Nickel price maintain on a high level

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National day after the nickel price by Shandong Linyi Area Limited 50% News of the impact of a strong breakthrough holiday operating range, the maximum hit 12165 U.S. dollars/ton, and the Shanghai-nickel main contract in the breakthrough early highs after the rally suspended. But the author thinks, in the short supply tight situation is difficult to improve, nickel price will maintain high operation.
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Steel mills profit repair, nickel demand steady growth

 

Data show that China’s GDP fell slightly in the three quarter, for the first time the rebound cycle fell, and triggered the four quarter continued to fall in the worry, but this year the first three quarters of GDP growth rate reached 6.9%, coupled with the September commercial housing sales in more than two years of negative growth, and above the scale of industrial value-added and social consumer goods retail growth rebound. Overall, macroeconomic resilience is far exceeding expectations.

 

At present, under the condition that the profit of steel mill is repaired and maintained better, the author thinks that the demand of nickel will not decrease sharply and the probability of maintaining steady growth is higher. According to China’s United Steel Network statistics, September, the domestic 27 mainstream stainless steel production of 2.1469 million tons, the chain fell 1.59% in August, year-on-year growth of 4.94%, the October steel production is expected to increase slightly in September. According to the production of various steel mills statistics, the total planned output will reach 2.1537 million tons, the chain year-on-year growth of less than 1%, although the chain increase is not small, but the crude steel production of 300 of the proportion of ascension, support nickel demand steady growth. In 2016, 300 of the crude steel accounted for 49%, and this year the ratio has risen to 50%, and nickel-stainless steels are expected to grow by 4% per cent this year.

 

Structural shortages widen the nickel plate gap

 

The production of nickel-iron has caused steel mills to increase consumption of nickel plates. Nickel iron and nickel can be used in stainless steel production, and at the end of September, Linyi Environmental Protection Bureau issued a message, decided since November to guide the Shandong Province Steel enterprises in the heating season to the arrival of the wrong peak limit cut-off, including nickel Iron Enterprises include: Lingang Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., Linyi Jinhai Technology Co., Ltd., Shandong Xinhai Technology Co. In the next 4 months or will face a 50% adjustment, which means that the impact of the local 4000-5000 tons of metal quantity/month, Nickel Iron supply will lead to a shortage of nickel iron supply situation, steel mills to buy nickel plate for stainless steel production, nickel plate consumption increased.

 

In the background of the production of Ni-Fe, the consumption of NI-plate increases, and the output of Ni-ni is reduced because of the increasing demand of nickel sulfate. In lieu of consumption, due to the use of the habit and nickel pellets in the domestic non deliverable, in the domestic circulation and the use of small, resulting in the domestic nickel plate has been in the inventory status, the latest stock exchange reported 48,300 tons, the decline of 45600 tons earlier than earlier. According to the research data, Nickel Electric Society inventory reported 105,300 tons, a decline of 82,700 tons earlier than earlier.
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And for the import of LME nickel plate supplement Domestic this matter, I think not optimistic. Although LME nickel inventories increased by 14,000 tonnes at the beginning of the year, the nickel-plate ratio fell to a recent 26% from 40% at the start of the year, with the latest nickel plate inventories of 99,000 tonnes, mainly in the European region, while the Asian stock is only 30,000 tonnes in the short term and is not replenished.

 

From the recent market performance, the impact of environmental protection on the nickel supply slightly exceed expectations, spot performance better than expected, nickel plate inventory continued to decline, the possibility of a more crowded warehouse. But we need to see the nickel iron and nickel price differential narrowed, downstream will increase the proportion of nickel iron procurement, in order to reduce the decline of nickel, nickel-nickel particles and nickel, the increase in the price difference will stimulate the lower reaches of nickel ball nickel particles to replace the use of nickel, so I believe that the nickel price will remain high in the short run, but there is pressure above, Nickel Price is expected to run in the late 90,000-100,000 yuan/ton.

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