According to the plan of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors will inspect the remaining Sichuan, Jilin, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hainan, Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces according to the plan of the third batch of environmental supervision. At present, Shandong, Jilin, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places of environmental protection department of the deployment of view, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspection stationed about the end of July to August near.

Since last year, environmental protection storm constantly struck, the methanol market can not be underestimated. China’s methanol is mostly coal-based methanol plant, and the traditional coal chemical industry’s environmental problems are always criticized. Under the influence of environmental monitoring, methanol manufacturers, downstream factories have received a certain degree of implication. To the third round of environmental protection inspection stationed in Shanxi, for example, 4-5 months of local methanol enterprises have a large area shut down, the majority of downstream business downtime, the market supply and demand situation reached its peak. According to statistics, the Shanxi area involved in methanol production capacity of about 5 million tons, and in May Shanxi related to downfall production capacity as much as 2.5 million tons.

Recently, the fourth round of environmental protection on the agenda, all over the provinces, cities, counties, multi-level environmental inspection is also open. The main involved in Shandong, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Hainan, Sichuan, Jilin, Zhejiang and other places. Which is the main concentration of domestic imports in Qinghai, Xinjiang, Hainan, Sichuan, Jilin and other places have a certain methanol production capacity, while the Shandong region is the main consumption area in the north, of which Shandong area involving about 660 million tons of methanol production capacity, Up to now, it is learned that Qinghai Zhonghao 600,000 tons / year of the device plan at the end of July to repair a month, Shandong major manufacturers have no maintenance plan, and Shandong local multi-field supply flow is expected to supply side has no significant impact.

On the other hand, Shandong and other places to the traditional demand-based. At present, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE and other traditional downstream industry, the overall profit was poor, which is a long-term loss of dimethyl ether industry. According to statistics, the current dimethyl ether operating rate of only about 16%, due to long-term loss of enterprises, most enterprises are still in a parking state; formaldehyde operating rate of 29%, Linyi area as a whole is not high, supply side reform and environmental impact Background, formaldehyde multi-small business has been several shuffles. The recent MTBE plant in Shandong by the impact of environmental protection, construction has been a significant decline in the number of enterprises continue to increase, the overall operating rate dropped to 5 percent near.

On the domestic market, since June, the overall impact of the overall domestic commodity atmosphere, methanol futures continued upward, the highest rose to 2618 price, in recent months to the strong situation, driven by the mainland methanol market mentality to the better. The traditional off-season, the supply is better than expected, for the market to provide some help. And for the late August supply situation, in early August, Inner Mongolia, New Austria, Shaanxi Xianyang device restart, Qinghai Ho Ho installation maintenance. And Shandong Mingshui device in mid-July feeding, is still in the linkage test, is expected in early August 60 +35 tons / year device is normal. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng, Shandong Luxi plant 8-9 months also expected to drive, the latter part of the supply side is expected to increase, while the downstream demand growth is weak. Put aside the traditional downstream, the current port area of ​​olefins enterprises in addition to Changzhou Fu De, are normal operation, even if the late Mercedes-Benz Changzhou, the increase in demand is also difficult to increase supply.

Late market conditions, environmental protection and high pressure continued, the traditional downstream demand is expected to poor, olefin demand is also difficult to significantly improve, while the supply continued to increase expectations, weak supply and demand, the market outlook is still cautious bearish view.

Polycarbonate (PC) is a linear polymer molecule containing carbonic acid groups in the molecular chain. It can be divided into aliphatic, aromatic, aliphatic-aromatic and other types. However, it is a kind of aromatic polycarbonate ester. As a high-end petrochemical products, polycarbonate is the fastest growing demand for thermoplastic materials in five engineering plastics. It has excellent performance and has been widely used in the fields of electronic appliances, sheet containers, automobile industry, medical equipment and protective equipment. To aerospace, optical components, optoelectronic information and other emerging areas.

As an important global polycarbonate market, China’s demand for polycarbonate, growth is fast, but low self-sufficiency rate (less than four percent). In recent years, the state has introduced a number of policies to encourage the construction of polycarbonate projects, scientific research units with independent intellectual property rights in the production process of polycarbonate breakthrough, domestic enterprises began to launch, the expansion of polycarbonate project.

Asian chemical consulting that the next few years, China’s polycarbonate industry will usher in the outbreak of production capacity, the external dependence of the status quo or will become history, and enter the stage of intense competition in the market. Therefore, for the domestic polycarbonate production enterprises, for the downstream emerging market application development differentiation, high-end products will be the key to enterprise survival and development.

