On January 28, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 112.67, down 0.38 points from yesterday, down 19.77% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 110.24% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been declining recently. As of 29 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12333.33 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient, the situation of goods on the spot is getting worse recently. Some Enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks and slightly lowered their ex-factory prices, but due to the high level of raw material market. Supported by this, the price decline of hydrofluoric acid market is very limited. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 12000-13000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent high prices of raw materials market, fluorite prices are in a high state, but the price of raw materials fluorite slightly declined, the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly lower.

Recent downstream refrigerant product maintenance devices are more, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water out-of-factory quotation fell to 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment overhaul increased, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist high prices of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be around 12,000 yuan/ton.

Beijing time, 28 news, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on Sunday the lifting of sanctions on three companies related to Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska, including Rusal, En + Group and JSC EuroSib Energo.

According to the news, “The Foreign Assets Control Office of the US Treasury today (OFAC) cancelled the sanctions imposed on Russian En + Group,’Rusal’and European Siberian Energy Company according to a notice sent to Congress on December 19, 2018,” but all the sanctions against Jeripaska are still in effect.

The U.S. Treasury Department said last 20 that sanctions against the three companies would be lifted within 30 days because “these companies have pledged to drastically reduce Deripaska’s ownership and control”.

Aluminum Russia is the world’s second largest aluminium producer, accounting for 6% of global aluminium supply.

CEO of Russian Lukoll Oil Company: Under the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producer reduction agreement, the company will reduce production by 30,000 barrels per day in the first quarter; crude oil production is expected to be flat in 2019; the crude oil industry is satisfied with the oil price level of $60 per barrel.

In December 2018, OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 751,000 barrels a day to 31.58 million barrels a day, the biggest decline in two years. As expected, Saudi Arabia contributed the largest decline, with a decrease of 468,000 barrels per day to 10,553,000 barrels per day.

Libya Cheng is the second largest country in terms of production reduction, with crude oil production decreasing by 172,000 barrels per day to 928,000 barrels per day annually, mainly due to the shutdown of Sharara, the largest oil field, due to irresistible factors. Influenced by nuclear sanctions, Iran’s crude oil production fell by 159,000 barrels per day in December to 2769,000 barrels per day, making it the third country to contribute to this month’s reduction.

OPEC is scheduled to meet in Vienna from April 17 to 18 to review the reduction agreement that began in January. Despite OPEC-led cuts in oil supply, U.S. oil production last week was close to 12 million barrels a day. Some traders and investors worry that global supply growth will exceed demand this year.

Starting from January 14, boosted by the capital construction plan, the main lead contract in Shanghai experienced 4 Lianyang, with the highest price reaching 17810 yuan/ton. From the basic point of view, near the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises have holidays, demand performance tends to be flat, it is difficult to boost lead prices. On the supply side, although the inventory of lead market is still at a low level and the price difference between primary lead and reclaimed refined lead is small, the price of reclaimed lead raw material waste battery keeps falling, resulting in the continuous decline of production cost of reclaimed lead, and the support for lead price gradually weakens. When market sentiment returns to calm, lead prices will return to the fundamentals, showing a weak trend of oscillation.

Business Startup Rate Continuously Declining

With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises have a holiday one after another, and the start-up rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has declined one after another. According to the survey, the weekly comprehensive start-up rate of lead-acid battery enterprises was 61.5% last week, which was lower than 66% in December 2018. As the Spring Festival approached, some remote areas began to stop logistics, distributors purchased less, and manufacturers finished pre-festival battery storage, and adjusted production line start-up rate one after another, so this week many provinces lead-acid battery enterprises start-up rate generally down. In addition, SMM said that on January 20, some small lead-acid batteries enterprises will begin their holidays one after another, while large and medium-sized enterprises will gradually stop production according to the production process until January 27-31, and lead-acid batteries enterprises around the country will stop production centrally.

From the downstream data, China Automobile Industry Association data show that in December 2018, China’s automobile production was 25234,000, down 17.03%, the same period in 2017 was -0.70%, the same period in 2018 was 16.33 percentage points lower than the same period in 2017.

Waste battery prices continue to fall

Due to poor demand, the current profit level of recycled lead enterprises has fallen. It is estimated that as of January 22, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is 325 yuan/ton, which is lower than the average profit value of 536.25 yuan/ton in December 2018. However, as far as recycled lead used batteries are concerned, the price of waste batteries has been declining since October 2018. As of January 21, the price of Shanghai non-ferrous grid start-up car waste batteries (white shell withholding waste liquid) is 8,600 yuan/ton, which is lower than 9350 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The cost of recycled lead production is 16,000 yuan/ton, which is lower than 17,250 yuan/ton in the same period of 2018.

If renewable lead enterprises lose money, they will choose to stop production, then the cost of production of renewable lead will support the price of lead. However, due to the continued decline of the old price of waste battery, the cost of renewable lead will decline, so the support of the future lead market is expected to gradually decline.

In addition, according to the survey, due to the end of the year, production and marketing of refineries and the recovery of refinery maintenance, in December 2018, the operating rate of primary smelters increased year-on-year. Data show that in December 2018, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in China was 66.06%, 2.96% higher than that in November, and 6.33% higher than that in November. The start-up rate of primary lead smelters increased year on year, indicating an increase in lead supply. In a word, the decrease of the price of waste battery leads to the decrease of the production cost of recycled lead, and the start-up rate of the original lead smelter increases greatly year-on-year. The supply side of lead market also causes some pressure on the price of lead.

In summary, near the Spring Festival, inventory has rebounded, lead-acid battery business startup rate continues to decline, demand-side performance tends to be flat. On the supply side, lower prices of waste batteries will weaken the cost support of recycled lead, and the increase in the start-up rate of primary lead smelters also indicates an increase in the supply of primary lead in the short term. After the market mood gradually returns to calm, period lead or under the influence of empty fundamentals operates under pressure.

London, Jan. 21, reported that copper prices fell on Monday as data showed that China’s economic growth had cooled and activity was expected to slow before the Spring Festival holidays, heightening market concerns about China, the world’s major consumer market demand.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper index closed down 1.2% at $5,981 a tonne. Last week, copper hit a three-week high of $6,077 a tonne.

Vivienne Lloyd, an analyst at Macquarie, said, “Before and during the Spring Festival holidays, everything came to a standstill, which weakened the market.”

“The damage to copper prices caused by the trade war has been assimilated, so any form of reconciliation is good news.”

China’s economy cooled in the fourth quarter, frustrated by weak domestic demand and US tariff pressure, lowering its annual growth rate to 6.6% in 2018, the lowest level in nearly 30 years.

The Spring Festival holidays begin on February 4 and end on August 8, but many factories close one week before the Spring Festival.

Concerns about the recent tin supply in the LME market have led to a substantial premium of more than $100 per ton on spot tin over three-month tin.

LME approved a tin inventory of 1,090 tons, about a third of last December’s level. Behind the market tension are large holdings of tin warrants and spot contracts.

Three-month tin closed up 0.2% at $20,650 a tonne, close to the seven-month high of $20,770 hit last week.

Aluminum fell 1.0% to $1,852 a tonne.

Zinc rose 0.3% to $2,588.

Lead prices closed unchanged, but ended up 0.7% higher at $2,012.

Nickel fell 0.2% to $11,800 a ton.