According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 13th to 20th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports increased from 2420 yuan/ton to 2488 yuan/ton. During the cycle, prices increased by 2.79%, with a month on month increase of 1.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.75%. Due to the impact of heavy snow weather in some areas, transportation is restricted, freight rates have increased, delivery speed has slowed down, social inventory in consumer areas has been affected, and the circulation of methanol in the region has decreased, resulting in an increase in downstream delivery prices.

As of the close on December 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2384 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2438 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2376 yuan/ton. It closed at 2430 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 48% or 2.02% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1233363 lots, with a position of 1220026 lots and a daily increase of -6448.

In terms of cost and supply, recently affected by the cold wave, many parts of China have experienced heavy snowfall and a sharp drop in temperature. The demand for heating electricity has further increased, and the daily consumption of power plants has shown an overall upward trend, driving market sentiment and expectations to improve. Considering the impact of snowfall on the transportation of vehicles, and the fact that power plants will experience a phase of high coal consumption, the enthusiasm for replenishing storage will increase, and procurement demand may be released to a certain extent. The meteorological forecast shows that the new wave of cold wave has strong strength, with a wider range of cooling and widespread rainy and snowy weather, which will provide positive support for coal prices in the short term. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Due to the shutdown of the Qingzhou Tianan plant, MTBE demand will decrease; Downstream chlorides: The shutdown and maintenance of the Jiangxi Li Wen plant have reduced the demand for chlorides; Downstream formaldehyde: The Lianyi formaldehyde unit operates under reduced load, reducing formaldehyde demand; Downstream acetic acid: Dalian Hengli has production expectations, and the main factories in Southwest China have maintenance plans, resulting in an increase in demand for acetic acid; The demand for dimethyl ether has little fluctuation. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 19th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 331.00 to 332.00 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is between 100.00 and 101.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 296.00-297.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 10.25 euros/ton.

In the future, it is predicted that rainy and snowy weather in many areas will continue to affect transportation efficiency, and the arrival situation between regions will vary, resulting in certain market fluctuations. The methanol analyst of Business Society predicts that the short-term domestic methanol market situation will mainly consolidate and operate.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since December, bearish sentiment has been suppressed, terminal demand has been weak, and the market has been continuously falling. On December 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 890 yuan/ton. On December 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.37%.

Low terminal demand, weak hydrogen peroxide market, and declining trend

Since December, the market for terminal paper printing and caprolactam has performed poorly, with a decrease in the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased and a lack of market sales. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in price support, and hydrogen peroxide prices continue to decline. On December 19th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market dropped to 833 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 7% compared to the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that some hydrogen peroxide companies have stopped maintenance, and the market supply is tightening. The hydrogen peroxide market is expected to experience a bottoming out rebound in the future.

Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the zinc price was 21044 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20692 yuan/ton on December 11th. The expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States, combined with macroeconomic benefits, has led to a volatile rise in zinc prices this week.

Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts

On December 13th local time, the Federal Reserve held a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to discuss interest rates and issued a statement that the current rate hike cycle may have ended and the rate cut cycle is about to begin: the Federal Reserve will have three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. At this point, the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in decades has begun to shift, and the historic monetary tightening cycle in the United States may come to an end. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut signal has boosted market enthusiasm. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index rebounded and closed higher, while the non-ferrous metal sector rose together.

Macro data is positive

According to S&P’s global market intelligence data, the initial PMI for the Markit service industry in the United States in December was 51.3, a new high since July, higher than the expected 50.7, and a value of 50.8 before November. This is the eleventh consecutive month of expansion in the service industry PMI. The initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the United States for December fell to 48.2, lower than the expected 49.5, and was 49.4 before November. This is the lowest number since August this year, reversing the previous expansion trend. The Markit service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI in the United States reached new highs since July in December, while the manufacturing industry PMI continued to shrink. The US economy slightly rebounded in December, ending the year at its fastest growth rate since July. Markit’s service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI have reached new highs since July, which is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, with zinc ingots following suit; However, the PMI of the manufacturing industry has decreased, and the demand for zinc ingots is insufficient, with limited support for the rise in zinc prices.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the positive support of US macro data have led to a volatile rise in zinc prices this week. However, the weak US manufacturing industry and insufficient demand support in the zinc market have made it difficult for zinc prices to continue rising. Overall, the oversupply of zinc in the market has not changed, and it is expected that zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations and consolidation in the future.

This week (12.11-12.15), the domestic dimethyl ether market rebounded strongly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3650 yuan/ton on December 11th, and 3770 yuan/ton on December 15th, with an increase of 3.29% during the cycle and a decrease of 18.4% compared to the same period last year.

As of December 15th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3750 yuan/ton

The overall domestic dimethyl ether market has risen this week, with mainstream prices in Henan around 3650 yuan/ton. The raw material methanol price has remained relatively strong this week, providing stronger support for dimethyl ether. Affected by the cooling down, downstream concentrated replenishment has driven effective flow of market goods, resulting in a decrease in enterprise inventory and a firm upward trend in prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated downward this week, with a decrease of 0.46% from 2441 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2430 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

Overall, the downstream replenishment of the dimethyl ether market has ended, and demand will return to a weak position. At the same time, the price center of raw material methanol is unstable, and it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3500 yuan/ton on December 8th, and 3500 yuan/ton on December 14th. The market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4073 yuan/ton on December 8th, and 4056 yuan/ton on December 14th. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.41%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate remained stable and slightly decreased. The price of raw material phosphate ore is strong, and the price of raw material sulfur has increased, providing favorable support on the cost side. Downstream demand is weak, market inquiries have decreased, new transactions are limited, and many ammonium phosphate manufacturers have suspended their quotations. Although there is currently support for pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, the support may weaken in the future. As of December 14th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3350-3450 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3500 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the domestic sulfur price has risen this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the market supply is stable. The intention to enter the downstream market for goods has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. Refinery shipments are smooth, and inventory has decreased. Manufacturers have a positive attitude and will adjust their prices based on their own shipment situation. As of December 14th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1096.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable and operational this week. At present, the overall atmosphere of the phosphate ore market is still good, and the mentality of phosphate ore holders is normal. Some mining companies are waiting for new orders to land next year. It is expected that the short-term trend of the phosphate ore market will be mainly stable with minor fluctuations. As of December 14th, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the trading atmosphere in the ammonium phosphate market has been poor recently, and the demand side has continued to be weak, resulting in a significant stabilization and slight decline in the ammonium phosphate market. Currently, there is still support from costs and pending orders. It is expected that the short-term market situation for ammonium phosphate will be weak, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.