In June, the spandex market rose rapidly. As of June 30, the price was 75200 yuan / ton, 8.36% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 138.73% higher than that at the beginning of the month, reaching a new high in the past decade. The current market supply is tight, especially in June, spandex industry started to maintain a high level of about 90%, although the production capacity remains stable, but the inventory level continues to drop to a historical low.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the global consumer’s home time has generally increased, and the corresponding demand for leisure and sports clothing products has increased. Spandex is an important raw material for weaving all kinds of lightweight and comfortable elastic fabrics. The content of spandex in these garments is generally high, which leads to the increase of demand for spandex. In addition, the overall demand is strong, the application field of spandex is expanding, and there is a huge growth space in medical, automotive interior and other differentiated industries. It is estimated that the future demand for spandex will have a stable growth rate of 6% – 10%, and the supply of spandex will be orderly.

According to statistics, by 2020, the total effective production capacity of spandex in China will reach 890000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. From 2021 to 2022, new production capacity is also concentrated in Huafeng Chemical, Xiaoxing, Xinxiang Chemical fiber, Taihe new material and other leading enterprises. In 2020, the domestic production of spandex will be about 800000 tons, with an average operating rate of about 90%. In 2020, China’s Spandex export is about 65000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the apparent consumption is about 750000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. In the first five months of this year, the export volume of spandex was about 40500 tons, up 58% over the same period last year.

In addition, the strong rise of raw material end is also an important reason to drive the price of spandex up all the way. This year, affected by environmental protection, PTMEG industry chain is very hot. The market price of PTMEG is 1800 molecular weight, and the mainstream factory offers around 38000 yuan / ton, while the mainstream offer in the same period last year is 14000-15000 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of pure MDI in East China market was 19600-20000 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels, and the quotation in the same period last year was 13600-14200 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Both domestic demand and export are favorable to promote the development of spandex industry. It is difficult to improve the short-term supply shortage of spandex itself, and some factories still have the intention to explore. Superimposed raw material side support performance is acceptable, business community analysts expect the spandex market is expected to maintain a strong short term, later still need to pay attention to the cost side and terminal demand changes.

On June 29, the cryolite commodity index was 77.13, down 0.91 points from yesterday, down 23.79% from 101.21 points (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.25% from 66.35 points, the lowest point on September 5, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

The market price of cryolite in Henan was down, with an average price of 6350 yuan / ton on the 29th, down 1.17% from the previous working day, according to the data from the business club’s block list. The ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 6000-6800 yuan / ton, down by 300 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong Province is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The price fluctuation was caused by the price adjustment of individual enterprises. The overall operation of the market was mainly stable. The domestic cryolite manufacturers started their equipment normally, operated smoothly, and the inventory of the enterprises was acceptable. Most of the downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market trading was mainly discussed.

The cryolite product analyst of business news agency thinks: at present, the supply of cryolite market is fair, and the downstream demand is stable. In addition, we learned from the enterprise that the production capacity of cryolite enterprises is low, the raw materials are tight, the price is not likely to rise in a short time, the cryolite price is on the high side, the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, and the market mentality is stable and wait-and-see. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable for the time being, focusing on the market demand.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, TDI market price trend continued to rise this week, with the average market price of 13866.67 yuan / ton in East China at the weekend, up 2.72% compared with 13500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.48% compared with the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic TDI market is sorted out, the carrier’s offer is carefully watched and the negotiation of shipment is maintained. Due to the influence of Shanghai road transportation control, the unexpected parking information of Shanghai BASF device is added in the week, and the overall market offer has increased slightly. However, due to the off-season downstream terminal, and the Shanghai BASF device is restarted immediately, the favorable support is insufficient, and the TDI market is stable, The overall fluctuation is not large in the week. The dealers in East China are mainly waiting and waiting, with higher price than the market delivery transaction price. The quotation of each manufacturer is mutual present, and the quotation is stable after price adjustment in the week.

The price of toluene was lowered this week, with the domestic average price of 5781 yuan / ton, down 0.34% in the week. The downstream of toluene is generally followed up, the demand is weak, some downstream devices are overhauled, and there is no effective guidance on the site. The spot supply of toluene market is sufficient, the downstream demand is not followed up, the mentality of the industry is negative, and the toluene market is weak.

TDI data division of business agency analyzed that although TDI market in East China was sorted up this week, the quotation of enterprises rose slightly, but it lacked sustained good support, the atmosphere in the field continued to be weak, with a small number of transactions. In addition, the upstream and downstream terminals were in off-season, and the inquiry enthusiasm was general, some downstream low price inquiry was still low, and it is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable for operation in the later period, Follow the supplier information guidance.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of pure polyester yarn market is basically stable. On June 25, the spot price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong Province was stable compared with that of last week. The average price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong market was about 14100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Although the price of polyester staple fiber materials has risen month on month, the overall market of pure polyester yarn has always been mainly on the lookout, mainly due to the poor sales, insufficient basic power of price, and difficult to shake the market mentality.

