Recently (11.1-11.11), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the price of butadiene was 10937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.26% from 12325 yuan/ton on November 1st.

Recently (11.1-11.11), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased to 6.60%. Qilu Petrochemical recently restarted and Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has started to narrow down, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with a slight increase in supply pressure; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is dominated by weak shocks in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8475 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 8541 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a price increase of 0.79% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10816 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 10733 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a price drop of 0.77% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8475 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 8500 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a price increase of 0.29% during this period.

Starting from November, the prices of polyethylene products have fluctuated, with slight increases in linear and low-pressure product prices, and a weak trend in high-pressure product prices. Positive domestic policies have been released, and there is a positive sentiment within the market. We are exploring ways to push up prices, which has supported the polyethylene market. The supply pressure of LDPE is expected to increase, and due to the conversion of some EVA units to LDPE, the LDPE market trend is relatively weak. The reduction of domestic maintenance facilities in November and December, coupled with the gradual production of new capacity, has led to an increase in supply expectations, limiting the upward space for polyethylene. The peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and the increase in orders is gradually slowing down, with demand lower than the same period.

On November 7th, the polyethylene L2501 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8187 yuan and closed at 8270 yuan, up 56 yuan, with a high of 8285 yuan and a low of 8138 yuan, up 0.68%. Recently, the trend of polyethylene futures has been strong, supporting the spot market.

Expected increase in supply; In November, the demand for agricultural film and pipe materials gradually weakened, while the demand for packaging film was relatively good. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate and weaken.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on November 7th was 808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% from the average price of 850 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has weakened and declined, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, there has been a decrease in downstream inquiries and a weakening in demand, with many adopting a cautious attitude. At present, the export market of ammonium sulfate is not performing well and will continue to operate weakly in the short term. As of November 7th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 800-860 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market for ammonium sulfate has been weak recently, resulting in a decline in bidding prices. At present, there is no good news in the market, and downstream purchases are mainly seeking low prices, resulting in sluggish market transactions. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in early November, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 15983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.10% compared to the beginning of October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has limited changes, and there are maintenance plans in Cangzhou Dahua. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from around 81% at the beginning of the month to 79.3%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. Last week, the loose supply pattern remained unchanged, and there was little positive news on the supply side. Manufacturers were unable to raise prices, and factory pricing was under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side continues to drag down PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A stopped falling and stabilized in early November. The market for phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials of bisphenol A, has been weak and consolidated, with average support for the market. The downstream PC production of the two main forces has limited changes, while the epoxy resin production has increased and the stocking heat has slightly rebounded, which to some extent supports the consumption of bisphenol A. But in the early stage, the bisphenol A industry had a heavy load return, and the supply of goods was abundant. Overall, bisphenol A’s support for PC costs has stopped further dragging down or entered a plateau period.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. The traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October” has not been realized in terminal consumption, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues to this day. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. It is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

In early November, the PC market continued its weak trend and fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market has stopped falling and stabilized, with overall weak support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Downstream weak and rigid demand stocking makes it difficult to drive the market trend, resulting in poor flow of market goods and a profound mismatch between supply and demand. Although the price of PC has fallen below the low point of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

At the beginning of the new week, the domestic phenol market remained strong and upward. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price on November 4th was 7562.5 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the new week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7600 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 7550-7600 yuan/ton. As of the 4th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ 4-day quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7470./ 50

Shandong region/ 7600./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7600./ 0

South China region/ 7570./ 50

At the beginning of the week, the inventory at Jiangyin Port did not fluctuate significantly, maintaining at a level of 15000 tons. With the expectation of delayed arrival of domestic trade sources, traders’ intentions were high, and most offers on Monday remained firm. From a cost perspective, the spot price of pure benzene has risen, with reference transactions ranging from 7200-7350 yuan/ton. The restart of styrene maintenance facilities in the distant months has increased demand for pure benzene, which is favorable for the benzene market. From a cost perspective, it provides favorable support for downstream phenol.

The downstream bisphenol A spot market is running lightly, and overall it remains lukewarm in November. Market offers are steadily advancing, with negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

It is expected that the phenol market will continue to rise in price, and attention should be paid to the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand.