1、 Price trend

 
According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, during the May 1st period, the market price of trichloromethane in Shandong increased significantly. This week, the price of trichloromethane was high and firm. The average price at the beginning of the week was about 1400 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it rose to about 1650 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.86%.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: during the May 1st period, due to the high price of raw material liquid chlorine and the negative impact of some enterprises’ maintenance in East China of Shandong Province, the price of trichloromethane rose sharply, the enterprise’s inventory pressure was not great, the downstream purchase and stock situation was acceptable, and the market mentality after the festival was not good, mainly to maintain stability. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 1600-1650 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2050 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the increase of downstream replenishment and freight, the domestic methanol market price has recovered, at present, it is about 1727 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is high and volatile, and the market supply is well supported. At present, the quotation in North China is about 300-600 yuan / ton, and in East China is 700-850 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continued to decline, the market trading was cold, and there was no obvious sign of improvement. At present, the price hovered around 15000 yuan / ton; the purchase of solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry was weak, and the price support for chloroform was insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the operation rate of trichloromethane market is low at present, which is about 40-50% as a whole. The inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, but the demand of downstream market is not good, and the enterprises are on the edge of profit and loss, and it is expected that the operation will be stable in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 8, the price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 5350.00 yuan / ton, and the main negotiation price of the spot was 5400-5550 yuan / ton. The market price was stable.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the domestic pet market maintains sorting, and now the mainstream manufacturers offer prices around 5500-5600 yuan / ton. The actual price is negotiated according to the actual order quantity. The manufacturers mainly take the goods, and the inventory is general.

Industrial chain: PTA of raw materials shall be sorted and operated, with the focus of careful wait-and-see. The focus of negotiation shall not change much, the transaction atmosphere shall be general, the shipment shall be smooth, and the spot supply shall be sufficient.

Industry: on May 7, the rubber and plastic index was 565, up 5 points from yesterday, down 46.70% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and up 7.01% from 528, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that the pet market is stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend

In April, the domestic propane market rose and fell sharply, showing an overall “V” trend. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 2762.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3237.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17.19% in the month. Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 22.87%, and the earthquake amplitude in April was 40.54%.

2、 Market situation

Price: in April, the trading atmosphere of propane market was general, and the price rose. As of April 30, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3350 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3250 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton.

Market: at the beginning of the month, propane prices rose steadily. Before and after the Qingming holiday, propane rose significantly in Shandong, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved. Moreover, the continuous rise of international crude oil drives the market atmosphere, and the downstream bullish mentality is obvious. In addition, there is a demand for replenishment after the festival, so the market atmosphere is more positive. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the inventory is low, and the price continuously pushes up. At present, the terminal market has returned to normal, and the market demand has increased, which has also brought certain benefits. From April 12 to 14, polypropylene led propylene to soar. As the upstream of propylene, propane prices also rose sharply during the period. On April 12, some enterprises in propane (Shandong) market rose 1000 yuan / ton per day, setting a new record of the highest increase in recent years. However, the rise lacks fundamental support, which means that “a big rise will be accompanied by a big fall”. After April 14, the market ushered in a rational callback, and the price fell back broadly. The market is like a roller coaster. At the end of the month, after a big rise and fall, the market returned to normal. The continuous low price of liquefied gas has suppressed propane, but crude oil rose at the end of the month, and the introduction of CP in May has brought benefits to the market, and the overall price of propane shows a trend of fluctuation.

International crude oil: the broad decline of international crude oil this month has restrained the market. On April 9, the OPEC + special meeting ended, and its production reduction volume was lower than the market expectation, and the oil price fell again; on April 14, the international oil price fell again, mainly because OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreement disappointed the market, the production reduction share was difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory exceeded the expectation, which increased the market panic atmosphere; on April 20 On April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and its price rose for two consecutive days. The Brent crude oil futures market continued to decline and its price fell sharply. In May, the contract fell to a negative range, but in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. Until April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and its price rose for two consecutive days. The Brent crude oil futures market rose sharply, which is also the international crude oil company WTI rose more than 40% in the following two days, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries and the geopolitical turmoil of peripheral factors.

International market: Saudi Aramco may CP announced that propylene butane all rose sharply. Propane rose to $340 / T, up $110 / T from last month; butane rose $340 / T, up $140 / T from last month.

3、 Future forecast

Before the May 1st Festival, the manufacturer has the operation of warehouse arrangement and replenishment before the downstream Festival. The market atmosphere is good and the inventory pressure of the manufacturer is reduced. International crude oil rose, and CP rose sharply in May, which brought certain positive effects to the market. However, after May 1, the temperature gradually rises, and propane will usher in the traditional demand off-season. It is expected that the propane market will rise first and then fall in May.

In April, the price of rare earth in the domestic market fell. Recently, the downstream demand decreased, and the market price of rare earth decreased slightly. According to the business society rare earth sector index, on April 29, the rare earth index was 330 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from 1000 points (2011-12-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.77% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the month, the average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals in China was 353500 yuan / ton, with a decline of 3.81% and a year-on-year increase of 4.74%; the average price of dysprosium was 2325000 yuan / ton, with a stable price trend this week, with a year-on-year increase of 29.53%; the average price of praseodymium was 635000 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.78% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.97%. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 263500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.31%, which is flat on a year-on-year basis; the price of dysprosium oxide is 1785000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.56%, which is 20.20% higher on a year-on-year basis; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 305000 yuan / ton, which is 1.61% lower on a year-on-year basis, which is 14.08% lower on a year-on-year basis; the average price of neodymium oxide is 279000 yuan / ton, which is 2.96% lower on a year-. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 330500 yuan / ton, down 1.93%, down 2.79% year on year; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1775000 yuan / ton, down 1.11%, up 19.53% year on year.

In April, the price of domestic rare earth market fell, and the price trend of medium heavy rare earth dropped slightly. The supply of domestic heavy rare earth market was normal, and the import source of heavy rare earth was tight. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers started work normally, the domestic supply was sufficient, and the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth dropped slightly. In recent years, the demand for permanent magnet is general, coupled with the recent downturn in the new energy automobile industry, the market demand for rare earth is limited, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly low, the on-site supply is normal, the recent demand for light rare earth is general, and some market prices are slightly down. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably control the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand is low, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is declining.

Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents said that by 2025, new energy vehicle sales accounted for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the implementation of preferential enterprise policies for rare earth industry, which said that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises and form the collection of relevant supporting policies for the resumption of production in rare earth industry. All rare earth enterprises should actively connect with China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association, obtain relevant policy information, accurately grasp the application requirements, strive for policy support, promote the smooth operation of rare earth industry chain, and jointly promote the stable and healthy development of the industry.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not decrease, but the domestic market demand for rare earth is not good in the near future, and the supply and demand pattern is normal, but the market price of light rare earth is at a low level in the near future, and the market price trend of rare earth is expected to maintain a low level.

1、 Price data

As of April 26, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 3680.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On April 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.13, unchanged from yesterday, 36.05% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 60.87% higher than the lowest point, 46.08, on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction this week is light, and the actual transaction price is about 3500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 25.03 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 16.94 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 32.32%; Brent crude oil is 28.08 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 24.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the “US Iraq” relationship was once again strained. OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Domestic shale oil price fluctuates little.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business club think that the international crude oil fell sharply this week, the overall demand of the domestic ship fuel market is light, the shipping market is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of fuel oil before the festival will be stable, or around 3500 yuan / ton.