2、 Factors affecting prices

From the upstream fundamentals, EIA crude oil inventory has dropped again, and oil distribution has risen to $75 for the first time in more than two and a half years, while Luntong Sanyang has reached the largest increase in nearly a month; The euro zone’s comprehensive PMI in June reached a 15-year high; The U.S. set a record PMI in June for Markit manufacturing, and services were less than expected. PTA + 75 yuan, MEG + 77 yuan, polymerization cost is 5822 yuan, polyester short production and marketing is still available, average is near to make flat. Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4d × The central price of 38mm direct spinning polyester staple fiber is 6775-6800 yuan / ton, and the ring ratio is increased by 25-50 yuan / ton.

According to customs data, from January to may 2021, the total export volume of textile and clothing in China was US $112692 million, an increase of 15.03% year-on-year. Since mid May, overseas orders have gradually recovered. According to the downstream enterprises, although the export order situation has improved, the prospect is not clear. Due to the demand for overseas export orders is not as expected, domestic demand has been slowly rising and domestic demand is limited, Price is only supported by cost side, and there is no other positive upward action force, and business expectations are generally relatively low.

Summer comes, facing the traditional off-season textile, according to some downstream businesses, this week 32S polyester yarn spot price rise and fall, due to the support of the raw material end, some businesses still choose to stable price delivery. At present, the downstream demand is increasing locally, and the market trend is smooth. In autumn, the spot trade of fabrics increased month on month, while the bulk test sheets of fabrics in the early winter increased slightly, and the overall market transaction will show a small upward trend.

3、 Post market forecast

At present, the overseas situation is not clear, the foreign trade order is difficult to continue, the summer off-season, the release of domestic demand is slightly insufficient. In the face of the rising of raw materials such as PTA and glycol upstream, it is difficult for yarn price to rise in the short term. It is expected that the price will maintain a stable situation in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, hydrogen peroxide had a rising trend in the first half of June, and continued to plunge into the market in the second half of June, with the price falling all the way. As of June 25, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 953 yuan / ton, down 5.92% from the beginning of the month.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from March 29 to June 20, 2021, it can be seen that hydrogen peroxide rose sharply at the beginning of March, with an increase of more than 5%. After the surge, hydrogen peroxide began to plunge, continuing the weak market. In April, in the middle of the month, hydrogen peroxide rose again, with an increase of more than 5%. After the May Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide was in a weak position and started a rising mode in the middle of the month. It rose to May 22, with an increase of more than 10%. At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market began to plunge, falling by more than 7%. In June, hydrogen peroxide continued to decline, with a decline of nearly 6% as of June 25.

On June 25, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted as follows:

Luxi Chemical quoted 840 yuan / ton of hydrogen peroxide, down 40 yuan / ton from the beginning of June; Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 920 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton lower than that in early June; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1100 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Off season is very light, hydrogen peroxide continues to fall

In June, the weak market of hydrogen peroxide did not end. Due to the sharp decline of paper purchasing volume, low consumption season and negative factors, the price of hydrogen peroxide still kept falling, and the manufacturers lacked confidence in supporting the price, so they reduced the ex factory price one after another. Among them, the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical industry has dropped to 840 yuan; Zhengyuan fertilizer also fell to 900 yuan. Anhui Quansheng price also fell to 1100 yuan / ton line. Hydrogen peroxide started diving mode, the market continued to bottom, down 5.92%.

On June 25, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 100.88, down 0.3 points from yesterday, down 53.96% from 219.12 points (2020-10-27), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.28% from 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to now

At the beginning of June, caprolactam continued to decline, with a decline of more than 1.4%. After the Dragon Boat Festival, caprolactam market continued to be stable, and the price rose slightly near the end of the month. Due to the general shipment of manufacturers, the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide declined, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide was poor, so the price continued to decline.

On June 25, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 131.32, which was the same as yesterday. It was 46.62% lower than the highest point 246.00 (October 21, 2019) in the cycle, and 22.11% higher than the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to now

In June, due to the limitation of environmental protection policy, the paper mills started down, the rain weather affected, and the transportation cost increased. The paper mills raised the ex factory price of corrugated paper one after another. The corrugated paper market rose all the way and continued to run at a high level, but the amount of hydrogen peroxide purchased declined. The hydrogen peroxide market rose slowly and continued to decline.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, said: it is difficult for the terminal demand of hydrogen peroxide to improve significantly in July, and it is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market will still be weak in the future, with weak rise.