ten day report of key enterprises according to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in August 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 1.711 million, a month on month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 43.8% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 16.467 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars increased by 15.1% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles increased by 5.4% year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 225354 tons (+ 5762 tons) as of September 3, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 192480 tons (+ 3700 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased; In the previous period, the energy inventory of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt was 30161 tons, a decrease of 917 tons compared with August 27 and an increase of 284 tons compared with the same period in 2020. The spot inventory in Qingdao continued to decline. It is reported that as of August 27, the total inventory of local natural rubber samples was 459700 tons, a month on month decrease of 9400 tons; Among them, the inventory in the free trade zone was 77600 tons, a month on month decrease of 0200 tons, the general trade inventory was 382100 tons, a month on month decrease of 9200 tons, and the natural rubber in Qingdao port is still in the state of de stocking, and the inventory of natural rubber is accelerated.

In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export: according to the analysis, since 2021, the quotation of shipping charges from Qingdao port to the Middle East, America, Europe and other regions has been rising, and Qingdao port to Daman, Saudi Arabia The sea freight for 40 foot containers in Jebel Ali and other ports in Dubai increased from US $3500-360 to US $7700-7800 at the beginning of the year, and the sea freight for Europe and America increased from about US $9000 to US $15000-20000 at the beginning of the year. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of sea freight has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.

As for the future, according to the analysis of the business society, from the macro perspective, the adjustment of the original oil price is over, and in the medium and short term, the oil price is still restricted by the increase of supply and the weakening of demand. At present, it has entered the traditional peak production and marketing season of “golden nine silver ten”, but the weak downstream demand caused by many factors is likely to lead to weak short-term shock of natural rubber; However, driven by the overall traditional consumption peak season, there should be a round of upward prices in the middle and late of the consumption peak season; Then, in the two months at the end of the year, due to the weather, the domestic rubber producing areas will gradually reduce the output, and the rubber price will also strengthen.

Commodity index: on September 5, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 94.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.89% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.62% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed a slight downward trend last week. On August 30, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1661.11 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 1756.67 yuan / ton, with a downward rate of 0.25%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of hydrochloric acid fell this week. The mainstream quotation was about 296.67 yuan / ton on August 30 and 293.33 yuan / ton on September 5, with a range of – 1.13%. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG rose first and then fell. On August 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 5910 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 6062.67 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The quotation from September 1 to 2 is 6110 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 5910 yuan / ton on August 30, and the maximum amplitude is 3.38%.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, according to the traditional consumption characteristics, the subsequent market of polyaluminium chloride is more likely to be flat.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7666.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 7200 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 6.09% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from July to September

Isopropanol prices fell at the beginning of the week. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7000-7300 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7100-7200 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7100 yuan / ton. Internationally, on August 31, the U.S. isopropanol closed higher, and the European isopropanol market closed higher. The decline of acetone slowed down this week, and the price of isopropanol is expected to stop falling and pick up.

In terms of raw material acetone, the current decline in acetone market has slowed down. According to commodity data monitoring, the average price of acetone was 6400 yuan / ton last Friday and 6300 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 1.56% during the week. At present, there is little fluctuation in the domestic acetone market. Although the market trading atmosphere is cold, the mentality of shippers can maintain range fluctuation, the enthusiasm of terminal follow-up is poor, and the operating rate of downstream plants has declined, and the firm offer is limited.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was under pressure this week. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7775 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7617 yuan / ton, down 2.04%. Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that crude oil is weak and volatile, and the demand side needs to be improved. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of business society chemical branch believes that the overall demand of domestic isopropanol market is general. The price of propylene decreased, the price of acetone decreased, the support of raw materials for isopropanol was weak, and the price of isopropanol decreased. If the price of raw material acetone stops falling and rebounds next week, the isopropanol market will follow. It is expected that the price of isopropanol will stop falling in the short term. Pay attention to the changes in the news.

The rise of aluminum fluoride market remains the same

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose this week, and the aluminum fluoride market rose strongly. As of September 2, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8966.67 yuan / ton, up 1.13% from the price of 8866.67 yuan / ton last week (August 26); Compared with August 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of aluminum fluoride was 8500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.49%. Aluminum fluoride market is strong.

Aluminum ingot prices rose during the week

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index was 118.80 on August 31, up 1.17 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). Aluminum prices rose sharply this week, and the aluminum market still rose. After hitting a record high on August 31, the price of aluminum ingots fell slightly on September 1, and then the aluminum price rebounded rapidly. The overall aluminum market rose, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride price remained.

The raw material market rose sharply

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of fluorite soared by 1.5% and the price of hydrofluoric acid soared by 6.2% this week. The market price of raw materials rose sharply, which was more favorable to the aluminum fluoride Market and increased the driving force for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material of aluminum fluoride, has soared this week, and the price of upstream fluorite has also risen sharply. The rise of raw material price has increased the cost of aluminum fluoride and stimulated the rise of aluminum fluoride price; The downstream aluminum ingot Market remains high, providing enough room for the rise of aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise sharply in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 1st, the spot price of nickel was 150133.33 yuan / ton, down 0.45% from the previous day, up 23.18% year-on-year and 17.17% from the beginning of the year. Nickel prices rebounded slightly today after rising sharply yesterday. Nickel warehouse receipts in the previous period rose 1220 tons to 3735 tons today. LME nickel inventories fell 2010 tons to 192456 tons. Nickel price fundamentals changed little as a whole. In terms of nickel ore, the price of nickel ore at home and abroad continues to operate at a high level, and the nickel inventory warehouse receipt is at a low level as a whole. Macroscopically, loose monetary policy continued. Nickel prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.