On February 1, 2024, the electrolytic manganese market temporarily stabilized, with spot market prices in East China at 13900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 13900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, remaining stable.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively stable.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market in February was relatively weak. After the holiday, the operating rate of factories in the southern region remained low, and the dredging volume of Qinzhou Port decreased to 46000 tons, a decrease of 72000 tons. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the imported manganese ore inventory of Qinzhou Port increased by 1.333 million tons, with an increase of 46000 tons, including 49.2 tons for Australian ore, 3.5 tons for South African ore, 44.6 tons, 1.7 tons for Gabon ore, 30.4 tons, 0.6 tons for Gabon ore, 8.0 square meters for Brazil, 1.1 square meters for Malay ore, 0 square meters for Cote d’Ivoire, and 0 square meters for others. As of February 28th, the cost of semi carbonated carbon dioxide in Tianjin Port South Africa is around 34.5 yuan/ton, Gabon is 35.5-36 yuan/ton, and Australia is 36.3-36.5 yuan/ton; The price of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port has stabilized, with light market trading. The price of semi carbonate is around 34 yuan/ton, while the price of Australian block is 36.5-37 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian seeds is 34-35 yuan/ton.

Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the overall spot market transactions were sluggish, with downstream enterprises mainly consuming inventory. The mainstream market price remained at 12300-12500 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to before the holiday. Enterprises only resumed work after the 15th day of the first lunar month, resulting in almost stagnant market trading throughout February, and most downstream enterprises also executed their previous bidding orders. After the holiday, some companies have launched a new round of bidding, and the overall market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the guidance of the new round of steel bidding prices. However, most downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, lacking demand support, making it difficult for the market to continue to rise. The supply-demand game mentality is still strong, and the overall attitude of traders is wait-and-see. Under the supply-demand game mentality, it is expected that the market will remain temporarily stable in the short term, with a focus on the subsequent steel recruitment situation and the release of downstream replenishment demand.

The overall market for silicon manganese in February was weak. Before the holiday, some steel mills in the southern region opened bidding for February, but recent steel mills have seen sluggish transactions and continued to compress profits. There is a clear willingness to lower the price of silicon and manganese, and the market is still in a state of supply-demand imbalance. After the Spring Festival, there is a new round of bidding, and prices have shown a downward trend year-on-year. The confidence of manufacturers has decreased, and most factories in the south are still in a state of shutdown. The resumption of production time has not been determined yet. Most manufacturers in the north maintain full capacity production, and the overall inventory level in the market is relatively high. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 5900-6050 yuan/ton on February 28th, with an average market price of 6011 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% compared to the beginning of the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has recently fallen. On February 26th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3300 yuan/ton on February 19th, a decrease of 1.55%, and a month on month decrease of 5.97%.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been weak and declining. After the holiday, downstream production gradually resumed and procurement enthusiasm was still good. However, the northern region was affected by rainy and snowy weather in the middle of the week, logistics and transportation were limited, factory shipments were poor, enterprise inventory accumulated, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. The price of acetic acid in the market organized downward. As of February 26th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market first fell and then rose. On February 26th, the average price in the domestic market was 2671.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.47% compared to the price of 2659.17 yuan/ton on February 19th. The recovery of downstream demand after the holiday is relatively slow, and the downstream restocking sentiment is relatively average. In addition, due to the impact of rain and snow weather, some enterprises have limited shipments, and the overall transaction volume of the domestic methanol market is average, resulting in a narrow consolidation of methanol prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to decline. On February 26th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% compared to the price of 5725 yuan/ton on February 19th. After the holiday, acetic anhydride enterprises resumed production, and the supply of acetic anhydride increased. In addition, nationwide snowfall this week hindered regional transportation, resulting in weak transactions of acetic anhydride. At the same time, the price of raw material acetic acid was weak, and the cost support for acetic anhydride was insufficient, leading to a decline in the price of acetic anhydride.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that there is currently sufficient supply of goods in the market, and the mentality of acetic acid enterprises is not good, resulting in lower prices. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and on-site trading is limited. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate weakly in the short term.

From the data monitoring chart, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival holiday in February, the overall domestic n-propanol market has slightly increased. After the holiday, the news on the market for n-propanol was relatively calm, and the overall market for n-propanol did not change much. Some n-propanol suppliers have slightly increased the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and other factors, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of February 26th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7800 yuan/ton. The lower price is around 7150-7350 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in the Nanjing area is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall operating rate of domestic n-propanol and n-propanol plants is low, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The overall demand performance is average, and the market trading atmosphere is light. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate in consolidation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recently (2.13-2.20), the market price of ethyl acrylate in East China was 10500 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 10700 yuan/ton; The market price in South China is 10800 yuan/ton.

As of February 20th, the market trend of ethyl acrylate has also shown a narrow decline. According to data from Business Society, as of February 2nd, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in Shandong was 10450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% compared to the previous month. During the Spring Festival, after returning to the market after the holiday, enterprises gradually resumed normal production, while the majority of other enterprises did not change their production.

Prior to the holiday, most downstream enterprises completed pre holiday stocking, resulting in reduced demand for raw materials and a decline in high raw material prices in some regions, leading to a weakening of cost support; After the holiday, there may not be a significant improvement in downstream deep processing demand, and there is still a possibility of a downward trend in raw material prices in mainstream regions, with weak cost support.

During the Spring Festival holiday, enterprises are restricted in their production and will return to the market after the holiday. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming normal production, and their production has increased significantly compared to before the holiday. However, most downstream enterprises have inventory of raw materials in the early stage, and their enthusiasm for purchasing ethyl acrylate is slightly dull, resulting in a slow increase in demand.

In summary, the ethyl acrylate analyst at Shengyishe believes that in the future, there may be a decline in raw materials or inventory, and downstream terminals will maintain their demand for goods; The bearish factors on the market are gradually emerging, and there is a strong bearish atmosphere among businesses. However, considering the losses suffered by ethyl acrylate companies in the early stage, the business offers are slightly firm, and it is expected that the market price of ethyl acrylate will remain stable and weaken after the holiday.

Product name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (February 19th): 2725 yuan/ton

On February 19th, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly decreased, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to February 18th, a decrease of 1.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.13%. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2500 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2400 yuan/ton. The terminal price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is around 2860 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of about 4 million tons. The downstream market for potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline, with a combination of bearish factors.

In the future, domestic potassium chloride prices may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The average import market price of potassium chloride is around 2700 yuan/ton.