I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the domestic copper price fell slightly this week, with the average domestic spot copper price of 47815 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 47403.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 0.86%, 1.57% from the beginning of the year and 5.14% from the year before.

II. Market Analysis

Copper futures and Lun Copper prices: Shanghai Copper Index opened 47,950 yuan earlier this week, then went down under pressure, and rose 47,000 yuan at the end of the week to stabilize the shock. This week, it closed at 47,130 yuan, a decline of 0.78%. LME copper in March fell from a high of $5964.5 to $5776 at the beginning of this week, with a 2.22% drop in the end of the week closing at $5833.5.

On the supply side, data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed a shortage of 27,000 tons in the global copper market from January to July 2019 and a global mine copper output of 11.62 million tons from January to July 2019, 0.5% lower than the same period last year. From January to July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 13.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% over the same period last year. The output of India and Chile decreased significantly, by 96,000 tons and 19,000 tons, respectively. In July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 1.991 million tons.

Consumption: From January to July 2019, global copper consumption was 13.29 million tons, compared with 13.78 million tons in the same period last year. From January to July 2019, China’s apparent demand was 6.754 million tons, down 3.9% from the same period last year. The output of the 28 EU countries fell 2.6% and the demand was 1.85 million tons, down 6.0% year-on-year. In July 2019, consumption was 1.94 million tons.

In terms of inventory, inventory at the end of July was 144,000 tons higher than that at the end of December 2018. This increase includes 156,000 tons net shipment to LME warehouse and 31,000 tons net shipment to Shanghai warehouse. COMEX copper stocks fell 65,000 tons in the first seven months of this year.

On the macro level, the domestic economic data released this week are generally poor, coupled with the worries about stagflation caused by the surge in crude oil prices over the weekend, and Sino-US trade relations remain unclear.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the copper analysts of Shangshu Nonferrous Branch believe that the supply side is tight to support the copper price. Although the copper market fundamentals are expected to improve, they still need to wait for time. The short-term spot market is tightly balanced, and there are still opportunities to boost copper prices in the context of late demand expectations and monetary easing. The short-term copper market maintains a narrow fluctuation trend.

On September 24, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 93.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.44% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 74.42% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is low, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 300 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot source in the field. Recently, the hydrofluoric acid market is not moving, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices slightly lower. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9300-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but demand is poor, hydrofluoric acid market is weak.

Upstream fluorite market prices remained low, up to 24 days fluorite price was 2877.78 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices declined to a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, hydrofluoric acid market prices were affected by lower raw material fluorite prices at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline slightly.

On September 23, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 70.07, up 0.24 points from yesterday, down 41.67% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 44.71% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride is strong. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.

The price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6700 yuan/ton recently. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, the supply of goods on site is tight, the price of phthalic anhydride keeps high, the import market of phthalic anhydride in port area is rising, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in port is good, the stock of port is declining sharply, the quotation of phthalic outside Price is based on negotiation. Recently, domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased in the field. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride in the upstream raw material, the market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP price is higher, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is higher, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8050-8250 yuan/ton, downstream price has risen, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a higher trend in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. The average market price of East China during the week to the weekend is about 1740 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week, and 18.05% lower than that of last year. The light soda commodity index on September 20 was 89.23, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.29% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market was light and stable, and the trading atmosphere was mild. At present, the domestic mainstream light alkali factory price was 1650-1770 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream terminal price was 1750-1850 yuan/ton. This week, the heavy alkali market did not change much, the manufacturers’shipment situation was relatively smooth, and the market stock was bullish. It is anticipated that manufacturers will implement more end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: In the downstream area, the price of sodium pyrosulfite has been stable this week, the overall market performance is general, the raw material cost has been weakly adjusted, the upstream and downstream trade entities are cautious in buying and selling, the downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite may continue to operate at a low level.

This week, downstream glass continued last week’s trend, rising steadily and moderately. After the G12 summit round table of glass industry, some enterprises in North China and East China began to announce the plan of increase, but the implementation still needs to be implemented. The production and marketing of central and southern China are basically balanced, and the short-term market is mainly stable. From the perspective of sub regions, the situation of north-south differentiation continues. The market as a whole maintained a steady and moderate upward trend.

Industry: This week, the domestic soda market is running smoothly, the output of soda manufacturers has increased, the overall market turnover is mild, more active order delivery is the main, the current delivery pressure is not large, price transaction is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market is running steadily, the supply of enterprises is relatively stable, downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm of end users is not high, stable price mentality is strong. It is expected that the consolidation of the soda market will be the main trend in the short term, and the demand of the downstream market will be taken into account.

Price trends:

The domestic caustic soda market is still in a strong price-raising atmosphere, and manufacturers in North China continue to raise their ex-factory quotations. As for liquid chlorine, the market price in North China is still relatively high, and the market is mostly stable for the time being. According to the monitoring data of business associations, affected by the low inventory, the caustic soda market rose this week. Business associations monitored the price of Shandong as a whole. So far, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was 782 yuan/ton, up 9.03% in a week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The market price of caustic soda in Shandong continues to rise. 32% of the turnover of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is more than 830 yuan/ton. The main reason for this price rise is the impact of low inventory. At present, the National Day is approaching, the transportation policy of liquid chlorine in various regions is still unclear, and manufacturers have more inquiries for stock. At present, part of Shandong geodetic plant restoration, Jinmao Aluminum plant has been shut down for three months, the recovery date is not yet clear; Hebei Jiheng overhaul completed on September 1-7, Jiangsu Anbang and Wenwen plant production reduction.

Industry chain: At present, the market of liquid chlorine is stable. The transaction price in Shandong is about 550 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is about 600 yuan/ton, and in North China is basically stable. The quotation of alumina is stable. At present, the quotation of alumina in Shandong is 2600 yuan/ton, that of alumina in Shanxi and Henan is 2580-2620 yuan/ton, and that of Guizhou is about 600 yuan/ton. 2500 yuan per ton, alumina manufacturers are apparently reluctant to sell, and the supply of alumina will rise in the later period. The pressure of price rise is greater, and short-term shocks are mainly stable.

Business analysts believe that the price of liquor-alkali market in North China continues to rise, the market performance in East China and Henan is relatively good, while the domestic liquor-chlorine market mostly maintains a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong area 830-850 yuan/ton.