This week (March 17-21), the PTA market maintained a slight recovery. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 21, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4877 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% from the beginning of the week.

The geopolitical situation is wavering between tension and easing, and the volatility of the international crude oil market still provides cost support for PTA. As of March 20th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.07 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.47 per barrel.

The routine maintenance in the PX market in the second quarter brings good news. From April to May, there has been an increase in PX maintenance both domestically and internationally. According to the announced maintenance plan, there will be a maintenance scale of 6 million tons of equipment renewed domestically, and it is expected that there will be another 3.3 million tons of equipment under maintenance plan overseas. And there is a strong expectation of demand recovery, which will significantly improve the supply and demand pattern of PX and provide strong support for PTA.

From the perspective of PTA’s own supply, the maintenance plan for supply side equipment has gradually been implemented since March, and as of March 21, the operating rate of the domestic PTA industry is around 80%. However, the market circulation of goods is still relatively loose, resulting in a surplus of spot supply in the market, which is also the reason why PTA has not effectively boosted prices despite continuous destocking. Since March, PTA processing fees have improved compared to the previous month. It is expected that the scale of equipment maintenance will be slightly reduced in April, and subsequent equipment maintenance will decrease. The supply increment is expected to rebound.

In the downstream polyester market, some polyester bottle chip devices are planned to restart, and demand will increase. The trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market is generally average, and the room for further increase in operating load is limited. The pressure on polyester filament shipments in March will not decrease, and there is currently no plan for leading production companies to continue reducing production. The market supply is sufficient.

From the perspective of terminal weaving, there is currently a lack of cash flow in the process of adding and weaving, which is in a loss making state, suppressing the improvement of the production rate of adding and weaving, as well as the enthusiasm for stocking up. Currently, the production rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is nearly 70%. The impact of international trade frictions still exists, and recently the issuance of textile foreign trade orders has been slow. There is a large flow of exhibition visitors, but the transaction volume is relatively low.

Business analysts believe that there is currently no unplanned news on the supply and demand side of PTA, and the overall PTA market lacks the latest major news guidance, following cost fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent decline in the domestic polyester staple fiber market has slowed down. As of March 20th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from March 6th. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 6968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59%.

Crude oil fluctuated strongly and adjusted. On March 19th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $70.78 per barrel. In addition, in the PX market, some South Korean PX facilities have delayed restart or extended maintenance time. At the same time, since mid March, some facilities in domestic PX factories have maintenance plans, and the PX operating rate has gradually decreased. The planned maintenance of PX units in April and May is still relatively concentrated, and the scale of maintenance is slightly lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the destocking of PX in the second quarter will exceed 500000 tons, and the spot liquidity of PX may be tight in the future.

Under the boost of costs, the recent decline in the domestic PTA market has improved slightly, showing a slight rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 20th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4848 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12% compared to March 13th. In addition, in March, PTA plant maintenance increased due to low processing costs and lower than expected terminal demand. The scale of maintenance in March has expanded again, and the current operating rate is around 76%. The expected PTA destocking in March is around 300000 tons, and the overall destocking in the second quarter is expected to be around 500000 tons.

Downstream maintenance of essential procurement, with most of the yarn factory’s raw material stocking up until around early April. The performance of “Gold Three Silver Four” did not meet expectations. The current operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is only about 67%. This year’s spring and summer orders are insufficient compared to the same period in previous years. At the same time, the release of US tariffs has further dragged down the textile market with orders placed in the export market, resulting in average demand support.

Business analysts believe that the cost side is relatively warm, which provides sufficient support for polyester short fibers. There is little change in the supply and demand side of short fibers, and the impact on prices is limited. Therefore, in the short term, the price of polyester staple fibers will narrow and consolidate.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: March 19th market average price of 6859 yuan/ton

Analysis: On March 19th, overall, the domestic pure benzene market prices fell. The price of pure benzene in foreign markets has decreased, leading to a decline in international oil prices. Shandong’s local refining enterprises’ shipments fell short of expectations, with cargo holders actively shipping, while downstream demand for gas was average, resulting in a slight decrease in market prices. The market situation in East China is still good, and there is an active effort to fill the gap. It is expected that the pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, with limited room for downward adjustment. Actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

In mid March, the domestic ABS market continued to trend weakly, with most spot prices of various grades falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11425 yuan/ton, with a price level fluctuation of -2.14% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: During mid March, there was limited change in the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry, and the overall load slightly decreased by 1% to around 73% compared to the first ten days. The average weekly output is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen to nearly 190000 tons, indicating that the supply of goods is still very abundant. There has been no improvement in petrochemical plant orders, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery. Actual orders continue to yield profits, and there are more occurrences of orders being shipped. Overall, the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices within ten days is average.

Cost factor: In mid March, the trend of ABS upstream materials continued to be weak, resulting in poor support for ABS cost side. Entering the middle of the year, the price of acrylonitrile remains weak and declining. At the same time, the high load of 80% to 90% in the industry has led to abundant supply in the market, and the profit situation of enterprises has improved to a loss. Falling to touch the theoretical production cost line, the bottoming effect of cost prices on acrylonitrile prices is gradually increasing, and the market downturn is slowing down. Expected consolidation of acrylonitrile market in the future.

The butadiene market fell first and then rose within ten days, and the overall trend is still weak. The market continues the previous trend, and the overall trading volume is weak, indicating poor market momentum. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has improved, coupled with the temporary suspension of mainstream enterprises in East China, which has boosted some businesses to try to raise prices and hold back, leading to a stabilization of the spot market atmosphere and a slight rebound in market prices.

The decline in styrene continued in mid March. The recent decline in international oil prices for raw material pure benzene, coupled with downstream production restrictions to maintain prices, has led to inventory accumulation in major ports in East China and weakened market sentiment, accelerating the decline and dragging styrene down. There is little change in the supply of styrene, and downstream demand remains stable. It is expected that the market will stabilize after a short-term decline.

On the demand side: On the terminal side, we will continue the previous flat pattern, and after the downstream buying stagnation in mid March. The load increase of the terminal factory in the inquiry is not significant, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

In mid March, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell. The performance of the upstream three materials is poor, which has a relatively negative impact on the overall cost support of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, and the inventory level is rising at a high level. The demand side expansion is still slow, and downstream enterprises have insufficient consumption. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and it is difficult to find any positive results. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1539.6 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda over the weekend was 1539.8 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.01% and a decrease of 35.44% compared to the same period last year. On March 13th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.20, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.67% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 15.78% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1400-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1700 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is 1512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.88% compared to the same period last year, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.