1. Domestic companies involved in polycarbonate business, breaking the foreign monopoly

China is one of the first countries to start polycarbonate technology development and industrial production, but because of the small size of the device, the technical level is backward, poor product quality and other reasons led to the product can not compete with foreign countries. Since 2005, with the Bayer (now Kesi), Teijin, Mitsubishi and other foreign-funded enterprises began to invest in the construction of polycarbonate plant in China, China’s polycarbonate market was almost a monopoly for foreign-funded enterprises.

In recent years, domestic enterprises polycarbonate project put into operation to break the monopoly of foreign-funded enterprises.

2. China’s polycarbonate demand for high self-sufficiency rate is still low

China is a big producer of polycarbonate. As of the end of 2016, China’s polycarbonate production capacity reached 87 million tons / year, accounting for 17% of the world’s total capacity of polycarbonate (512 million tons / year).

China is the fastest growing demand for polycarbonate countries. Asian chemical consultation data show that in 2016 China’s apparent consumption of polycarbonate reached 1.725 million tons. Although China’s polycarbonate production capacity and output growth in recent years, but the external dependence has been high. In 2016, China’s polycarbonate only 60 million tons, while imports up to 131.9 million tons (net imports of 1.096 million tons), external dependence as high as 63.5%.

3. The state introduced policies to encourage and promote the development of polycarbonate industry

For the current China’s polycarbonate industry is facing a huge gap between supply and demand, imports and external dependence of the high situation, the state has introduced a series of policies to encourage the construction of polycarbonate projects to guide and promote the development of polycarbonate industry.

March 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Industrial Structure Adjustment Guide Catalog (2011) (Amendment)”, the first category of encouragement category includes 60,000 tons / year and above non-phosgene polycarbonate production plant. June 28, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued a “foreign investment industry guidance directory (revised in 2017)”, which encouraged foreign investment in the industry, including 60,000 tons / year and more non-phosgene polycarbonate (PC).

2016 April release of “oil and chemical industry,” thirteen five “Development Guide” in the “thirteen” during the development of China’s petrochemical industry seven tasks, one of the new materials in the field of chemical work is to accelerate the focus Blank products of the industrialization process, the specific tasks include the promotion of PC (polycarbonate), PEEN (polyether ether nitrile) and other engineering plastics and metallocene polyethylene, metallocene polypropylene and other high-end polyolefin resin and phenyl silicone single The development of the body.

October 2016, the Ministry of Industry issued the “petrochemical and chemical industry development plan (2016 – 2020)” will be listed as a representative of high-end polycarbonate products, predicting the next few years the average annual growth rate of polycarbonate 6.7 %, 2020 demand will reach 2.3 million tons. Planning put forward in the development of new chemical materials innovation project to speed up the development of 3D printing with PC-ABS materials such as high temperature and high strength engineering plastics.

In addition, in order to improve the public awareness of polycarbonate / bisphenol A, promote the healthy and sustainable development of China’s polycarbonate industry, actively coordinate and standardize industry behavior, enhance the overall level of the industry, polycarbonate / bisphenol A China Working Group and China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association Polycarbonate Branch (CNPCA) has been established in December 2015 and June 2017.

4. Innovative polycarbonate technology to help industry development

Polycarbonate industrial production process has developed a solution of phosgene, interfacial polycondensation phosgene, transesterification melt polycondensation (transesterification) and non-phosgene exchange melt polycondensation (non-phosgene). After years of development, China has also started a breakthrough in the field of polycarbonate technology development.

5. More than one million tons of production capacity concentrated release, differentiation and high-end into the development focus

China’s strong market demand, high added value of polycarbonate, and domestic and foreign capital technology, driven by planning, new or expansion of the polycarbonate project launched in China, the total capacity of these projects total more than 200 million tons / Year, of which a number of projects are expected to be put into operation in the next few years, when there will be more than 1 million tons / year of new production capacity concentrated release.

OPEC and non-OPEC major oil-producing countries reached an agreement at the end of November last year to boost oil prices. At that time the market a good voice, but one analyst asserted that the cut agreement will not work. Because some oil-producing countries have resorted to cheating, and American shale oil production is more resilient than ever. To the current point in time, can prove that the analyst’s concerns are justified.

OPEC VS US shale oil

Although the shale oil company’s debt level is a big problem, but the United States shale oil is indeed more flexible than before. Although OPEC members did not completely cheat, but some countries in the slowdown in production. Russia in the negotiations in the end to get a favorable result, although Russia agreed to cut 30 million barrels / day, but the output from last year’s record highs in the level of gradually reduced, so Saudi Arabia had to bear about 50 million barrels / day The burden of the burden.

Oil prices rose to around $ 50 in a month’s time, and remained at more than $ 50 in January. And then after the oil prices began to fall, first shock down, gradually lower, after all the way quickly diving. Now oil prices have returned to the level before the cut agreement reached, pessimism enveloped the market.

