Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price (December 16): 5166.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on December 16, the overall trend of domestic chlorinated paraffin market was stable, the upstream liquid wax price was relatively stable, and the liquid chlorine market declined slightly. Downstream on-demand procurement is the main, traders take goods cautiously, wait-and-see sentiment is obvious, the market price is relatively stable. Chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business club believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin is general, the overall production of chlorinated paraffin remains low, and the market continues the situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

According to reports, BASF recently sent an urgent letter saying that the supply of n-butanol in Ludwigshafen, Germany, suffered force majeure and was forced to close the factory and start repair, so it had to distribute the supply of n-butanol. The n-butanol supply in Ludwigshafen, Germany, is subject to force majeure, which will affect the downstream butyl acrylate and butyl methacrylate. The price of n-butanol rose as high as 40.3% in November. The industry expects that the domestic n-butanol market is expected to rise in the next step, and n-butanol may join the rising team again. In terms of the company, Luxi Chemical has a capacity of 450000 tons / year of n-butanol; Huachang Chemical has a production capacity of 180000 tons / year.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline stabilized at the beginning of this week, and began to rise on Thursday, according to the data from the business club’s bulk list. On December 6, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7500-7600 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, it was 7750-7850 yuan / ton; on December 13, it was 7600-7700 yuan / ton in Shandong; and 7900-8000 yuan / ton in Nanjing, the average price was 1.09% higher than last week and 13.73% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, from the end of November, the main influencing factors of pure benzene price changed from styrene to crude oil and external market. With the recovery of European and American prices and the opening of the arbitrage window between Asia and the United States, the price of pure benzene in Asia has increased significantly. The good news will drive the focus of domestic pure benzene market negotiation higher. At the beginning of the week, the domestic market continued the upward trend of last week, and the price continued to rise to Wednesday, up 4.57%. With the weakening of crude oil and styrene, the market mentality of pure benzene is weakening, and some low-cost goods sources in the early stage have begun to take profits and the prices are lower. From November 26 to December 13, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 600 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton, and 200 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton in the week. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 250000 tons. On this Sunday (December 13), the price of pure benzene was 4280-4650 yuan / ton (average 4556 yuan / ton), up 180 yuan / ton or 4.11% from last week.

Nitric acid prices stabilized this week. On Friday (December 13), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1900 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 5.56% compared with the beginning of the month.

At the end of last week, aniline in Shandong Province decreased slightly by 100 yuan / ton, then stabilized and rose to Thursday. Affected by environmental protection inspection this week, Jinling and Huatai aniline plants in Shandong have been operating at reduced load. New market supply has been reduced, and prices have risen. Aniline prices in East China have followed suit.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the supply of pure benzene in Europe and the United States is in short supply and the price remains high, which supports the price in Asia. Focus on the late crude oil, external market trend and downstream styrene market.

In winter, environmental inspection and production restriction policies were introduced, which had a certain impact on the supply and demand of aniline. Pay attention to the future trend of raw material pure benzene, the change of starting load of aniline plant and the demand change of downstream additives and MDI. It is expected that the price will rise next week.

1、 Price trend

As of December 11, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 2.38% from the beginning of the week, up 1.18% month on month, and 16.18% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, as of December 11, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 16000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 5.49% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 5.49% month on month, and decreased by 30.43% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, this week R22 market overall more stable, enterprises more stable rise. The price of raw material trichloromethane fell, some hydrofluoric acid units were overhauled, the spot supply was slightly tense, the price rose, the cost support was strong, the R22 trend was strong, some enterprises were out of stock and suspended quotation, they had to wait until the new quota came out. At present, the market inquiry heat is reduced, there are not many new orders, and most of the operators are wait-and-see, and the market situation is mainly sorted out. As of the 11th, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in R22 market were around 14000-16000 yuan / ton.

R134a, this week R134a market overall stable, individual up. The rising price of raw material hydrofluoric acid, combined with tight supply in the market and strong support from the supply side and the cost side, boosted the price of R134a. However, the demand side continued to be weak, the intention of stock preparation was not high, and the trading was general. Therefore, the rising space in the future market was limited and mainly fluctuated. As of the 11th, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in R22 market were around 16000-16500 yuan / ton.

