According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in July saw a decline after consolidation, with the price drops of various brand products concentrated in the second half of the month. As of the afternoon of July 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.70% compared to the price on July 1st.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Due to the impact of various production cuts and the peak consumption season in the United States at the end of last month, international crude oil was at a high level. The price adjustment in mid to late July was weak, and market operators were bearish due to frequent price fluctuations. However, after the price loosened, there was trading volume and the overall decline was limited. The circulation speed of downstream propylene sources is average, and the overall price fluctuates and falls. In terms of propane, due to the rise in liquefied gas prices, propane has been pulled up and strengthened, while PDH production costs have improved. Overall, there has been a slight loosening of the support for PP from various raw materials recently.

Supply side:

In July, the load level of domestic PP enterprises reached an average of 70% of the previous operating level. There were some equipment short repairs during the month, but they were worn down by the resuming equipment, and the industry load was around 73% at the end of the month. The production level is generally stable, with a narrow increase in inventory and a narrow decrease in factory pricing for enterprises. At present, the on-site supply of goods remains abundant, and the supply pressure is stable with some increase.

In terms of demand:

The demand side of PP performed poorly throughout July, and the overall load of end enterprises remained stable. Among them, the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement is at a low season level, and the operating rate of plastic weaving enterprises is relatively low at 40%, with weak enthusiasm for replenishing inventory. Due to the high raw material prices and slow cost transfer, the direction of membrane enterprises has resulted in low profit margins, leading to replenishment operations centered around essential needs. The comprehensive operating rate of injection molding enterprises is 50%, basically flat. The trading atmosphere in the downstream market of PP is generally average, with limited new orders and mostly pre delivery contracts. The demand side creates a certain drag on the PP market.

Future forecast

At the end of the month, the domestic PP market prices still showed a downward trend. The comprehensive support for upstream raw materials is loose, and PP demand is at a low season level. Short term gains are unlikely to materialize, and the supply and demand in the future will stabilize, making it difficult to change the consumption pattern in early August. Overall, it is expected that the PP market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running steadily this week. On July 28th, the average market price of soda ash was 1926 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the week and a decrease of 3.51% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been weak and stable this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has increased month on month this week, with an increase in soda ash production and sufficient market inventory; On the demand side, the terminal market is running weakly, downstream demand is weak, and there is a tendency to seek low-priced purchases. The market trading atmosphere is average, and enterprise shipments are decreasing. Under the supply-demand game, the soda ash market is running weakly. As of July 26th, the prices of soda ash in East China have been adjusted downwards, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1950-2050 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is running weakly, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1750-1900 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices continue to decline. As of July 28th, the market average price was 17.59 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.01% compared to the market average price of 17.77 yuan/square meter on July 22nd. The glass market is operating at a high level, downstream demand is weak, on-site supply exceeds demand, and glass prices continue to decline.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 30th week of 2024 (7.22-7.26), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: calcium carbide (0.62%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-2.10%), PVC (-0.80%), and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.42%.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the operating rate of soda ash plants is relatively high, the inventory of spot alkali plants is accumulated, and the market supply is sufficient; Downstream demand is weak, multi-dimensional demand for rigid needs replenishment, and the general destocking of soda ash. It is expected that soda ash will be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly increased this week (7.19-7.26), with an average market price of 18000 yuan/ton at the end of the week and 17966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 0.19%.

This week’s market analysis

The magnesium ingot market saw a slight increase at the bottom of the fourth week of this month. At the beginning of this week, the magnesium ingot market continued its weak operation from last week, with transactions mainly focused on essential needs, and sentiment was low due to the traditional off-season. Except for a few magnesium factories undergoing maintenance, most manufacturers are still producing normally, with accumulated inventory increasing and magnesium prices remaining at a low level. Over the weekend, the manufacturer’s quotation remained firm with a slight increase.

Supply and demand side

At the beginning of the week, the downstream of the magnesium ingot market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, with limited transactions and a stalemate between supply and demand. Mid week observation requires accumulation and release, and procurement has increased.

In terms of raw materials

At the beginning of the week, the price of 75 silicon iron remained unchanged compared to last week. Maintain weak operation. The price difference is not significant. The export market is sluggish. Mid week silicon iron futures rebounded and stopped falling, while shipping costs have fallen slightly. Forming support for magnesium prices.

The price of orchid charcoal in Fugu area remains stable, and currently the orchid charcoal market is in a stable period with relatively low prices. The manufacturer has not made any adjustments to the quotation. Maintain low production and actively ship.

Future forecast

The magnesium ingot market has slightly rebounded this week, with no new growth points on the demand side. Coupled with the traditional off-season, the performance has been sluggish. It is expected that the short-term magnesium price will continue to operate steadily with a weak trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon was 12133 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and the price of activated carbon was 12066/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.55% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have remained stable this week, with some manufacturers’ quotations falling. The market is dominated by inquiries, and transactions have fallen short of expectations. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and industry insiders are mainly observing and focusing on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is weak, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

The acrylic acid market has been rising recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 24th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% compared to last Thursday (July 18th).

Cost aspect:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 23rd, the reference price of propylene was 7138.25, an increase of 0.07% compared to July 1st (7133.25). In the recent stage, the price of raw material propylene has been running narrowly and weakly, and the cost has been supported by the acrylic acid market, resulting in a decrease in low-priced acrylic acid sources.

Supply and demand side:

In recent stages, some equipment maintenance has been carried out, and the supply side has provided some support for the market. The mentality of the industry is still good, and manufacturers are firm in their offers. Downstream buyers are more cautious about purchasing high priced raw materials, mainly following up on demand and in moderation. The focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has shifted upwards.

Market forecast:

An acrylic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the acrylic acid market has been operating steadily with recent cost and supply support. In the short term, cost support may still exist, and there is relatively no significant positive support for terminal demand. Downstream rigid demand orders are the main focus. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong and wait and see in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.