Domestic cobalt prices are rising

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on May 16th was 215900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42% compared to the cobalt price on May 14th, which was 210800 yuan/ton; The price of cobalt fluctuated and increased by 2.18% compared to May 9th at 211300 yuan/ton. Stimulated by storage news, cost support still exists, demand rebounds, and cobalt prices rebound and rise.

Demand support recovery

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Energy Administration jointly organized the 2024 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside Campaign. From May to December 2024, support policies such as exchanging old cars for new ones and filling gaps in county-level charging and swapping facilities will be implemented to directly reach consumers with “real gold and silver” discounts. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rise. In addition, the news of storage and recovery has stimulated confidence in the cobalt market, leading to a rebound in cobalt prices.

The price of MB cobalt is weak and stabilizing

According to the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in May, the price of MB cobalt weakened and stabilized, with standard grade cobalt prices slightly falling and alloy grade cobalt rising first and then falling. The decline in international cobalt prices has slowed down.

Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts from Business Society, cost support is limited, and the news of collection and storage is stimulating. In addition, the domestic demand for new energy vehicles going to rural areas has rebounded in the domestic cobalt market. Positive demand stimulates expectations for an increase in cobalt prices in the future.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from May 10th, terminal demand improved and the hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and rose. On May 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 936 yuan/ton. On May 15th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.42%.

End demand improves, hydrogen peroxide market fluctuates and rises

Starting from May 10th, the terminal paper and caprolactam industry’s procurement of hydrogen peroxide water has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has risen, with an overall quotation of around 950-1000 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is around 920 yuan/ton, stable; the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 910 yuan/ton, stable; the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is around 1000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that by the end of May, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will gradually weaken, and the future market may mainly focus on a weak downward trend.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been strong and volatile, with spot prices rising more than falling. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 14th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14700 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 0.51% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently increased. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Although some enterprises have resumed work on their installations, the market supply has increased. However, the downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for caprolactam is improving. The overall market trend of the industrial chain is moving upwards, and the support for PA6 is still sufficient.

In terms of supply: Recently, the load of PA6 production enterprises has fluctuated narrowly, with an average operating rate of around 84% and stable production. The inventory position of the enterprise has decreased, and the on-site supply of goods has decreased compared to the previous period. The supplier’s overall efforts to boost PA6 spot prices have increased.

In terms of demand: downstream, the main downstream industries have seen a rebound in production after the holiday. The operating rate of spinning has dropped to 85%, while the weaving load has risen narrowly to around 71%. Recently, there has been a strong demand for downstream purchases, leading to an increase in stocking orders for some brands. The demand side of PA6 has increased its support for spot goods.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently. Caprolactam prices have stopped falling and rebounded, increasing support for the cost side of PA6. The domestic polymerization plant has a large and stable load with small fluctuations, and the demand for stocking by end enterprises is relatively strong. Overall, the current market momentum is heating up, and trading orders are generally inclined towards pre-sales, which may overdraw some future consumption. It is expected that the PA6 market will remain stable with minor fluctuations in the short term.

Price trend:

Recently (5.6-5.11), according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market average price of anhydrous calcium chloride with a 94% content was 1325 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week. The mainstream factory quotation in the market has not changed. The price for anhydrous calcium chloride in the Central China market is 1500-2200 yuan/ton, the price for anhydrous calcium chloride in the South China market is 1250 yuan/ton, and the price for anhydrous calcium chloride in the East China market is 1200-1450 yuan/ton.

Supply side:

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of hydrochloric acid in China (4.1-5.11) has increased, mainly due to some manufacturers raising factory prices. Especially for Shandong Dongming Petrochemical, the price increase on that day reached 50 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream market for hydrochloric acid is weak, making it difficult to support high prices. The raw material hydrochloric acid market may experience an increase that is difficult to sustain, and it will shift to mainly fluctuating in the later stage.

On the demand side:

There has also been no significant increase or decrease in demand, so market prices have not been greatly impacted. In addition, market participants may also be watching and waiting for new market signals or changes. In this situation, the price of calcium chloride may continue to maintain its current stable trend or experience slight fluctuations.

Overall

On the supply side, although the overall operating rate remains high, inventory is gradually accumulating due to poor shipping performance; At the same time, the weak demand in the downstream market has led to a slow pace of shipments and significant sales pressure; It is expected that prices will stabilize slightly in the near future. Overall, the current price of calcium chloride is weak and stagnant, and market sentiment is calm. However, there is still uncertainty about the future price trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 24666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the month price of 24833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 20.33% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% from the beginning of the month’s price of 31000.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.76% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering May, the overall price of trichloromethane in China remained stable, while the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly rebounded, rising by 0.69% during the week. The slight increase in raw material costs further supported the domestic refrigerant prices. Some enterprises slightly lowered the factory price of R22 to stimulate shipments, driving the domestic R22 market price to fluctuate slightly. Overall, the overall domestic R22 market price is still operating at a high level.

Entering May, the domestic price of trichloroethylene slightly rebounded, rising by 0.31% during the week. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, rising by 0.69% during the week. The overall raw material cost continued to rise, while the downstream demand for refrigerants remained unchanged. Supported by cost and demand, the domestic R134a price fluctuated strongly this week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to remain high and strong in the short term.