As for the raw material hydrofluoric acid, on December 11, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 8000-9000 yuan / T, and the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the stable price of fluorite, however, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will increase slightly in the future Lord.

At present, the market of trichloromethane is mainly subject to shock adjustment, and the trading situation in the industry is general. Enterprises start to reduce the negative, inventory is low, and the upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which supports the price of methane chloride better; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is just flat, and the market support is insufficient. As of the 9th, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market was 3380-3490 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market was about 3500-3600 yuan / ton, which is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business agency, at present, raw materials are rising, and the superimposed supply is tight, and the trend of refrigerants is strong under the support of favorable conditions. It is expected that R22 market will be mainly sorted out in the short term, and R134a price may continue to rise with the cost, but due to the drag of demand, the rising space may be limited.

According to statistics from the business agency, on December 10, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. The downstream market prepared goods for the new year, but the orders for the shopping festival were gradually completed, the follow-up orders were weak, the loom started to decline, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn enterprises increased month on month.

Recently, the yarn market is still in a small adjustment, still at a high level, pure polyester yarn market stability is weak, vortex spinning quotation is stable, no order spot sales are gradually weakening. Many cotton mills, especially small mills, have gradually weakened sales and increased inventory after completing the preliminary orders, and are bearish on the future market. Imitation Dahua pure polyester yarn maintains stability. Jiangsu and Zhejiang vortex spinning pure polyester yarn negotiation, T30S mainstream reported 11000 yuan / ton, transaction negotiation. Hebei imitation Dahua yarn t45s mainstream tax free is around 9300-9400 yuan / ton. There is a lack of aftereffect in the downstream market, and the trading atmosphere is not good. It is mainly rigid. In the actual negotiation, there will still be some profits. The factory purchases on demand, and the mill stock is not much, but the profit is meager, and the overall enthusiasm for production is general. In the face of such a low market, orders can not meet the production demand. Many factories, considering the reasons of funds and machines, began to turn to receiving orders for processing with supplied materials. In this way, they only earn processing fees, do not occupy raw material funds, and can try to set up more booths to ensure stable production.

The cost side is good for support, and the recent continuous rise of crude oil is good for market production and sales, and the stronger upstream raw material price forms a strong support for the cost. The spot production and sales of staple fiber are booming. Some manufacturers of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province have increased their prices by 50-100 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise of futures, the manufacturers who did not increase their prices at the weekend have raised their quotations by about 100 yuan. The actual orders are negotiated for shipment. The mainstream quotation of 1.4d is about 5600-5800 yuan / ton, and the actual orders are about 5550-5650 yuan / ton, which can be raised by the factory and discussed by themselves. The main report of half light 1.4d in Fujian is 5700-5750. Half light 1.4d mainstream 5700-5750 was delivered to Shandong and Hebei markets. Early adjustment of futures market, I wait and see. In the futures market, staple fiber Futures (2105) rose, about 200 yuan / ton higher than last Thursday. The rise of crude oil and PTA rebound led to the rebound of polyester staple fiber futures, and the rebound of futures led to a sharp recovery of spot production and sales. However, affected by demand constraints, the spot polyester staple fiber is difficult to continue to strengthen.

After the orders of “double 11″ and “double 12″ in the downstream market are gradually delivered, the new orders are not good, and the weaving start-up rate is decreased. In recent years, the market order of conventional varieties is not good, and the delivery of grey cloth is slow, and the conventional varieties are the main products on the machine. Due to the rising price of raw materials, the price of customized fabric is hard for customers to bear and the actual order is hindered. Near the end of the year, the price of raw materials fluctuated, and most of the weaving factories were in a wait-and-see mood, and they basically did not make bulk preparation. Export market orders are relatively light, and the number of double orders has shrunk slightly. The market demand of conventional varieties began to fade, and more and more inquiries were made for the development of new varieties and new technology fabrics. Affected by the epidemic situation, they were confused in the later stage.

At the beginning of the market, the transaction of fabrics in winter is insufficient, the orders for fabrics in spring are relatively limited, the starting rate of weaving enterprises is partially insufficient, and the output of printing and dyeing enterprises is falling slightly. In the case of the reduction of orders in the weaving Market and the lack of aftereffect, the analysts of business agency believe that the ring spinning of pure polyester yarn is still stable, vortex spinning will continue to be bearish, and the market may show a partial downward trend.