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities at the German commercial bank line, said the cut-off agreement would not work, but his voice was just a glimpse of the voices, Immediate increase in production agreement after the oil price is expected.

Weberger said in early December last year that the OPEC production agreement would only increase US oil production, so he maintained its oil price is expected to remain unchanged: oil prices are expected to decline below $ 50 this year, the current trend has confirmed his judgment The In addition, those who quickly raised oil prices are expected to quickly change the previous expectations, because the oil market is very pessimistic, the reality had to make them yield.

Weinberg suggested that OPEC change the strategy and return to the original plan: the maximum production of oil, stifling US shale oil to use oil prices to rebound to produce oil opportunities.

“OPEC should crash the oil price as soon as possible, stifle the US shale oil business, put it in trouble, and then strive to stabilize oil prices over the long term.” But the most important question is whether OPEC can withstand the huge reversal of the strategy. They had struggled for too long in low oil prices.

Although Weinberg’s proposal will make OPEC kill a thousand, since the loss of eight hundred, but they have not much way to choose. Now placed in front of OPEC have such a few options: 1, continue to cut oil production; 2, to expand the rate of reduction. 3, to give up production, re-start the oil war.

The first option will not make much change, and OPEC needs to make a variety of efforts. The second option may be worse than the other two. Qatar, the oil long Atiyah said that a more substantial reduction will only for the United States shale oil companies to create a new round of production to create an enabling environment, and will not allow OPEC to benefit. Shale oil hiding in the dark, waiting for OPEC to expand production cuts, when the price increases, they will increase production.

From the point of view of oil prices, to some extent, Weinberg’s proposal may be the most effective. If OPEC completely reversed the established strategy, oil prices may plummet. However, the rate of decline in oil prices will not be as serious as OPEC worried, after all, oil prices have fallen low. But this strategy may not be enough to stifle the US shale oil business.

July 1, the European Commission issued a notice that the origin of China’s melamine (Melamine) made anti-dumping sunset final ruling, ruled that if the abolition of anti-dumping measures, the dumping of the products involved in the EU industry damage will continue or recur, Decided to continue to maintain the anti-dumping measures against the products involved. The investigation period is April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2016, the damage investigation period for the January 1, 2012 to the end of the investigation period.

According to the final result: three Chinese enterprises limit the minimum import price of 1153 euros / ton, other Chinese enterprises anti-dumping duty of 415 euros / ton.

February 17, 2010, the European Commission for originating in China’s melamine for anti-dumping investigation. May 13, 2011, the EU anti-dumping on the case of positive final ruling. May 11, 2016, the European Commission on the case initiated anti-dumping sunset review investigation.

Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture Plant Protection Bureau issued an official letter, said the temporary suspension of 13 products will be accepted for registration, the suspension time from the current 28 to 30 approved. 13 products include glyphosate, paraquat, imidacloprid and so on. Details of the notice are as follows:

Temporary suspension of application (new) registration of the active ingredient (AI) list issued notice

1, at (25-5-2017) at the (27) Pesticide Conference meeting to discuss the decision, the same active ingredient (including the amount of complex preparations) more than 50 of the 13 active ingredients will be suspended for registration.

2, the relevant active ingredient compound preparation is no longer accept the application for registration. We will also discuss whether to re-accept the registration at the 30th Pesticide Conference.

30 times before the meeting to suspend the application for registration of the active ingredient list:

The same time as the above-

No.
Active ingredient
category
1
Carbendazim carbendazim
Fungicide
2
Mancozeb mancozeb
Fungicide
3
2,4 – D
herbicide
4
Glyphosate Glyphosate
herbicide
5
Paraquat Paraquat
herbicide
6
Abamectin
Insecticide
7
Acephate
Insecticide
8
Cartap Hydrochloride
Insecticide
9
Chlorpyrifos chlorpyrifos
Insecticide
10
Cypermethrin cypermethrin
Insecticide
11
Fipronil fipronil
Insecticide
12
Imidacloprid imidacloprid
Insecticide
13
Lambda-Cyhalothrin Highly effective cyhalothrin
Insecticide
It is reported that the Plant Protection Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture of Myanmar has registered a batch of plant protection products for about one year. According to the letter, the registration of the above 13 products will be suspended until 2020. During this period, the original drugs, preparations and the ingredients containing the ingredients Preparations are not allowed to declare.

These products are the best-selling mainstream products in the Myanmar market. Myanmar pesticide long-term dependence from Thailand, Vietnam and Sino-Burmese border trade imports, the registration suspension, blocking the Chinese pesticide exports to Myanmar, Burma will open up the Chinese companies have a great impact.